‘23 AL DL Hunter Osborne (Alabama commit)

[SCvol333]

Does this mean 22% of drafted players were 2 star or lower??

No. There are a lot more 3 than 4 and more 4 than 5. So a lower percentage can still be a lot of players.

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

It is interesting that we have a lot of EDGE, but only a single DL that's a 250lb 3* committed... Crazy, I'd have thought by now we'd have 1-2 true DL committed... but yeah Garner supposed to be the GOAT, so why aren't they lining up to come and play?

We're going with the old Indianapolis game plan from the Peyton days. Try to score fast, get a lead, pin the ears back with the edge rushers and Pile up the sacks.

 

[VolFreakJosh]

It is interesting that we have a lot of EDGE, but only a single DL that's a 250lb 3* committed... Crazy, I'd have thought by now we'd have 1-2 true DL committed... but yeah Garner supposed to be the GOAT, so why aren't they lining up to come and play?

Who said he was the GOAT?

His track record speaks for himself:

• Coached 33 NFL Draft picks

• 28 Bowl game Appearances as a coach

Just because he hasn’t exceeded your expectations, doesn’t mean he isn’t good anymore.

 

[VolForLife83]

Waiting for the Rodney Garner is an elite recruiter thing to kick in.

Must have lost VIP access to the Cabin?

 

[VolFanGBO]

It is interesting that we have a lot of EDGE, but only a single DL that's a 250lb 3* committed... Crazy, I'd have thought by now we'd have 1-2 true DL committed... but yeah Garner supposed to be the GOAT, so why aren't they lining up to come and play?

where’s the blue font

 

[LittleVol]

Well guess what? Obviously, different scenario because I was a mediocre music guy back in the day, not an athlete, but I wanted to go to another SEC school way out of state when I was making my college decision and they gave me a killer deal. Really wanted to go there. When my parents and I sat down and made the college decision, though, they wanted UT and their arguments about what UT offered couldn’t be beat. I went to UT and it was the best decision I’ve ever made, looking back. I’m just saying that having the parents definitely means a lot.

It's good to hear that he has two parents actively involved with this process.

With that said....they shouldn't have to talk him into coming. He'll always be one foot out the door- and with the way Rodney G coaches lol....he wouldn't last.

It really depends on how much he likes UT.
Is Clemson at 10 for him? Cool.
Is UT at least a 7?? Cool, we can work with that with the parents guidance.

But if UT is an average experience for him than he's probably leaving.

All that stuff changes when he gets on campus at meets new students.

 

[SugarCC]

It is interesting that we have a lot of EDGE, but only a single DL that's a 250lb 3* committed... Crazy, I'd have thought by now we'd have 1-2 true DL committed... but yeah Garner supposed to be the GOAT, so why aren't they lining up to come and play?

Well, let's see...

UGA, reigning national champs, has the same amount of DL committed as we do; and, he's a 3*.

Ohio St, who is ranked #1 in recruiting at the moment...they have two committed, a 4* and a 3*, and neither weighs more than 260.

What about Bama? Yeah, they have ZERO DLinemen committed.

I believe they're missing you, over on the Kentucky board.

 

[Dirty Vol]

Well, let's see...

UGA, reigning national champs, has the same amount of DL committed as we do; and, he's a 3*.

Ohio St, who is ranked #1 in recruiting at the moment...they have two committed, a 4* and a 3*, and neither weighs more than 260.

What about Bama? Yeah, they have ZERO DLinemen committed.

I believe they're missing you, over on the Kentucky board.

Oh Snap

 

[hjeagle1vol]

Well, let's see...

UGA, reigning national champs, has the same amount of DL committed as we do; and, he's a 3*.

Ohio St, who is ranked #1 in recruiting at the moment...they have two committed, a 4* and a 3*, and neither weighs more than 260.

What about Bama? Yeah, they have ZERO DLinemen committed.

I believe they're missing you, over on the Kentucky board.

 

[Devo182]

Statistics are statistics and numbers are numbers. 8% sounds dismal, but let's talk real numbers. out of the 32 first round picks in 22' there were more 3 stars than 5 stars. That would be 9 to 8. 4 stars did better, there were 12. So I have no problem celebrating 4's and 5's but until you find out if your 3 stars were in the misevaluated group or not it is silly to get too worked up. Too many late bloomers and guys that had to play behind other quality guys, especially like now, before they play their Sr season to declare defeat. That is especially true for those guys tabbed by power 5 programs. Bet those numbers are better than 8%. Even better for 3 stars from top 30 p5 teams, and those are the numbers we should be studying. Not going to match 4's and 5's as a category, but individual team success might get close to be competitive and I am only interested in one.

You're talking volume - not odds or probabilities. There are only 32 5*s vs about 370 4*s lol. And there are a couple thousand 3*s. So 32 5*s had 1 less drafted vs a couple thousand lol. It seems pretty clear which groups are the best to choose from.

So sure, if we can recruit 100 3-stars instead of a few 5-stars, then it begins to make sense. But you can't.

Probabilities and playing the odds are all that matter. Do you want an 8% chance or a 20% or a 50%? Seems pretty clear.

The Blue Chip Ratio is literally undefeated. There's no debate stars matter.

The whole "misevaluated" thing is optimistic hopefulness - but they are included in the numbers, so it does not change the analysis. I will agree high 3*s vs low 3*s there's going to be a difference. And having an 88 vs 89 is marginally different. I mean, Jalen Smith is 40 spots from being a 4*. Obviously it's all on a spectrum. Which is why we ultimately follow the class ratings, averages, and rankings.

But no matter how chop it up, stars and ratings (to make it more dynamic and less discrete) matter.

 

[sjt18]

Judging by the first round is pretty useless unless you find a way to factor their career success. Almost all 5* players will go to a notable program. They will get far more exposure than the 3* who are drafted from smaller programs.

Maybe the bigger relevance of 8 out of 32 being former 5* is that around 20-30 more former 5* were NOT first round picks.

Around 60% of 5* players will be drafted. That's not bad.... but remember they artificially limit the number of 5* they hand out. They hedge their bets to make their accuracy look better. If they were deserving of the faith some put in them then they would not set an arbitrary limit. They would attempt to give every worthy HS player a rating by the same standard year after year. One class might have 100 Five Star players while the next might have 10.

If they made that attempt then their success ratio would likely go way down.

 

[Devo182]

Does this mean 22% of drafted players were 2 star or lower??

You're reversing what we're talking about. I was saying "50% of 5 stars get drafted" not "50% of draftees are 5 stars".

That said, as to your discussion, 2*s do take up a few percent of each draft and NR (not rated) players do take up 10-16%! Why? Because there are about 490,000 of them each class lol. So if you want a .0085% chance lol.

 

[MarcoVol]

You're talking volume - not odds or probabilities. There are only 32 5*s vs about 370 4*s lol. And there are a couple thousand 3*s. So 32 5*s had 1 less drafted vs a couple thousand lol. It seems pretty clear which groups are the best to choose from.

So sure, if we can recruit 100 3-stars instead of a few 5-stars, then it begins to make sense. But you can't.

Probabilities and playing the odds are all that matter. Do you want an 8% chance or a 20% or a 50%? Seems pretty clear.

The Blue Chip Ratio is literally undefeated. There's no debate stars matter.

The whole "misevaluated" thing is optimistic hopefulness - but they are included in the numbers, so it does not change the analysis. I will agree high 3*s vs low 3*s there's going to be a difference. And having an 88 vs 89 is marginally different. I mean, Jalen Smith is 40 spots from being a 4*. Obviously it's all on a spectrum. Which is why we ultimately follow the class ratings, averages, and rankings.

But no matter how chop it up, stars and ratings (to make it more dynamic and less discrete) matter.

 

[GiggerVol]

It is interesting that we have a lot of EDGE, but only a single DL that's a 250lb 3* committed... Crazy, I'd have thought by now we'd have 1-2 true DL committed... but yeah Garner supposed to be the GOAT, so why aren't they lining up to come and play?

I think some of it has to do with RG , by most accounts, is a tough and demanding guy who demands his guys work their arses off to develop. Some kids for whatever reason can't or don't want to be pushed real hard. But his track record will get them to the league if they will buy in.

 

[Devo182]

View attachment 472220

And proudly so

 

[GUNTERSVOL]

Well, let's see...

UGA, reigning national champs, has the same amount of DL committed as we do; and, he's a 3*.

Ohio St, who is ranked #1 in recruiting at the moment...they have two committed, a 4* and a 3*, and neither weighs more than 260.

What about Bama? Yeah, they have ZERO DLinemen committed.

I believe they're missing you, over on the Kentucky board.

Word of caution. I checked the Rivals site, (not that I value it over others but is easily navigated) and checked the DT board and Bama and GA are listed with lots of the top 10 types and leading on some, along with other names you will recognize, but very little reference to UT. Not sure what to make of my fast review. But I bet there is a plan, maybe some Portal guys.... only like 1 of the top ten has committed and that is a guy from Rome to Clemson. I guess we are on the clock.

 

[DawgInterloper]

Judging by the first round is pretty useless unless you find a way to factor their career success. Almost all 5* players will go to a notable program. They will get far more exposure than the 3* who are drafted from smaller programs.

Maybe the bigger relevance of 8 out of 32 being former 5* is that around 20-30 more former 5* were NOT first round picks.

Around 60% of 5* players will be drafted. That's not bad.... but remember they artificially limit the number of 5* they hand out. They hedge their bets to make their accuracy look better. If they were deserving of the faith some put in them then they would not set an arbitrary limit. They would attempt to give every worthy HS player a rating by the same standard year after year. One class might have 100 Five Star players while the next might have 10.

If they made that attempt then their success ratio would likely go way down.

I've read (not sure if true) that the services assign 5* to players who they think will go in the 1st round of the draft. Since there are 32 NFL teams, that would mean an avg of 32 5* per high school recruiting class. Trying to compare players across different classes, and also predict which year they'll enter the draft, adds complexity, so they just simplify and aim for the top 32 recruits per year to be 5 stars.

Not sure what the rationale is for the number of 4* and 3*.

 

[SugarCC]

Word of caution. I checked the Rivals site, (not that I value it over others but is easily navigated) and checked the DT board and Bama and GA are listed with lots of the top 10 types and leading on some, along with other names you will recognize, but very little reference to UT. Not sure what to make of my fast review. But I bet there is a plan, maybe some Portal guys.... only like 1 of the top ten has committed and that is a guy from Rome to Clemson. I guess we are on the clock.

You lost me at Rivals.

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

I will come back when the talk is about Hunter on here. The current topic just gives me a headache. GBO!

 

[cobbwebb0710]

It is interesting that we have a lot of EDGE, but only a single DL that's a 250lb 3* committed... Crazy, I'd have thought by now we'd have 1-2 true DL committed... but yeah Garner supposed to be the GOAT, so why aren't they lining up to come and play?

Because in a legit weight and training program, that 250 lb “edge” becomes an athletic 300 lb’r with his hand in the dirt!

 

[RiseToTheTop]

I will come back when the talk is about Hunter on here. The current topic just gives me a headache. GBO!

same

 

[Danl]

Judging by the first round is pretty useless unless you find a way to factor their career success. Almost all 5* players will go to a notable program. They will get far more exposure than the 3* who are drafted from smaller programs.

Maybe the bigger relevance of 8 out of 32 being former 5* is that around 20-30 more former 5* were NOT first round picks.

Around 60% of 5* players will be drafted. That's not bad.... but remember they artificially limit the number of 5* they hand out. They hedge their bets to make their accuracy look better. If they were deserving of the faith some put in them then they would not set an arbitrary limit. They would attempt to give every worthy HS player a rating by the same standard year after year. One class might have 100 Five Star players while the next might have 10.

If they made that attempt then their success ratio would likely go way down.

Not directed at you in particular, but I think that the recruiting sites getting only about 60% right on 5 stars getting drafted is horrible. Remember, there are only about 32 5 stars each cycle and each and every one of those 32 players have been looked at, scrutinized, evaluated, and argued about ad infinitum, for years. They have been evaluated not only on film but first hand at camps and 7 v 7, and all star games. And STILL the recruiting sites somehow completely miss on about half of these 5 star athletes. Not just miss, in that they weren't drafted in the first round, but they weren't drafted at all.

But let's all keep acting like the recruiting sites some high measure of accuracy......

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

It is interesting that we have a lot of EDGE, but only a single DL that's a 250lb 3* committed... Crazy, I'd have thought by now we'd have 1-2 true DL committed... but yeah Garner supposed to be the GOAT, so why aren't they lining up to come and play?

It’s July. Good God. Garner is without question one of the best DL coaches in the country and there is actual data that backs that up.

 

[drvenner]

It is interesting that we have a lot of EDGE, but only a single DL that's a 250lb 3* committed... Crazy, I'd have thought by now we'd have 1-2 true DL committed... but yeah Garner supposed to be the GOAT, so why aren't they lining up to come and play?

They don't like the negativity of some of our fans.

 

[hjeagle1vol]

Because in a legit weight and training program, that 250 lb “edge” becomes an athletic 300 lb’r with his hand in the dirt!

300 lb LB with hand in dirt?