Then there is probably a problem with the way we are recruiting. If a kid can not see that you can start your NFL clock in year 3 by exposing your talent at Tennessee instead of sitting on the bench at Alabama or Georgia for 3 years we are not communicating correctly. Especially with Garner coaching the D line. The kid has the potential of losing a whole year of NFL salary.
There is no simple calculus for players decision processes.
How a family weights being able to attend games vs watching on TV matters.
Costs for family to attend games matters. (In this instance it is 1.25 vs 3.5 hour drive and that is not a big deal)
Whether a player actually had hats and flags as a kid matters. Down there in my day natives had to declare, and lots of split families existed and each side loved to poach from each other. Tree killers and tea baggers and the AU equivalents trashed those that did and earned eyerolls from the quality fans of both sides. Both sides seemed to honor loyal fans of other schools, lots of Vols in N. AL.
How they value being part of championship team vs early playing time matters. Big timers assume they will get their shot wherever they go.
How they get along with the different staffs matters.
The new added NIL offers or potential now matters. Especially if the differential offsets game attendance costs.
Some kids value being part of a turnaround, some don't.
The weight on each of these and other factors is a variable, and the sum yields a decision....
Way too complex to assess from outside the walls of their homes.
Portal now diminishes the impact of the original decision.... that too can help or hurt, i.e. a kid can take a shot on his childhood fav with easier remedies, if the depth chart does not suit him or get a shot to go back to the fav if he excels after starting elsewhere. All part of the brave new world.
Signing day is not the guarantee or the failure it used to be pre portal. Your class can walk away or be healed. The potentials are endless.