All things STOCKS

[Go aeiou]

I heard this company Apple is gonna be big soon

Not with a name like Apple. Couldn't be less creative.

 

[VolAllen]

Anyone here give SLS a second look? Up 18% in the after hours, tomorrow should be good, too.

 

[knucklehead_vol]

Anyone here give SLS a second look? Up 18% in the after hours, tomorrow should be good, too.

Not sure. I trade Nasdaq, S&P, Oil, and Gold futures.

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

We may see the S&P breakout to mid 3100s on a technical standpoint. The RSI hasn't been in overbought territory since early July, and the 50 day macd crossed upward over the 200 day a couple of weeks ago. The last couple of 50/200 bullish crosses ran about 4 weeks before they crossed bearish. If the RSI runs up towards 70, and the 50 day stays above the 200 for a couple of more weeks, we may see 3200.

The RSI is flirting with 70. It appears to be nearing a bearish cross on macd, and the RSI will need to cool off. I'd expect a pullback around these levels.

 

[bignewt]

Netflix up, disney down. Hate to see it.

 

[Big Gucci Sosa]

Pacb up 50 cents today. Told ya so

 

[VolAllen]

Rode the ACB train from 2.60 to 3 today for some quick gains. Now in PRTY with 2,000 shares at an average of 1.61. PRTY could be the play of the year.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I was lucky to get out of PRTY (Party City) a few years ago with a modest LT gain. I thought that it was a good story since they also manufactured much of their inventory. I guess they were either Walmarted or their franchise business model was flawed. I got tired of waiting for it to cross into the 20s and 30s. I'd check the debt ratios and bottom line before diving back into it. It must be down something like 90%.

I've always wondered if their temporary Halloween stores competed with Party City franchisees or if they only went up near company owned PCs.

 

[VolAllen]

I was lucky to get out of PRTY (Party City) a few years ago with a modest LT gain. I thought that it was a good story since they also manufactured much of their inventory. I guess they were either Walmarted or their franchise business model was flawed. I got tired of waiting for it to cross into the 20s and 30s. I'd check the debt ratios and bottom line before diving back into it. It must be down something like 90%.

I've always wondered if their temporary Halloween stores competed with Party City franchisees or if they only went up near company owned PCs.

From a “curb appeal” standpoint, they may seem dated and one dimensional. But you’re correct, when you peel the layers back and realize they actually manufacture all the products and sell via Amazon, Home Depot, Bed Bath, etc...they’ve got a great business. Their SP tanked like 3 weeks ago due to missing Q3 EPS. The company is blaming it partially on the temporary helium shortage and just a down Halloween.

Q4 is typically their best, and when this gets corrected it’s going to be a huge play. $1.50 to $4-7 is a big move, and I believe we’ll see that with PRTY.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

From a “curb appeal” standpoint, they may seem dated and one dimensional. But you’re correct, when you peel the layers back and realize they actually manufacture all the products and sell via Amazon, Home Depot, Bed Bath, etc...they’ve got a great business. Their SP tanked like 3 weeks ago due to missing Q3 EPS. The company is blaming it partially on the temporary helium shortage and just a down Halloween.

Q4 is typically their best, and when this gets corrected it’s going to be a huge play. $1.50 to $4-7 is a big move, and I believe we’ll see that with PRTY.

I get real nervous when SPs get close to the delisting levels. The reverse split levels. The not allowed to buy on margin levels. I wish that I was that cautious 20 years ago.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I wonder if they manufacture a lot in China. If not you'd think that the recent environment would be favorable to PRTY.

 

[volsarelife1]

Been having a good run in the OTC land lately.

Ran with SNPW from .0007 to .0062 for over $14,000 profit.

IGPK at .0012 my next runner.

 

[VolAllen]

I wonder if they manufacture a lot in China. If not you'd think that the recent environment would be favorable to PRTY.

I believe they do

 

[GoDucks349]

Out of curiosity, who here day trades?

LOL, I uses to be on the institutional buy side. our traders loved the "day traders". Been retired since 2011from one of the top Small cap value firms, so I'm a bit rusty on some things. just looking around a bit to see what people are talking about.

 

[GoVolsDR]

LOL, I uses to be on the institutional buy side. our traders loved the "day traders". Been retired since 2011from one of the top Small cap value firms, so I'm a bit rusty on some things. just looking around a bit to see what people are talking about.

Very cool, which funds were you placing orders for? Historically, how much of an emphasis are you placing on technical analysis over the macro?

Also, just curious in your general opinion about the broader growth of the market. When you were doing this for a living, how much would you hedge against the broader market when you're making ATHs right now? Would you be placing a percentage of your assets in puts, or looking to the technical analysis (fibonacci retracements/harmonic patterns) to look for a short position?

 

[GoDucks349]

Very cool, which funds were you placing orders for? Historically, how much of an emphasis are you placing on technical analysis over the macro?

Also, just curious in your general opinion about the broader growth of the market. When you were doing this for a living, how much would you hedge against the broader market when you're making ATHs right now? Would you be placing a percentage of your assets in puts, or looking to the technical analysis (fibonacci retracements/harmonic patterns) to look for a short position?

We ran our own portfolios. Basically you hire us, give us your assets and we do all the stock research in house, buy and or sell the stocks, do the risk analysis, reporting, etc. Philosophically, we were similar to a Warren Buffett mindset.

Our opinion was that technical analysis was/is a losers game. We were value contrarians, we did not technically hedge against anything, the closest we came to any sort of hedge was that we might buy the underlying bonds of a company we held in the portfolio. Basically, getting paid by the bonds while we waited for the rest of the market to "discover" the company we owned. We were long term only investors.

I will tell you that after the 2008 crash, one thing we did was buy about 8 different women's retailers when no one would touch them. We were buyers when everyone was getting out of the market. We made between 400 & 600% on all 8 companies within about 6-8 months. Very nice......

PS: The University of Tennessee was a client.... We did well for them

 

[GoDucks349]

Very cool, which funds were you placing orders for? Historically, how much of an emphasis are you placing on technical analysis over the macro?

Also, just curious in your general opinion about the broader growth of the market. When you were doing this for a living, how much would you hedge against the broader market when you're making ATHs right now? Would you be placing a percentage of your assets in puts, or looking to the technical analysis (fibonacci retracements/harmonic patterns) to look for a short position?

Closest we came to doing anything with "mutual funds" was that we sub-advised on two or three mutual funds for some of the large mutual fund houses

 

[GoVolsDR]

We ran our own portfolios. Basically you hire us, give us your assets and we do all the stock research in house, buy and or sell the stocks, do the risk analysis, reporting, etc. Philosophically, we were similar to a Warren Buffett mindset.

Our opinion was that technical analysis was/is a losers game. We were value contrarians, we did not technically hedge against anything, the closest we came to any sort of hedge was that we might buy the underlying bonds of a company we held in the portfolio. Basically, getting paid by the bonds while we waited for the rest of the market to "discover" the company we owned. We were long term only investors.

I will tell you that after the 2008 crash, one thing we did was buy about 8 different women's retailers when no one would touch them. We were buyers when everyone was getting out of the market. We made between 400 & 600% on all 8 companies within about 6-8 months. Very nice......

PS: The University of Tennessee was a client.... We did well for them

Thanks for the thoughtful replies, I appreciate all of the insight. I am definitely a proponent of a contrarian mindset. Smart money takes dumb money. Buy when there's blood in the streets. Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

There were life changing investment opportunities in 2008. Unfortunately I was a student at UT at the time, so that crash passed me by. There will be buying opportunities when the next crash happens. At the moment, I'm doing my best to stay diversified, while letting my portfolio ride out the bull market. We do live in interesting times, as the proverb goes.

Likewise, definitely appreciate the wise stewarding of UT's funds.

 

[GoDucks349]

Very cool, which funds were you placing orders for? Historically, how much of an emphasis are you placing on technical analysis over the macro?

Also, just curious in your general opinion about the broader growth of the market. When you were doing this for a living, how much would you hedge against the broader market when you're making ATHs right now? Would you be placing a percentage of your assets in puts, or looking to the technical analysis (fibonacci retracements/harmonic patterns) to look for a short position?

As for dealing with the market during peak markets, you've got to go find value where you can. With this market I might ask the question, who's going to profit most from the trade wars? Are some sectors suffering from the stupid political activities going on today?

One other way to look at things is ask a few questions: Why are HD and Lowes missing estimates? What are the high and low margin product lines for DIY big box warehouse companies. Is it possible Amazon is eating HD and Lowes profits?

Other market questions might center around things like understanding "Opportunity Zones" and who is generating revenue from those tax changes.

 

[GoDucks349]

Thanks for the thoughtful replies, I appreciate all of the insight. I am definitely a proponent of a contrarian mindset. Smart money takes dumb money. Buy when there's blood in the streets. Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

There were life changing investment opportunities in 2008. Unfortunately I was a student at UT at the time, so that crash passed me by. There will be buying opportunities when the next crash happens. At the moment, I'm doing my best to stay diversified, while letting my portfolio ride out the bull market. We do live in interesting times, as the proverb goes.

Likewise, definitely appreciate the wise stewarding of UT's funds.

Avoiding highly levered companies can be a good thing to do prior to a crash. Of course plenty of people have gone wrong trying to predict when and if a crash is going to occur. Personally, I was at 30% cash when the 2008 crash hit. Not because I was predicting a crash, but because I couldn't find anything that looked like a good investment. So I got lucky.

One note on the current market. Only 23% of institutional investors currently believe a recession will occur in the next 2 years. However, it does appear that interest in value stocks by institutional investors seems to be a common topic of discussion. Value stocks tend to be defensive stocks.

I visited UT while you were a student and had the opportunity to answer some difficult questions from the UT Investment Committee. LOL Tough but fair.

If you're not already watching "Squawk Box", take a look. pretty well balance. Andrew, Becky and Joe do a good job.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

As for dealing with the market during peak markets, you've got to go find value where you can. With this market I might ask the question, who's going to profit most from the trade wars? Are some sectors suffering from the stupid political activities going on today?

One other way to look at things is ask a few questions: Why are HD and Lowes missing estimates? What are the high and low margin product lines for DIY big box warehouse companies. Is it possible Amazon is eating HD and Lowes profits?

Other market questions might center around things like understanding "Opportunity Zones" and who is generating revenue from those tax changes.

My guess is that HD and Lowes sell a lot of hardware and tools/equipment that are manufactured, or have lots of components manufactured in China. HD kept reaching new highs through all of the trade chaos and it's finally being reflected in their financials.

Two big items that shouldn't be heavily impacted by China trade or Amazon are floor covering and lumber. They have a fair amount of competition in those spaces. Lumber Liquidators, Floor & Decor, and many, many local lumber distributors and floor covering stores. I also don't recall many devastating hurricanes this year. Every hurricane wipes out millions of square feet of flooring and floor coverings which are then windfalls for HD and Lowes both of which have massive footprints in the SE.

 

[Freak]

If you had to buy 10 core holdings today to keep for 15 years, and they are the only stocks you could own, what would they be? Go.

 

[GoDucks349]

My guess is that HD and Lowes sell a lot of hardware and tools/equipment that are manufactured, or have lots of components manufactured in China. HD kept reaching new highs through all of the trade chaos and it's finally being reflected in their financials.

Two big items that shouldn't be heavily impacted by China trade or Amazon are floor covering and lumber. They have a fair amount of competition in those spaces. Lumber Liquidators, Floor & Decor, and many, many local lumber distributors and floor covering stores. I also don't recall many devastating hurricanes this year. Every hurricane wipes out millions of square feet of flooring and floor coverings which are then windfalls for HD and Lowes both of which have massive footprints in the SE.

I suspect that lumber is a low profit margin product line. Amazon can't compete on lumber and they don't need to.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

If you had to buy 10 core holdings today to keep for 15 years, and they are the only stocks you could own, what would they be? Go.

If only 10 "investments" I'd of course be heavy into some ETFs.

But if stocks only, mostly large cap blue chips at this point in the equities and economic cycle. Mainly tech, financials, and healthcare but maybe some companies that have pulled back from the trade mess.

HD Home Depot
AMZN Amazon
AAPL Apple
MDT Medtronic
BLK Blackrock
FDX FedEx
XOM Exxon
IBM International Business Machines
GOOGL Alphabet
PEP Pepsi

All of those symbols are from memory, so I might have missed one or two. Also that's without looking at recent prices. I know that FDX had pulled way back, but don't know if it's still down. I wouldn't want it to be too expensive with AMZN a threat in that space.

If any of those are real expensive right now I'd possibly substitute with Lockheed Martin (LMT), Boeing (BA), Raytheon (RTH?), and Harris/L3 or what ever that merger was. DIS Disney. Most of the Dow 30 components not already mentioned. Morgan-Stanley (MS). JP Morgan (JPM). Goldman (GS). Schwab (SCHW). Comcast.

I wonder if Kraft-Heinz will bounce back? Yum Brands is another possibility. JNJ Johnson & Johnson. The best Biotech.

Just off the top of my head.

 

[VolAllen]

If you had to buy 10 core holdings today to keep for 15 years, and they are the only stocks you could own, what would they be? Go.

Disney (+64% last 5 years)
Toyota (+20% 5 year)
Target (+88% 5 year)
BofA (+95% 5 year)
Merck (+43% 5 year)

Those 5 will carry you lol