2024 Presidential Race

[Vol8188]

Don't know. All those you posted are well within margin of error and are national polling. 538 is a break down of electoral map

But if trump is within the margin of error nationally, it’ll be a blow out.

 

[McDad]

But if trump is within the margin of error nationally, it’ll be a blow out.

Show your abacus on this, Newton.

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

the odd thing to me is how 538 was slightly favoring Trump maybe 5-6 days ago. a new set of polls (swing state) came out that show up in RCP but they were all before (I think) the assassination attempt. between that and the RNC convention I'm guessing 538 will switch back to a Trump lead.

538's new model is just behaving very weirdly. I can understand the incorporation of "fundamentals" that favor Biden but, as you pointed out, where were those fundamentals when Trump was winning ~515 simulations less than two weeks ago? How are national and state-level polls (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) coming in with Trump favored yielding an even greater Biden advantage in the model? There's also some general weirdness in a lot of the simulations with Biden with a larger percentage of the vote in Maine than in either of its two districts, an absolute impossibility, so it's becoming kind of funny to look every day and see Biden move further and further ahead when none of the available inputs seem to yield such an outcome.

Either way, there's a lot of time between now and 11/5 but I can't see Trump losing this barring an unbelievably massive October Surprise. 2020 was the perfect confluence of garbage for Trump; between his grating personality fueled by Tweets, a Catch-22 in COVID-19 and the BLM Summer (especially its outsized impact in Wisconsin/the upper Midwest and Georgia), lots of people were really excited to oust him. Now, his blemishes are... court cases? An "insurrection" that happened almost four years ago? Trump was remarkably close to winning in 2020 despite his opponent notching record turnout; how likely is it that Biden will get support at the polls/through the mail in droves now that he's the one dealing with the Catch-22 (Israel), abysmal media coverage and less enthusiasm against Trump?

 

[kiddiedoc]

Show your abacus on this, Newton.

 

[McDad]

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How do those tables = if in MoE Trump wins in blowout?

I think Trump wins, but I don't see a blowout even if within any MoE from polls or forecasts.

 

[kiddiedoc]

The popular vote in areas like NYC and Cali drives up the numbers for the D candidate. But, thank God for the Electoral College, they only get x number of EC votes.

For reference, Biden got more votes in Cali than Trump in 2020 than the entire population of states like Alabama and Kentucky, and nearly as many more than the pop of Tennessee.

 

[kiddiedoc]

How do those tables = if in MoE Trump wins in blowout?

I think Trump wins, but I don't see a blowout even if within any MoE from polls or forecasts.

I would assume he is counting on several swing states going the other way. It really will come down to 5-7 states, by my estimation.

 

[kiddiedoc]

Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, NC.

Obviously Trump needs to motivate the working class to get out and vote, and it would be especially helpful if some of the AA and Hispanic vote goes his way.

 

[McDad]

Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, NC.

Obviously Trump needs to motivate the working class to get out and vote, and it would be especially helpful if some of the AA and Hispanic vote goes his way.

Understood.

Just do not see Ds energized to vote for the Husk of Joe Biden.

 

[LadyVolette]

The popular vote in areas like NYC and Cali drives up the numbers for the D candidate. But, thank God for the Electoral College, they only get x number of EC votes.

For reference, Biden got more votes in Cali than Trump in 2020 than the entire population of states like Alabama and Kentucky, and nearly as many more than the pop of Tennessee.

Yep, if it weren’t for the electoral college, New York and California would decide every election.. which is why the Dems want to want do away with it so badly

 

[OrangeTsar]

For anyone doubting the wisdom of Trump’s VP pick, please consider that Vance’s 2016 Book Hillbilly Elegy has shot up to number one on the Amazon best seller list. And the movie adaptation is number 6 most watched on Netflix.
Folks, this is a book by a VICE Presidential candidate. When is the last time you can even name a book by a VP candidate? That kind of exposure would cost 10s of millions in ad buys; but people are actually PAYING MONEY to read a long and thoughtful book by a conservative.
A huge point of Irony is that the movie adaptation was directed by ultra lib Ron Howard. I read the book when it first came out; but hadn’t watched it at the time. I watched it last night and have to say that one of Hollywood’s stereotypical Libs unknowingly produced what would become the best two hour commercial for a Republican candidate ever made.
And remember this, Trump now has a slight lead in Pennsylvania. Expect to see Vance campaigning there heavily. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, there is no way Biden wins the White House.

 

[OrangeTsar]

Yep, if it weren’t for the electoral college, New York and California would decide every election.. which is why the Dems want to want do away with it so badly

If you want to see why the EC matters, look at this map of France where the conservatives swept pretty much the whole Country but Paris alone basically overruled them all

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

I say Biden. They're all in at this point.

God almighty is this depressing.

 

[Vol737]

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The problem is listed at the bottom of the search list that populated…GOOGLE. I try to use different search engines, but it’s still difficult sometimes to just go find simple information. It’s almost like “somebody” wants it that way. Google is the worst of them in suppressing information, imo.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Understood.

Just do not see Ds energized to vote for the Husk of Joe Biden.

You vastly underestimate how much they HATE Mr Trump. It's funny that they talk about love, but their entire being is fueled by hatred of the man.

I'll bet they really don't even know why at this point.

 

[OrangeTsar]

Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, NC.

Obviously Trump needs to motivate the working class to get out and vote, and it would be especially helpful if some of the AA and Hispanic vote goes his way.

This is EXACTLY why Trump picked Vance as his VP instead of going for a gender or racial balance VP pick. The working class in PA, MI, and WI decide this election

 

[Sea Ray]

Don't know. All those you posted are well within margin of error and are national polling. 538 is a break down of electoral map

We've seen from recent elections that in order for a Democrat to win the electoral college, he/she has to beat Trump by at least 3 pts in the overall popular vote. Taking this into consideration, is it still within the margin of error?

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

In NAACP Speech, Biden Calls to 'Lower the Temperature' and Then Proceeds to Blast Trump

 

[LadyVolette]

For anyone doubting the wisdom of Trump’s VP pick, please consider that Vance’s 2016 Book Hillbilly Elegy has shot up to number one on the Amazon best seller list. And the movie adaptation is number 6 most watched on Netflix.
Folks, this is a book by a VICE Presidential candidate. When is the last time you can even name a book by a VP candidate? That kind of exposure would cost 10s of millions in ad buys; but people are actually PAYING MONEY to read a long and thoughtful book by a conservative.
A huge point of Irony is that the movie adaptation was directed by ultra lib Ron Howard. I read the book when it first came out; but hadn’t watched it at the time. I watched it last night and have to say that one of Hollywood’s stereotypical Libs unknowingly produced what would become the best two hour commercial for a Republican candidate ever made.
And remember this, Trump now has a slight lead in Pennsylvania. Expect to see Vance campaigning there heavily. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, there is no way Biden wins the White House.

Didn’t his mom die from a heroin overdose? and he put himself through law school? Not your typical Millennial.. wow

 

[OrangeTsar]

Didn’t his mom die from a heroin overdose? and he put himself through law school? Not your typical Millennial.. wow

At the end of the film in 2017, it said she had been sober for 6 years. She is still alive as far as I know.
With college, he joined the marines and used the GI bill to attend OSU where he complete his undergraduate degree in only two years (yes I may actually have to vote for a BUCKEYE ). He did work his way through law school with the help of financial aid.

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

It's a sad state of affairs w/Creepy Joe. He's ready for the old folks home for some R&R.

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

 

[Sea Ray]

Where were these Democrats during the primaries? That was the time to voice this discontent

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Questions I hope Trump is asked and forced to answer directly:

1) what would you do if Russia attacks Poland?

Maybe that will be a debate 2 question, and puddinpants will answer it too.. or when the ChiComs invade Taiwan.

Your boi has a hell of a lot more to lose in those questions