2024 Presidential Race

[Rifleman]

Kamalala is the leading contender as of a couple days ago.

Newsome is the one I am seeing top the betting markets. That would be far worse than Harris in my opinion. He's got that fake politician stink and a horrible record. I don't see him doing well in any of the early primary states, but if he survives to Super Tuesday with his gobs of corporate money, then the Dems will be screwed in 2028.

Beshear, Shapiro, Whitmer, Moore, in that order, could all beat Vance. But I think Vance could easily beat all but Beshear if the administration has meaningful economic success that makes life easier for the middle class. If Vance isn't the nominee then something probably went wrong. Then the next POTUS might be a total wildcard.

 

[Vol8188]

You have a strange sense of humor. I'm sorry if I gave you false hope of a Harris victory, but she was going to have a failed presidency anyway. This was the best possible outcome for the Democrats and the country. Trump has no excuses for failure and the left will have to come to Jesus, both literally and figuratively. Maybe now they run a Beshear in 2028 and return to relevance. Or, they double down on the mistakes and become less relevant as a national party.

You have a strange sense of humor. I'm sorry if I gave you false hope of a Harris victory, but she was going to have a failed presidency anyway. This was the best possible outcome for the Democrats and the country. Trump has no excuses for failure and the left will have to come to Jesus, both literally and figuratively. Maybe now they run a Beshear in 2028 and return to relevance. Or, they double down on the mistakes and become less relevant as a national party.

It’s just hilarious hearing you defend your “model”.

The left will double down and move further left. Which will be impressive given how far left Harris was. But when you’re a progressive, the “progress” must never stop

 

[Vol8188]

I built a data model using modeled registrations and demographics of the swing states. Based on that, and I could always be wrong, but it's pretty interesting how boring this election looks. D popular vote win, blue wall holding, maybe scraping through in the Southwest because of some terrible candidates for Senate helping with Dem coattails.

* NC may take Georgia's place in blue, and I expect that to be the closest state. Otherwise, 2020 and 2024 are much alike.

This is the best part. You’re making all these bold predictions about how boring it would be, how the blue wall would hold, she may NC, and maybe some Southwest states….

and now you’re trying to claim “well…there was only a 15% that this would occur.”

Weird….because you sure were speaking very confidently about these things before they didn’t happen….

Trump win as it happened was the 3rd most likely outcome in my outputs. Harris 308 was about 15%. Trump 297 was 13%. Trump 312 was about 12%. Harris 319 was about 10%.

Based on that, I was not surprised by the outcome in the least.

 

[Orangeburst]

nm..

 

[Rifleman]

It’s just hilarious hearing you defend your “model”.

The left will double down and move further left. Which will be impressive given how far left Harris was. But when you’re a progressive, the “progress” must never stop

Sorry, I thought your interest was genuine. If you are Democrat or a Republican worried about hyper-partisanship, get out and vote and advocate for more moderate candidates in primaries. That's the best way to move the parties back to the center. Fair districting and ranked choice voting also help but are often hard to get passed because both party structures love the status quo.

 

[Rifleman]

This is the best part. You’re making all these bold predictions about how boring it would be, how the blue wall would hold, she may NC, and maybe some Southwest states….

and now you’re trying to claim “well…there was only a 15% that this would occur.”

Weird….because you sure were speaking very confidently about them before they didn’t happen….

Outputs predicted that there was 15% chance of that specific map, not a 15% chance that Harris would win. Not the same thing.

 

[Boston Vol]

Burgum isn’t Mitch Daniels, but he’s close. Vance makes zero sense, especially given his comments about Trump in 2016. He reeks of phoniness, even more than the typical politician.

I’ll admit that I was wrong about this. I’m still not a huge fan of his, but Vance turned out to be a very solid pick by Trump.!

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

 

[OrangeTsar]

Maybe Madcow, Reid, and the rest can start their own podcast. I’m sure their 100s of fans will like that.

I want some Conservative to buy MSNBC and keep Maddow on. Hire Tucker Carlson as her co host except he gets a big red button he can slam at any time to cut off her Mike. I would call it “Shut Up Rachael”. I guarantee it would become their highest rated show EVER.

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

I want some Conservative to buy MSNBC and keep Maddow on. Hire Tucker Carlson as her co host except he gets a big red button he can slam at any time to cut off her Mike. I would call it “Shut Up Rachael”. I guarantee it would become their highest rated show EVER.

 

[OrangeTsar]

“Hyper qualified”?
I could understand “qualified” (even though I wouldn’t believe it myself):
But that is some North Korea “Dear Leader” level blind worship right there.

 

[VOLS INC.]

I want some Conservative to buy MSNBC and keep Maddow on. Hire Tucker Carlson as her co host except he gets a big red button he can slam at any time to cut off her Mike. I would call it “Shut Up Rachael”. I guarantee it would become their highest rated show EVER.

 

[VOLS INC.]

“Hyper qualified”?
I could understand “qualified” (even though I wouldn’t believe it myself):
But that is some North Korea “Dear Leader” level blind worship right there.

She met the constitutional requirements. Other than that, she’s hot garbage.

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

I want to know is Elon Musk considered to be a conservative now or would he buy MSNBC out of spite just to own the libs?

 

[VOLS INC.]

I want to know is Elon Musk considered to be a conservative now or would he buy MSNBC out of spite just to own the libs?

The latter.

I think he’s probably leaning more right than he used to. But I don’t think he’s a conservative as much as he was just abandoned by the left when they decided to go full retard.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

I want some Conservative to buy MSNBC and keep Maddow on. Hire Tucker Carlson as her co host except he gets a big red button he can slam at any time to cut off her Mike. I would call it “Shut Up Rachael”. I guarantee it would become their highest rated show EVER.

 

[OrangeTsar]

I want to know is Elon Musk considered to be a conservative now or would he buy MSNBC out of spite just to own the libs?

Elon says that his views haven’t changed but that the parties’ views have shifted. Here is the cartoon he tweeted a while back to illustrate his beliefs.

 

[just bob]

Elon says that his views haven’t changed but that the parties’ views have shifted. Here is the cartoon he tweeted a while back to illustrate his beliefs.
View attachment 699651

Elon is correct. The left has gone far off the rails.

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

 

[Vol423]

This is the best part. You’re making all these bold predictions about how boring it would be, how the blue wall would hold, she may NC, and maybe some Southwest states….

and now you’re trying to claim “well…there was only a 15% that this would occur.”

Weird….because you sure were speaking very confidently about them before they didn’t happen….

In his defense, he did get the boring part right.

 

[DC_Vol]

“Hyper qualified”?
I could understand “qualified” (even though I wouldn’t believe it myself):
But that is some North Korea “Dear Leader” level blind worship right there.

This is right up there with Joy Reid’s “Harris ran a flawless campaign.”

 

[Orangeburst]

This is right up there with Joy Reid’s “Harris ran a flawless campaign.”

it was flawless..flawlessly inept.

 

[Orangeburst]

Master Class..dont you just despise these journalists

 

[BreatheUT]

* In a Trump win, he probably sweeps these states because some portion of the Harris coalition abandoned her.

That's exactly what happened. Key demos flipped to either Trump or the couch in the blue wall states. Overall, the electorate doesn't look like it's has changed at all as evidenced by the house results.

Democrats were predicted to flip it which is what is normal in these cycles given gains in 2022. They haven't made any gains and the Republicans may pickup a seat.

 

[Rifleman]

Democrats were predicted to flip it which is what is normal in these cycles given gains in 2022. They haven't made any gains and the Republicans may pickup a seat.

True. Predictions in the 75% range definitely seemed high. There aren't enough swing seats to give that level of confidence. Movement from 2020 to 2024 is going to be 7 or 8 seats, so possibly a 1.8% shift to the GOP over 4 years.

However, popular vote lead for the House GOP will be close to 3%, so Democrats' gerrymanders are doing some of the work for them. This choosing your own voters strategy needs to destroyed for both parties.

Districts should be balanced so representatives serve a cross-section of America, not liberal or conservative fringes. Winning your party primary now means you're elected in November for most of these people. That obviously results in an absolute sh*tshow.