All things STOCKS

[Carp]

And IDEX gives everything back.

IDEX not moving past the 1.60 mark without news. The good news is that it has a ton of support that doesn't appear to be leaving unless another short attack happens.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Travel industry does not need bailing out. Corporate airlines, corporate lodging, corporate restaurants. If they have the balance sheets they should have they can borrow money. Many have done business by keeping no profits and borrowing funds. They should be allowed to fail.

True. These have always suffered occasional bankruptcies and it's really not a big deal. A bailout of an airline would be particularly unprecedented.

 

[GoDucks349]

No, more likely they'll spend it all at once on stupid crap they don't actually need like TVs or cell phones at national retailers. Most of that money will just go to Walmart, who doesn't need it. That, or they'll buy a new car and help the car manufactures. Local businesses won't see much of it.

Or they become day traders.....

One example: TDAmeritrade opened 608k new funded retail accounts in the first quarter and 611k new funded accounts in the second quarter. Also, they recorded an average of 3.4 million revenue trades per day in the second quarter. That's four times the previous years number and 62% more than the previous quarter. That's a lot!!

 

[Carp]

True. These have always suffered occasional bankruptcies and it's really not a big deal. A bailout of an airline would be particularly unprecedented.

The flip side is that you are putting thousands of people on unemployment from a industry that is currently struggling.

 

[mr.checkerboards]

Travel industry does not need bailing out. Corporate airlines, corporate lodging, corporate restaurants. If they have the balance sheets they should have they can borrow money. Many have done business by keeping no profits and borrowing funds. They should be allowed to fail.

If you want to give money away give a check to those that have made less than 50k+- per year. They will spend all of it locally and help the local economy, not tourist sites.

While it sucks for the mom and pop businesses. A major airline going under would hurt big time. If 20-25k is how many they're furloughinh imagine how many more that would lose their jobs if they went bankrupt. Could be 35k+. And a lot of flights have cargo on board so it slows down the transport of cargo across the country. It decreases competition which increases demand which would cause a rise in ticket prices and cause Americans not to be able to afford to fly. It would hurt major US cities because there would be less people coming spending. It would absolutely suck for the mom and pop shops, but there's more to lose with a major airline going under.

 

[mr.checkerboards]

.

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

$84 back in 2014...

View attachment 294201

Tuesday/Wednesday day would be a great time to exit SAVE. And as you said, buy back in the next day on the dip. Q3 is going to look 1,000,000 times better than Q2, there’s no question about that. Everything really comes down to November. I personally believe Trump wins again and we get 4 more years of a raging bull run. On the contrary, say he loses and the market crashes...well, we’ve all seen what kind of opportunities that can present.

These two posts are interesting when paired together. I'm looking for the four years of a "raging bull run" in the chart, and it just isn't where I expected it to be given the statement in the second post. My best return years by far were 14, 15, and 16, even though I strongly disagreed with the economic policy in DC during those years (I don't see it as much better now). My avg RoR is 113% over the last five years. This is in no way an endorsement of either party, but there will be all time highs made at some point either way. Maybe not in broader indices, but there will be winners and losers either way. I would prefer the gov to stay out and let the market work. Let the zombies die or restructure and come out leaner and more efficient. I didn't like the GM/Chrysler bailout any more or less than an airline bailout. I wouldn't like a travel stimulus plan any more or less than cash for clunkers. The gov needs to get the hell out of the way, and let the market handle this. Jmo.

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

While it sucks for the mom and pop businesses. A major airline going under would hurt big time. If 20-25k is how many they're furloughinh imagine how many more that would lose their jobs if they went bankrupt. Could be 35k+. And a lot of flights have cargo on board so it slows down the transport of cargo across the country. It decreases competition which increases demand which would cause a rise in ticket prices and cause Americans not to be able to afford to fly. It would hurt major US cities because there would be less people coming spending. It would absolutely suck for the mom and pop shops, but there's more to lose with a major airline going under.

Delta, US Airways, and Northwest were all in BK in 2004-2005. Spoiler alert......we all made it to 2006.

 

[mr.checkerboards]

Delta, US Airways, and Northwest were all in BK in 2004-2005. Spoiler alert......we all made it to 2006.

Thats a very short term outlook

 

[Go aeiou]

Tourist sites have locals, too....

But, almost no one is going to travel to Harriman or Clinton or Greenville TN. Some money would be spent at local businesses.

 

[JFreak]

My avg RoR is 113% over the last five years.

You increased your portfolio 32x in the last 5 years?

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

Thats a very short term outlook

It was 15 years ago. We made it to 2020 also. Airlines go BK a lot, and society still moves forward. A short term outlook is throwing good money after bad to keep poorly run companies from insolvency. Delta still flew planes while in chapter 11. If UAL or AAL can't pay their bills, I hope they get the same courtesy I would get if I can't pay mine. I will err on the side that gov intervention in private equity is bad far more times than it is good.

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

You increased your portfolio 32x in the last 5 years?

 

[JFreak]

Ah that makes more sense. You've averaged about 18% YoY. Not shabby but also not other-worldly. Was going to pay you a LOT of $$ to manage my portfolio.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Regarding tax credits for travel, I really don't like the government picking winners and losers. I really don't like it when the biggest donor (Adelson) for the political party in charge and the POTUS would benefit greatly from it. I'd rather the government give another round of stimulus checks and let the citizens decide how to spend.

Regarding unemployment, the blanket $600 stipend should be removed and unemployment should be capped at 60-70% of prior earnings. My 15 year averaged $200 a week reffing soccer games and now he is making over $700 a week on unemployment. I like the idea of a work bonus. I think an easy bonus would be for individuals that get off unemployment, they receive a bonus of half the unemployment benefits that they would have received for the rest of 2020. I think an additional tax credit (on top of those that already exist) can be given to businesses who hire an unemployed person.

 

[ButchPlz]

I am not sure how I feel about various stimuli, but I am not a fan of a travel stimulus at all.

And whoever said small businesses would see benefit from a stimulus round is nuts. None of the small businesses I know saw a bump in sales as a result of that check. Maybe local gas stations did, or franchises, but it sure wasn't the average mom and pop, at least anecdotally.

 

[VolAllen]

I am not sure how I feel about various stimuli, but I am not a fan of a travel stimulus at all.

And whoever said small businesses would see benefit from a stimulus round is nuts. None of the small businesses I know saw a bump in sales as a result of that check. Maybe local gas stations did, or franchises, but it sure wasn't the average mom and pop, at least anecdotally.

Ehhhh I dunno about this. I own a small business and while we weren’t AS busy as we should be this time of year, people were definitely spending their stimulus checks on home improvements such as painting, door hardware, landscaping, outdoor furniture and patios, pools, etc..

Also a ton of boat and ATV sales, which are all locally owned.

 

[VolAllen]

I am not sure how I feel about various stimuli, but I am not a fan of a travel stimulus at all.

And whoever said small businesses would see benefit from a stimulus round is nuts. None of the small businesses I know saw a bump in sales as a result of that check. Maybe local gas stations did, or franchises, but it sure wasn't the average mom and pop, at least anecdotally.

Regarding tax credits for travel, I really don't like the government picking winners and losers. I really don't like it when the biggest donor (Adelson) for the political party in charge and the POTUS would benefit greatly from it. I'd rather the government give another round of stimulus checks and let the citizens decide how to spend.

Regarding unemployment, the blanket $600 stipend should be removed and unemployment should be capped at 60-70% of prior earnings. My 15 year averaged $200 a week reffing soccer games and now he is making over $700 a week on unemployment. I like the idea of a work bonus. I think an easy bonus would be for individuals that get off unemployment, they receive a bonus of half the unemployment benefits that they would have received for the rest of 2020. I think an additional tax credit (on top of those that already exist) can be given to businesses who hire an unemployed person.

I think there will be both a check, and a travel credit. I believe the travel credit is a priority because they knew that would be one of the hardest hit industries. Don’t think of it like it’s just airlines. It’s hotel chains, rental cars, gas stations, restaurants, I mean almost everything. Jet ski rentals, water parks, the house/condo cleaning services, the skilled trade guys such as plumbers, electricians, painters, etc that service the vacation properties, the random beach chair services, life guards, I mean literally almost everything in a tourist town would be negatively effected. But what changed in say, Clinton, TN? Everything there is still open and everyone is still working...

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I am not sure how I feel about various stimuli, but I am not a fan of a travel stimulus at all.

And whoever said small businesses would see benefit from a stimulus round is nuts. None of the small businesses I know saw a bump in sales as a result of that check. Maybe local gas stations did, or franchises, but it sure wasn't the average mom and pop, at least anecdotally.

There was a ton of money in the marketplace from stimulus/unemployment. The company the wife works for does COVID 19 business incentives and the companies that werent as impacted by stay at home orders did well. Got a buddy that owns a small hardware store and the last 3 months were their best months from sales perspective ever.

I know restaurants were hugely impacted but I will bet some of your sales were people splurging because they had a stimulus check.

If you didnt take a PPP loan, take a look at the Employee Retention Credit if you all had employees other than you and wife

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

Ah that makes more sense. You've averaged about 18% YoY. Not shabby but also not other-worldly. Was going to pay you a LOT of $$ to manage my portfolio.

That's annualized. I didn't capture the whole formula in the screenshot. I opened the account in 2012 with $10k. I haven't made any further contributions to this account, and it outran my indexed 401k a few years ago. This account sits at $760k this morning. It's been a lot of fun.

 

[ButchPlz]

There was a ton of money in the marketplace from stimulus/unemployment. The company the wife works for does COVID 19 business incentives and the companies that werent as impacted by stay at home orders did well. Got a buddy that owns a small hardware store and the last 3 months were their best months from sales perspective ever.

I know restaurants were hugely impacted but I will bet some of your sales were people splurging because they had a stimulus check.

Your bet would be wrong, and note which industry both of you and @VolAllen highlighting- hardware stores. There are two legitimately locally-owned hardware shops left in this town.

Not all cities and towns are made the same. We got all the full blown panic and screeching to a halt with none of the case load. Wages here were already depressed and people were and still are having a hard time with money.

Anecdotally, the people in the city I'm in largely ended up using their checks for basic necessities like groceries and bills. Econ dev here had a survey out asking how it was used, too, and from what I heard from the guy I know in the office the answers they got reflected the same. We are a restaurant and healthcare-driven economy here, and both those industries saw massive cuts at that time.

I haven't met a single small biz owner of the very many I know here that will attribute sales to that stimulus, as sales are just bad and have been bad. Unless you're calling me stupid or ignorant of my own operations and area I think I may know a little better of what's going on here.

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

I really don't like the government picking winners and losers.

If I have another child, I may name him/her this quote. I've got to figure out the hyphens.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Your bet would be wrong, and note which industry both of you and @VolAllen highlighting- hardware stores. There are two legitimately locally-owned hardware shops left in this town.

Not all cities and towns are made the same. We got all the full blown panic and screeching to a halt with none of the case load. Wages here were already depressed and people were and still are having a hard time with money.

Anecdotally, the people in the city I'm in largely ended up using their checks for basic necessities like groceries and bills. Econ dev here had a survey out asking how it was used, too, and from what I heard from the guy I know in the office the answers they got reflected the same. We are a restaurant and healthcare-driven economy here, and both those industries saw massive cuts at that time.

I haven't met a single small biz owner of the very many I know here that will attribute sales to that stimulus, as sales are just bad and have been bad. Unless you're calling me stupid or ignorant of my own operations and area I think I may know a little better of what's going on here.

I'm not calling you stupid at all.

You are making a blanket nationwide statement when your reference point is a state with some of the most oppressive stay at home orders in an industry that was devastated. My reference point is nationwide with all types and sizes of companies with varying impacts. The answer as to whether a stimulus helps small business is "It Depends"

And by the way, a person who buys items online because they have a little extra cash (from a stimulus) would cause you to lose bet. In the next couple of weeks, I'm likely going to Myrtle Beach and will likely eat at some local restaurants. I'm able to go because I have funds, partially as a result of stimulus.

 

[VolAllen]

I'm not calling you stupid at all.

You are making a blanket nationwide statement when your reference point is a state with some of the most oppressive stay at home orders in an industry that was devastated. My reference point is nationwide with all types and sizes of companies with varying impacts. The answer as to whether a stimulus helps small business is "It Depends"

And by the way, a person who buys items online because they have a little extra cash (from a stimulus) would cause you to lose bet. In the next couple of weeks, I'm likely going to Myrtle Beach and will likely eat at some local restaurants. I'm able to go because I have funds, partially as a result of stimulus.

It’s a good time to come. Everything is open but it isn’t nearly as busy as usual. I think we’ve talked about this before, but where are you staying. I’d avoid ocean blvd, if possible. List your options and I’ll advise.

 

[ButchPlz]

I'm not calling you stupid at all.

You are making a blanket nationwide statement when your reference point is a state with some of the most oppressive stay at home orders in an industry that was devastated. My reference point is nationwide with all types and sizes of companies with varying impacts. The answer as to whether a stimulus helps small business is "It Depends"

And by the way, a person who buys items online because they have a little extra cash (from a stimulus) would cause you to lose bet. In the next couple of weeks, I'm likely going to Myrtle Beach and will likely eat at some local restaurants. I'm able to go because I have funds, partially as a result of stimulus.

In the end I am simply incredibly suspicious of any claim that stimulus checks are really having a big impact on most small businesses. I don't think the benefits are as much as many people want to claim.