All things STOCKS

#7,127
#7,127
Tri-CitiesVol said:
GIK as it settles closer to $10 would be a nice swing. Compare the chart to PIC and I think it will replicate. Up to $15 after the company was announced and the will consolidate around $10 until it heats up when a merger date is announced.

IVR is quite similar to MFA, which you love to play. It’s at 3.30 and announcing it’s dividend within a week I think. I bought 1,000 shares and will hold them until retirement if that divvy gets back to .50 next year. I think it matches MFA at .075 for this payment. MFA hit $4 by the way.

MACK is another callout by Twitter guy I’m keeping an eye on. Huge institutional and insider buying the past few months. If they have a cancer drug that causes a day even half like the day GLSI did, it’s worth putting all the monies in.
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I don’t really get the Mack call and actually went the opposite direction by loading Puts after it ran so high. What is the deal here? This smells like a pump and dump to me but I could be wrong
 
#7,128
#7,128
VolAllen said:
I don’t really get the Mack call and actually went the opposite direction by loading Puts after it ran so high. What is the deal here? This smells like a pump and dump to me but I could be wrong
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Payout vs their market cap combined with the really heavy institutional buying recently.
 
#7,129
#7,129
Go aeiou said:
Ha, I was on the other end in a very personal way. I was an organizer of a community bank in the 90s. We were conservative, and made plenty of loans without being too heavy in any one area.
Around 06 we wanted more residential home mortgages, and we hired a lender from Countrywide that was making all kinds of loans. Based on her pay structure we thought she might make more than our president. She brought tons of applications, but from people that had poor credit and/or no proof of income. We rejected more than 50% of her loans. She said that's what they did at Countrywide. We parted ways.
When the **** hit the fan we did not have a single subprime mortgage. The regulators were surprised.
Not all good. There were plenty of bad loans, and it took several years for the bank to recover.
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Sounds like you guys did it right. Alt "A's and/or Liar loans were a real problem.

Two of our biggest holdings in 2008 were New Century and Countrywide. That was a big mistake. We'd had many heated investment meetings about getting out of sub-prime lenders in 2006-7. But the senior partner had "fallen in love" with them. We took a big hit on sub primes.

The best thing we did during the 2008 crash was we bought a bunch of women's apparel retailers for dirt cheap. We made between 400-600% on all of them over about a 9 month period. And our NET annualized return still was over 12% on a 20 year basis. Not bad for a small firm.
 
#7,130
#7,130
I looked at Mack today. Basically they are waiting on this progress payment from a company that bought and is testing some drug (pancreatic cancer). Will the progress payment be made? I don't know. I guess nobody else knows either, and that's why it's $7. I also don't know what the company is going to do after they actually get paid. They will have 4 or 5 times more money than their market cap, that is true. But what do you do then? It sorta sounds like the stock is worth $zero at such time that you are informed that the progress payment will never be made because the trial didn't go well.
 
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#7,131
#7,131
Firebirdparts said:
I looked at Mack today. Basically they are waiting on this progress payment from a company that bought and is testing some drug (pancreatic cancer). Will the progress payment be made? I don't know. I guess nobody else knows either, and that's why it's $7. I also don't know what the company is going to do after they actually get paid. They will have 4 or 5 times more money than their market cap, that is true. But what do you do then? It sorta sounds like the stock is worth $zero at such time that you are informed that the progress payment will never be made because the trial didn't go well.
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Why would institutional money be so heavily invested if the stock was going to be worthless?
 
#7,135
#7,135
Tri-CitiesVol said:
Why would institutional money be so heavily invested if the stock was going to be worthless?
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Answer unclear, ask again later.

Just kidding. There’s a chance it’ll be zero. There’s a chance it’ll be $35. Oddly, there’s no option in between and it trades for 7. You don’t even need to be good at statistics to calculate the where institutional investors put the odds.

There’s no big money in it anyway. It’s a micro cap.
 
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#7,136
#7,136
I think that Stericycle (SRCL) can be traded in the near term. All of the vaccinations will be creating mountains of hazardous medical waste and they’re the leader in that niche. Cramer and the financial media will probably be pumping it in the coming weeks. I would assume that they were smart enough to include volume thresholds in their agreements or even get paid by the pound. I think that Waste Management (WM) also has a sizable footprint in the space.

Republic Services (RSG) should also be weathering the economic pullback fairly well and should participate in any recovery. They really aren’t a player in hazmat though.
 
#7,137
#7,137
Go aeiou said:
Ha, I was on the other end in a very personal way. I was an organizer of a community bank in the 90s. We were conservative, and made plenty of loans without being too heavy in any one area.
Around 06 we wanted more residential home mortgages, and we hired a lender from Countrywide that was making all kinds of loans. Based on her pay structure we thought she might make more than our president. She brought tons of applications, but from people that had poor credit and/or no proof of income. We rejected more than 50% of her loans. She said that's what they did at Countrywide. We parted ways.
When the **** hit the fan we did not have a single subprime mortgage. The regulators were surprised.
Not all good. There were plenty of bad loans, and it took several years for the bank to recover.
Click to expand...
I worked at a company doing compliance review of Countrywide funded loans in late 2004. Even then we were like holy **** how is this possible. People with jobs making $50k were buying and selling $600k houses regularly with nothing down and interest only loans. People taking equity out of their houses to buy a new car or boat. I bet 99% of what we reviewed originated in CA. How people thought the music wasn’t going to stop is beyond me.
 
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#7,142
#7,142
VolAllen said:
And I am loaded with Puts.....📉

View attachment 332396
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But there’s also this:

President Trump Could Lift Uk Travel Ban As Early As Next Week

12/18/20, 3:13 PM
December 18, 2020 03:13 PM ET (BZ Newswire) -- News

-Reuters
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I’ve had my eye on the JETS ETF. Looking for a pull back to buy and hold through the end of the COVID pandemic.
 
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#7,148
#7,148
DancingOutlaw said:
I worked at a company doing compliance review of Countrywide funded loans in late 2004. Even then we were like holy **** how is this possible. People with jobs making $50k were buying and selling $600k houses regularly with nothing down and interest only loans. People taking equity out of their houses to buy a new car or boat. I bet 99% of what we reviewed originated in CA. How people thought the music wasn’t going to stop is beyond me.
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Yep, it goes back to when the tax law was changed in the 80s. You could itemize all interest expense, and then suddenly that was changed to business interest and interest paid on your home. So most individuals got a heloc or similar.
We would make home equity loans, and get an appraisal of the home. Home prices were going up, and appraisers always seemed to appraise a home for a little more than required to make the loan.
As you mention, new cars and boats, but also vacations, clothes, etc.
Whatever happened to the day when getting your home paid for was a goal?
 
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#7,149
#7,149
Was hoping the stimulus plan would have the markets up today, but looks like travel restrictions are holding this back. Anybody planning on selling some?

My plan was to sell after the stimulus bill went through. I don’t see any more positive virus news coming for the next month or so.
 
#7,150
#7,150
ndubvols said:
Was hoping the stimulus plan would have the markets up today, but looks like travel restrictions are holding this back. Anybody planning on selling some?

My plan was to sell after the stimulus bill went through. I don’t see any more positive virus news coming for the next month or so.
Click to expand...

Johnson and Johnson’s vaccine is about 2 months out. When it’s available the supply of vaccines will soar and they would soon after be available for everybody. The markets will move dramatically as the late February target date for JNJ approaches. This might be the last big pullback related to COVID unless there is a major setback. Full hospitals, a holiday surge, failed well known companies, virus mutations, and such can put pressure on markets, but the lows could be in the process of being formed right now. Another big date between now and then is the inauguration. The BIGGEST event will be the Georgia Senate races. I would think that the lows would be lower with the Ds controlling the House, Senate, and the Executive Branch. Also every time Joe stumbles and Kamala moves a step closer to using the 25th Amendment to move into the Oval Office the more chaotic the markets become.
 
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