6-6 or 7-5?

#1
Johnny Majors' Ghost

Johnny Majors' Ghost

Legionnaire of the Miserable
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#1
It all depends on Auburn. That's the swing game this year. Losses over Florida, Oregon, USC, UGA, and of course Bama. Rest are wins with the Tigers being the difference between 6-6 and 7-5. Thoughts?
 
#8
#8
WooleyDooley2010 said:
It all depends on Auburn. That's the swing game this year. Losses over Florida, Oregon, USC, UGA, and of course Bama. Rest are wins with the Tigers being the difference between 6-6 and 7-5. Thoughts?
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USCe will be a winnable game at home and AU will be too. 8-4 is possible. Ala, UF and OR are 33 definite losses. GA probably is too but by then who knows how well they have developed. But 7-5 at worse but a good chance at 8-4 and CBJ should win coach of the yr in the SEC if he does that. Biggest thing is going to be QB development and WR's stepping up and being playmakers. Of course the secondary but QB and WR play is going to be huge.
 
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#10
#10
The difference between 8-4 and 5-7 is really just a couple of plays, as we all saw this year.

I think we make the plays this time around: 8-4.

Anything outside that range is going to be unlikely, but 9-3 could happen. 5% chance.
 
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#12
#12
jasonvol18 said:
USCe will be a winnable game at home and AU will be too. 8-4 is possible. Ala, UF and OR are 33 definite losses. GA probably is too but by then who knows how well they have developed. But 7-5 at worse but a good chance at 8-4 and CBJ should win coach of the yr in the SEC if he does that. Biggest thing is going to be QB development and WR's stepping up and being playmakers. Of course the secondary but QB and WR play is going to be huge.
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Not saying that recruting rankings are the tell all but UT is more talented than Oregon all over the D and on the OL according to the recruiting sites. I know it is a transition to an assistant but they will have a new HC and OC this year. Barner is gone as well. They're ripe if Jones is as good of a coach as we all hope.

There are no "definite" losses but Bama would be a pretty incredible win. UT "can" beat anyone else on their schedule if things fall together right... which is largely a measure of how good your coaching staff is.

Many want to write this season off. I think it is a very critical test of Jones and his staff. He has tremendous OL talent. He has talent with experience at every position except receiver if he can get the best out of it.
 
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#13
#13
Catbone said:
Its not defeatist. Its reality of the situation.
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No. It really isn't. USCe according to the much believed recruiting sites is no more talented than UT... yet most here write that game off as a loss. I could argue some of the rest of them aren't the "sure losses" that many imagine. Besides that.... there are many miles between now and that first big challenge.

This comes down to coaching and attitude. One of the first things you have to do to win is to believe that you are going to. Jones to his great credit seems to operate that way. I hope this "6-6 or 7-5" attitude doesn't infect the team.

Things have to go well for thise team to be "very" good. But most new incoming coaches would KILL to have an OL like Jones inherits. If you can coach... you can work with that. Jones has NEVER coached more talent and by his own testimony these guys have bought in more quickly than any other group he's coached.
 
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#14
#14
Most of you are assuming you have to be the most talented team to win. You don't. You have to be the best team to win. The two aren't always one in the same. When UT finds the "right guy", he will beat more talented teams and NOT lose to less talented teams or many equally talented teams. He will get the most out of what he has. Jones either is or is not that guy... but we will almost certainly know that this fall barring a ton of injuries.
 
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#15
#15
The toss up game is Oregon, not Auburn. Auburn is vastly more talented than us, but had similar coaching problems. Oregon, on the other hand, is similarly talented than us and going through a similar transition. I expect, and I could very well be wrong, that Chip Kelly was the glue there, like Petrino was at Arkansas. Last year, Arkansas performed exactly as their talent averages would predict.

In other words, expect UT to look drastically better. Yes the offense will be less productive at first, but the defense should show a drastic improvement. Oregon, conversely, as they were severely over performing by their talent evaluations, has nowhere to go but down, even slightly.

If Jones just coaches to his talent, we go 7-4 with a toss-up at Oregon. This yields the most likely prediction as 7-5 or 8-4. Picture those two options as the peak on a bell curve, everything below or above is substantially less probable.
 
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#16
#16
Yankee_Vol said:
Auburn is worse off talent wise than we are. I think we win that game
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Auburn would've been worse off if Chizik was still there, with Guz running things I believe Cow Nation will be better than most think this year. Unfortunately, the schedule UT was dealt this year I think 6-6 will be best case scenario. Austin Peay, WKU and UK are the only guaranteed wins on our schedule. I'm worried about 8 losses this year. After the 5 games of hell this teams mental toughness is going to be a big ?. Not too mention all of these predictions are based on the fact that we do not have any major injuries. This could be one of the toughest years ever for us vol fans. In no way am I trying to be negative about Butch's first year, but I am being realistic. Here's to hoping I'm wrong. GBO!
 
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#17
#17
sjt18 said:
Most of you are assuming you have to be the most talented team to win. You don't. You have to be the best team to win. The two aren't always one in the same. When UT finds the "right guy", he will beat more talented teams and NOT lose to less talented teams or many equally talented teams. He will get the most out of what he has. Jones either is or is not that guy... but we will almost certainly know that this fall barring a ton of injuries.
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I have discussed this on several other threads with proof. Talent IS the key to 60-70% of the wins/losses.

It really is that simple.

However, the 30-40% of the games that victory is not explained by talent, can be explained by coaching.

Dooley and Kiff, are underachievers by a magnitude of 2-4 games a season.

Petrino and Butch Jones have historically had a +3 (or so) ratio of wins above their talent predictions.
 
#18
#18
The winner isn't the one with the most talent or the best team.It simply is the one that refuses to lose!:matrix:
 
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#19
#19
What were we last year W-L? With the offense depleted and the D nearly the same, we are going to have a better record?

:lolabove:
 
#22
#22
VolBraniac said:
What were we last year W-L? With the offense depleted and the D nearly the same, we are going to have a better record?

:lolabove:
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I don't think the team will quit on Butch like they did on Derrick Dumna&& like they did in 2012. I think It'll be close but Tennessee beats Missou,Vandy and UK to go 7-5.
 
#23
#23
We will not win more than 8 games this year, and are likely looking at a 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. No one wants us to lose that many games, but we just don't have the skill players to run this offense the way it needs to run. That's not defeatist at all, that's just the reality of the scheme Jones runs.
 
#24
#24
VolBraniac said:
What were we last year W-L? With the offense depleted and the D nearly the same, we are going to have a better record?

:lolabove:
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That's the thing that baffles me. Yet people keep quoting all this supposed talent that we have. We don't have a pass rushing DE, a disruptive DT, or a CB that can cover my 10yr old. Heck, at this moment we don't even have a clue who the go-to WR's are let alone the starting QB, yet somehow we're gonna outperform our record the last three years and go 8-4?

I suspect these are the folks with unrealistic expectations that will bridge jump if the WKU spread is less than 7pts. Don't misunderstand, I love the optimism but how about tempering it just a bit.

Personally I'm going with 6-6 and will be happy as a pig in mud with 7-5. That being said 5-7 wouldn't surprise me the least bit.
 
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#25
#25
Voldemonium said:
That's the thing that baffles me. Yet people keep quoting all this supposed talent that we have. We don't have a pass rushing DE, a disruptive DT, or a CB that can cover my 10yr old. Heck, at this moment we don't even have a clue who the go-to WR's are let alone the starting QB, yet somehow we're gonna outperform our record the last three years and go 8-4?

I suspect these are the folks with unrealistic expectations that will bridge jump if the WKU spread is less than 7pts. Don't misunderstand, I love the optimism but how about tempering it just a bit.

Personally I'm going with 6-6 and will be happy as a pig in mud with 7-5. That being said 5-7 wouldn't surprise me the least bit.
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+1
 
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