2024 Presidential Race

#65,204
#65,204
Orangeburst said:
mercy..gonna start packing myself

6abc.com

Italian village offers $1 homes to Americans upset by the US election result

The mayor of the village said he loves the United States and is convinced Americans are the best people to help revive his community.
6abc.com 6abc.com

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Just be careful. If it is the same deal I was researching, you have to commit to spending a not inconsequential amount on improvements to the often neglected properties. Which also brings in the language and cultural complexities of Italian contractors and building codes.
But if you have free time and a good supply of patience, I say “Go for it” 👍
 
#65,208
#65,208
Boston Vol said:
I’m heading to Germany on Sunday for a few weeks. You guys have fun on Tuesday night, and good luck with whatever the immediate aftermath looks like. Here’s my two cents for Tuesday: keep an eye on Virginia. Harris will certainly carry the state, but the margin and timing of the call could indicate who’s going to win the election. In 2016, Clinton was expected to cruise to victory, but it was razor thin for a long time and wasn’t called until nearly 11 pm. In 2020, Biden won easily, and the race was called a little after 7:30.
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Just as I expected, Virginia told the tale of the election. Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020 and romped to an easy national win. Kamala, like Hillary in 2016, underperformed the polls, narrowly won the state by just 5 points, and lost the election.
 
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#65,210
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#65,216
Boston Vol said:
Just as I expected, Virginia told the tale of the election. Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020 and romped to an easy national win. Kamala, like Hillary in 2016, underperformed the polls, narrowly won the state by just 5 points, and lost the election.
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I remembered your point about the “timing” of the call for Virginia for Kamala.

On election night at about 9PM I looked at my wife, who’s a huge Democrat, while Virginia was on the screen, uncalled - and said “that ain’t good…”
 
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#65,217
#65,217
Allan Lichtman? Is that you?


Rifleman said:
I built a data model using modeled registrations and demographics of the swing states. Based on that, and I could always be wrong, but it's pretty interesting how boring this election looks. D popular vote win, blue wall holding, maybe scraping through in the Southwest because of some terrible candidates for Senate helping with Dem coattails.

* NC may take Georgia's place in blue, and I expect that to be the closest state. Otherwise, 2020 and 2024 are much alike.

* There are very few undecideds compared to any other election. In 2016, there were undecideds everywhere. Trump has either charmed or repulsed almost every living American.

* I do, however, predict Trump will win Erie County, PA. I expect a lot of conspiracy theories on that one as it usually tracks with the state but will break that cycle this time.

* In a Trump win, he probably sweeps these states because some portion of the Harris coalition abandoned her. College educated white men for example, but I haven't seen much smart targeting from Trump's group yet. He seems to be spending as though he's running for the VNPF President position, which he already has.

* Harris will almost certainly have to work with a GOP Senate and won't be able do much of anything.
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#65,218
#65,218
Vol8188 said:
Allan Lichtman? Is that you?
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* In a Trump win, he probably sweeps these states because some portion of the Harris coalition abandoned her.

That's exactly what happened. Key demos flipped to either Trump or the couch in the blue wall states. Overall, the electorate doesn't look like it's has changed at all as evidenced by the house results.
 
#65,220
#65,220
Rifleman said:
* In a Trump win, he probably sweeps these states because some portion of the Harris coalition abandoned her.

That's exactly what happened. Key demos flipped to either Trump or the couch in the blue wall states. Overall, the electorate doesn't look like it's has changed at all as evidenced by the house results.
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But your model was completely wrong, correct?
 
#65,221
#65,221
Vol8188 said:
But your model was completely wrong, correct?
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Trump win as it happened was the 3rd most likely outcome in my outputs. Harris 308 was about 15%. Trump 297 was 13%. Trump 312 was about 12%. Harris 319 was about 10%.

Based on that, I was not surprised by the outcome in the least.
 
#65,223
#65,223
Vol8188 said:
Lmfao
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You have a strange sense of humor. I'm sorry if I gave you false hope of a Harris victory, but she was going to have a failed presidency anyway. This was the best possible outcome for the Democrats and the country. Trump has no excuses for failure and the left will have to come to Jesus, both literally and figuratively. Maybe now they run a Beshear in 2028 and return to relevance. Or, they double down on the mistakes and become less relevant as a national party.
 
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#65,225
Rifleman said:
You have a strange sense of humor. I'm sorry if I gave you false hope of a Harris victory, but she was going to have a failed presidency anyway. This was the best possible outcome for the Democrats and the country. Trump has no excuses for failure and the left will have to come to Jesus, both literally and figuratively. Maybe now they run a Beshear in 2028 and return to relevance. Or, they double down on the mistakes and become less relevant as a national party.
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Kamalala is the leading contender as of a couple days ago. 😂
 
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