All things STOCKS

#9,626
#9,626
Carp said:
Made a cool 5% on $ACET on an overnight swing.

Not crazy about the state of the market with COVID cases picking up again and potentially mask mandates coming back. I've gone roughly 50% cash at the moment with my other large play being SPPI, which represents about 30% of my portfolio.

Probably going to try and play safe with day trades/over night swings for 1-5% gains. Looking for small cap stocks at that are at support levels for a quick bounce.
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I understand covid concern, but how does a masks mandate effect stock prices?
I can see concern over needing vaccination to dine out. Yes and no. In a community where most people are vaccinated it might actually help. In TN it would probably hurt the restaurant business since most people aren't vaccinated.
 
#9,627
#9,627
Go aeiou said:
I understand covid concern, but how does a masks mandate effect stock prices?
I can see concern over needing vaccination to dine out. Yes and no. In a community where most people are vaccinated it might actually help. In TN it would probably hurt the restaurant business since most people aren't vaccinated.
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Just seems like public sentiment would decline with new mask mandates. Could certainly affect people going out as much if they are required to wear a mask. I think most people view it as a step backwards in the fight against COVID.

It may not have any affect whatsoever, but given inflation rates and the market consistently making ATHs, it seems like a lot of people are expecting a big pull back soon. I'm not going to pull everything out, but I'm going to play quote a bit more safe than I have been.
 
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#9,628
#9,628
Carp said:
Just seems like public sentiment would decline with new mask mandates. Could certainly affect people going out as much if they are required to wear a mask. I think most people view it as a step backwards in the fight against COVID.

It may not have any affect whatsoever, but given inflation rates and the market consistently making ATHs, it seems like a lot of people are expecting a big pull back soon. I'm not going to pull everything out, but I'm going to play quote a bit more safe than I have been.
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Yep, I feel like the market is too high, but people keep sending it up more and more. I have sold most stocks other than blue chips. OTOH, most of my assets are in mutual funds. Most index funds, so they will do whatever the market does.
If bonds ever come back the market will drop
I'm concerned about the value of the US $. You keep dumping $ into the system sooner or later.......
 
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#9,629
#9,629
Go aeiou said:
Yep, I feel like the market is too high, but people keep sending it up more and more. I have sold most stocks other than blue chips. OTOH, most of my assets are in mutual funds. Most index funds, so they will do whatever the market does.
If bonds ever come back the market will drop
I'm concerned about the value of the US $. You keep dumping $ into the system sooner or later.......
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Bonds won’t be rising from these levels. Interest rates will rise, but then longer term bonds will fall in value. Near term bond funds could become more viable, pay better yields, and attract more of the sideline money… but that’s where a lot of the “cash” is already parked.

I’d be interested in shopping for collectibles, but 20-25% to the auction company, lack of liquidity, and no compounding returns turns me off pretty quickly.

I might jump back into DKNG before football season gets rolling, but it is getting late. 4 weeks from tomorrow for TN. Pre-season NFL is about to start. NCAA basketball is still about 3 months out.
 
#9,630
#9,630
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Bonds won’t be rising from these levels. Interest rates will rise, but then longer term bonds will fall in value. Near term bond funds could become more viable, pay better yields, and attract more of the sideline money… but that’s where a lot of the “cash” is already parked.

I’d be interested in shopping for collectibles, but 20-25% to the auction company, lack of liquidity, and no compounding returns turns me off pretty quickly.

I might jump back into DKNG before football season gets rolling, but it is getting late. 4 weeks from tomorrow for TN. Pre-season NFL is about to start. NCAA basketball is still about 3 months out.
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You think 10 year T will be around 1.17% or less in 2 years? If we get inflation the Fed might actually raise rates. My fear is that a lot of cash is parked in the stock market to get dividends since bonds pay so little now.
Bigger fear might be devaluation of the US $. Or maybe that no longer matters. Economic theory out the window.

What kind of collectibles?
 
#9,631
#9,631
I think that POTX might be at a good price for a new economy buy and hold right now. Lyft and Uber aren’t too expensive either.

There is supposed to be an anti-Cathie Wood ETF in the works. I don’t know if it’s a good idea, but it will be an entertaining follow. I think that much of her success is from self fulfilling meme type of stock selections. I’d like to see her returns without TSLA and a couple of the other big caps that she uses as her core holdings.
 
#9,632
#9,632
Go aeiou said:
You think 10 year T will be around 1.17% or less in 2 years? If we get inflation the Fed might actually raise rates. My fear is that a lot of cash is parked in the stock market to get dividends since bonds pay so little now.
Bigger fear might be devaluation of the US $. Or maybe that no longer matters. Economic theory out the window.

What kind of collectibles?
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I’m new to debt investing and the Fed watching stuff. It still doesn’t create a lot of interest for me, although I’m trying to learn. I’ll probably get more involved if interest rates return to normalcy in a few years.

US$ devaluation? That might not be a bad thing. Very few foreign based investments look that appealing to me right now. The US actually has a younger workforce than most of the world. Europe and China will be experiencing aged population issues a decade or two sooner. Devaluation should make domestic manufacturing much more viable. Coupled with a trillion dollar infrastructure rebuild, maybe we can restart selling non-tech products to the world. LatinX labor could be beneficial.

Dr Loomis over in the Football Forum is bidding on Peyton’s 1st Colts game jersey and he said he’ll go well into 6 figures to own it. It’s at $47k (plus 20%) with a couple of weeks to go. It prompted me to register an account at Heritage Auctions to look around. NFL rings and coins are more interesting to me. I’d probably ruin fabric or comic books by not storing them properly. Vintage electric guitars pique my interest as well, but maintaining correct temps and humidity would concern me. I’d maybe own sports cards since they’re sealed up in plastic cases.
 
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#9,634
#9,634
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’m new to debt investing and the Fed watching stuff. It still doesn’t create a lot of interest for me, although I’m trying to learn. I’ll probably get more involved if interest rates return to normalcy in a few years.

US$ devaluation? That might not be a bad thing. Very few foreign based investments look that appealing to me right now. The US actually has a younger workforce than most of the world. Europe and China will be experiencing aged population issues a decade or two sooner. Devaluation should make domestic manufacturing much more viable. Coupled with a trillion dollar infrastructure rebuild, maybe we can restart selling non-tech products to the world. LatinX labor could be beneficial.

Dr Loomis over in the Football Forum is bidding on Peyton’s 1st Colts game jersey and he said he’ll go well into 6 figures to own it. It’s at $47k (plus 20%) with a couple of weeks to go. It prompted me to register an account at Heritage Auctions to look around. NFL rings and coins are more interesting to me. I’d probably ruin fabric or comic books by not storing them properly. Vintage electric guitars pique my interest as well, but maintaining correct temps and humidity would concern me. I’d maybe own sports cards since they’re sealed up in plastic cases.
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The Treasury market and the broader fixed income market is the most interesting "boring" thing on Earth. It's the dog that the stock market flea rides on.
 
#9,635
#9,635
05_never_again said:
The Treasury market and the broader fixed income market is the most interesting "boring" thing on Earth. It's the dog that the stock market flea rides on.
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24/7 trading. Largest of all security markets. Highly margin-able. Lots of highly skilled professional traders around the globe ready to take my money. I’m pretty sure I’ll be limiting my own activities to domestic bond funds. I’d be interested in being long the US$ versus various world currencies, but currency trading isn’t something that I’ll be attempting to learn. Maybe I’d participate in a managed account, but I’m not going to be making currency trading decisions.
 
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#9,636
#9,636
Thunder Good-Oil said:
24/7 trading. Largest of all security markets. Highly margin-able. Lots of highly skilled professional traders around the globe ready to take my money. I’m pretty sure I’ll be limiting my own activities to domestic bond funds. I’d be interested in being long the US$ versus various world currencies, but currency trading isn’t something that I’ll be attempting to learn. Maybe I’d participate in a managed account, but I’m not going to be making currency trading decisions.
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It's certainly a different world, that's for sure. It's like swimming in the middle of the Pacific Ocean versus swimming in a little slough off the Tennessee River close to your house.

I don't trade at all anymore, and I never traded fixed income or currencies, but just watch them all the time.
 
#9,637
#9,637
05_never_again said:
It's certainly a different world, that's for sure. It's like swimming in the middle of the Pacific Ocean versus swimming in a little slough off the Tennessee River close to your house.

I don't trade at all anymore, and I never traded fixed income or currencies, but just watch them all the time.
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The leverage makes FOREX interesting. But other than country specific or international funds, I’m steering clear of things not US equities. Futures and options aren’t really in my wheelhouse either. I don’t have the mindset to quickly cut my losses. Although I will be venturing into writing some covered calls.
 
#9,638
#9,638
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’ll probably get more involved if interest rates return to normalcy in a few years.
.
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At these crazy low interest rates the Feds are still spending about 9% of all their revenues to service the national debt. For rates to “normalize “ they’d raise about 4X. At the insane rate of deficit spending right now it wouldn’t be a reach that 40% of all revenues would be needed to service debt if rates normalize. I don’t view that as sustainable which is why the Federal Reserve will do everything within their power to artificially depress interest rates going forward. I think this is the new “normalized” interest rates. JMO, TIFWIW, AARP
 
#9,643
#9,643
mrorange211 said:
I'm having a hard time investing rn because I don't trust this market AT ALL
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If you already have exposure, sitting on some cash is a valid strategy. If you are not invested at all, this is where averaging in over a year or two is the smart move. Nobody picks every bottom to buy or every top to sell. Market timers almost always miss.
 
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#9,644
#9,644
I’m transitioning from a lifetime of saving for retirement to needing to start using some of those savings to support myself unless I decide to work some more. I’m finding it to be much harder than I expected. My mind is conditioned to be fairly linear from a lifetime of working. Paychecks come regularly and a certain percentage was set aside. Because of my concern of the market being too high I’ve not been putting extra dollars in and ended up with 3-4 years of spending in cash.

I will say if you can meet your financial goals without risking all your savings in the market it does allow you to sleep easy knowing you’ve got several years for the market to bounce back before you have to sell anything. I sure miss traditional interest rates
 
#9,645
#9,645
walkenvol said:
I’m transitioning from a lifetime of saving for retirement to needing to start using some of those savings to support myself unless I decide to work some more. I’m finding it to be much harder than I expected. My mind is conditioned to be fairly linear from a lifetime of working. Paychecks come regularly and a certain percentage was set aside. Because of my concern of the market being too high I’ve not been putting extra dollars in and ended up with 3-4 years of spending in cash.

I will say if you can meet your financial goals without risking all your savings in the market it does allow you to sleep easy knowing you’ve got several years for the market to bounce back before you have to sell anything. I sure miss traditional interest rates
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For the extremely risk averse that have trouble sleeping, buying a fixed/lifetime annuity might be appropriate. Personally, I hate them. High administrative fees and the gains are taxed as ordinary income when going with a variable annuity. No stepped up basis either, although the unrealized gains can be distributed over a beneficiary’s life expectancy. Congress could also go off the rails and whittle away the lower long term gain rates (but surely they aren’t that stupid).

Averaging in to VTI and maybe the QQQs and DIA would be conservative investing for me.
 
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#9,647
#9,647
walkenvol said:
I’m transitioning from a lifetime of saving for retirement to needing to start using some of those savings to support myself unless I decide to work some more. I’m finding it to be much harder than I expected. My mind is conditioned to be fairly linear from a lifetime of working. Paychecks come regularly and a certain percentage was set aside. Because of my concern of the market being too high I’ve not been putting extra dollars in and ended up with 3-4 years of spending in cash.

I will say if you can meet your financial goals without risking all your savings in the market it does allow you to sleep easy knowing you’ve got several years for the market to bounce back before you have to sell anything. I sure miss traditional interest rates
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If you are on SS and Medicare annual expenses are fairly easy to calculate. Wife and I probably have 6-8 years of cash available. I'm not willing to put any more in stocks or a bond market that is more likely to lose money than not. So our near cash earns very little.
 
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#9,648
#9,648
Go aeiou said:
If you are on SS and Medicare annual expenses are fairly easy to calculate. Wife and I probably have 6-8 years of cash available. I'm not willing to put any more in stocks or a bond market that is more likely to lose money than not. So our near cash earns very little.
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Check out PGX as that’s where I park much of my cash holdings
 
#9,650
#9,650
BigOrangeMojo said:
A throwback to 2020...
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I’ve had a buy limit of just below $51 for months now. It’s been coming back from the high 60s and just isn’t quite getting below my targeted price. I flipped it sometime in the last year for a quick, little profit.

I have another buy limit order set for Cisco that is still well away from hitting. Just need to include Intel and Microsoft and it would be 90s/00s tech horsemen all over again.
 
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