50-50 chance of catastrophic radiation leak?

After reading the articles, the whole "equal to Chernobyl" thing seems overblown. Same on the disaster scale, but apparently Chernobyl still had much worse, more far-reaching effects than Fukushima Daiichi could have.

It's really a matter of release, and the numbers will likely end up being worse for Fukushima....though most of it is/will be into the ocean. I am still rather concerned that reactor 3 blew it's top altogether, latching massive amounts of radiation into the air (and, we have now confirmed, scattering spent fuel rods for a mile or more out fromthe plant). The wind gas consistently been blowing the radiation out over the sea to dilute and rain out. If winds were blowing the other way, I'm not sure the news articles would be as forgiving. There's a reason our navy ships high-tailed it out of there when the explosion at reactor 3 occurred, IMO. this thing has been a full-scale level 7 for weeks...they just wouldn't admit it.
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It was also much slower occurring than Chernobyl giving them time to evacuate people who might be in danger. I'd say that and the winds were the two main reasons things aren't much worse.
 
I've tried to avoid the "I told you so" thread in this post, and you know that is hard for me.

I find some sense of irony that with all this talk about "capital" the biggest accident and an unimaginably unsafe design that was Chernobyl was brought on by a communist country.
 
It was also much slower occurring than Chernobyl giving them time to evacuate people who might be in danger. I'd say that and the winds were the two main reasons things aren't much worse.

Slower, yes, but there have been people living for weeks in unevacuated regions that have higher radioactivity levels than those at which the Soviets required evacuation. I have been rather shocked that the evacuation zone stayed as small as it dud for as long as it did. I wonder how much the stresses placed on the relief infrastructure in Japan played a role in this (e.g., where would they go). It is unfathonable to me that families with children and pregnant women were not evacuated within a larger radius.
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I find some sense of irony that with all this talk about "capital" the biggest accident and an unimaginably unsafe design that was Chernobyl was brought on by a communist country.

It's not about to be the biggest for much longer.

The meme regarding the "safety" of the Fukushima design (which, as we know now, was derided for its poor safety almost from its inception at GE) was not only bogus from the start, but mooted by the spent fuel rods.

Regarding communism (sic) though, I've been an unremitting critic of a so-called socialist state putting production for the sake of production over liberty and emancipation from day one.
 
Regarding communism (sic) though, I've been an unremitting critic of a so-called socialist state putting production for the sake of production over liberty and emancipation from day one.

hysterical, given your praise for both China and Cuba.
 
hysterical, given your praise for both China and Cuba.

I can't remember praising China except for raising a few 100M out of poverty. And usually I mention it regarding how pathetic the world has been under the neoliberal regime in addressing poverty in the last 40 years (of course, that is the point).

Cuba, however, is definitely worth a second look. Cuba has truly done something different, under the most extreme circumstances. When the USSR imploded, they have continued the Revolution, and continued it against the most concerted effort of terrorism by the world hegemon 90 miles away. There has been no cult of personality, no Stalinism. While the USSR adopted neoliberalism (and has not achieved the same GDP they enjoyed under Brezhnev), Cuba continued the Revolution and made it out of the hole left by the collapse of CMEA. When we look over this era of "liberal imperialism" we find Cuba has played the decisive role - a Third World country. The advances in health and education have been hallmarks of all socialist regimes.

Cuba I definitely want to understand better, and without bourgeois reflex. Two histories have been written since the Paris Commune - the bourgeois history and the people's history.
 
I can't remember praising China except for raising a few 100M out of poverty. And usually I mention it regarding how pathetic the world has been under the neoliberal regime in addressing poverty in the last 40 years (of course, that is the point).

Cuba, however, is definitely worth a second look. Cuba has truly done something different, under the most extreme circumstances. When the USSR imploded, they have continued the Revolution, and continued it against the most concerted effort of terrorism by the world hegemon 90 miles away. There has been no cult of personality, no Stalinism. While the USSR adopted neoliberalism (and has not achieved the same GDP they enjoyed under Brezhnev), Cuba continued the Revolution and made it out of the hole left by the collapse of CMEA. When we look over this era of "liberal imperialism" we find Cuba has played the decisive role - a Third World country. The advances in health and education have been hallmarks of all socialist regimes.

Cuba I definitely want to understand better, and without bourgeois reflex. Two histories have been written since the Paris Commune - the bourgeois history and the people's history.

Raul should hire you as his new Minister of Pedantic Propaganda. He may even give you one of those faux-military suits complete with a red parrot on your shoulder that shouts "Big Pimpin'" at select intervals.

Glad to know you consider the US a terrorist state. It's taken a while, but your true nature is being revealed.
 
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GSM comrades! (closest I could find)

fidel_castro1.jpg
 
Raul should hire you as his new Minister of Pedantic Propaganda. He may even give you one of those faux-military suits complete with a red parrot on your shoulder that shouts "Big Pimpin'" at select intervals.
Glad to know you consider the US a terrorist state. It's taken a while, but your true nature is being revealed.

You have a talent for imagery at times, MG. Nice one.
 
TEPCO confirms damage to part of No. 4 unit's spent nuke fuel | Kyodo News

The firm known as TEPCO said its analysis of a 400-milliliter water sample taken Tuesday from the No. 4 unit's spent nuclear fuel pool revealed the damage to some fuel rods in such a pool for the first time, as it detected higher-than-usual levels of radioactive iodine-131, cesium-134 and cesium-137.

According to TEPCO, radioactive iodine-131 amounting to 220 becquerels per cubic centimeter, cesium-134 of 88 becquerels and cesium-137 of 93 becquerels were detected in the pool water. Those substances are generated by nuclear fission.

The government's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said the confirmed radioactive materials were up to 100,000 times higher than normal but that the higher readings may have also been caused by the pouring of rainwater containing much radioactivity or particles of radiation-emitting rubble in the pool.

The roof and the upper walls of the No. 4 reactor building have been blown away by a hydrogen explosion and damaged by fires since the disaster struck the plant. The water level in the spent fuel pool is believed to have temporarily dropped.

TEPCO said the fuel rods may have also been damaged by steel frames that fell into the pool in addition to overheating caused by the loss of cooling functions after the twin disasters.

TEPCO had pumped out 700 tons of highly polluted water by Wednesday evening from an underground tunnel-like trench to a ''condenser,'' where in normal operations steam from the reactor is converted into water.

Eventually, the operator plans to remove a total of 60,000 tons of contaminated water, found in the basements of the Nos. 1 to 3 reactor turbine buildings as well as the trenches connected to them, and to store it in nearby tanks and other areas.
 

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