Statistician and polling analyst Nate Silver says that late-election polling groups are “herding” their survey results, or fidgeting with the fundamentals to rig the outcomes of their surveys. A statistically anomalous amount of October poll results show Vice President Kamala Harris and former...
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“This is a clear-as-day example of what we call herding: the tendency of some polling firms to move with the flock by file-drawering (not publishing) results that don’t match the consensus or torturing their turnout models until they do,” the polling analyst said.
In addition to Silver, Nate Cohen, the chief political analyst for The New York Times, has also voiced some concern that polling results may be flawed. Herding notwithstanding, Cohen says that pollsters may still be undercounting Trump’s support because of the difficulty of projecting his voter base.
“Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,” Cohen
said of the latest
New York Times/Sienna College poll, the final poll for the paper before the 2024 election."