All things STOCKS

#10,526
#10,526
Go aeiou said:
huh, did you sell when we had a drop of 50% ?
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Gosh no. I'm not stupid. At that age, if you're 100% equities, you look around for money to buy more stock, but you don't have any. And I didn't have any. In Y2K I just had to hang on, and I learned some things. For one thing I learned that you can get mentally in a state where you don't want to look at your account or deal with it, and that's bad.

Since you asked, though, I will tell this mild story. I work at Eastman, and so in 2009 it Eastman got down to about $18/share (split since then). Now imagine, if you can, the dividend back then was $1.76. I'm serious. It's pretty easy to look around and see manufacturing is humming along just like normal. Feel free to have any philosophy you want about this observation.

All the money I had, basically, was in my 401k, but luckily I can buy Eastman stock in my 401k. It's a fund they run just for employees and I guess that's pretty common. So I want to sell whatever went down the least and buy Eastman. And that was the ol' standby Fidelity Contra. I guess that was about a third of the account. It doesn't really matter.

In retrospect, two problems:
1. I should have converted everything to Eastman, but Enron was fresh in my mind. There is uncompensated risk.
2. I should have held on basically forever. If a stock triples, you feel like "thank goodness, all my problems are solved, I'll need to sell this" but today, the stock is actually about 13X what it was. That's a lot. You don't know how to see that coming, even from the inside.

Anyway, it all worked out. I'd done some things right and some things wrong. I try to tell young guys that losing half my net worth twice was an example of something I did right. Feel free to miss the point of that. The reason I tell them that is that I think people can think better if they're shocked. It's not their problem, so they don't mind being hit with the challenge of a crisis of rationalization about my problem. Again, feel free to miss the point entirely.

One of the things that bothers me about this is that morons who get paid to write, maybe even famous morons, will write "The stock market was basically flat from 2000 to 2010". These are morons. There's no fundamental significance to the height of that peak and the depth of that valley and the distance between them. I guess I already said that.
 
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#10,527
#10,527
Lost, if you don't sell it you don't lose it some would say.
Hindsight is 20/20.
I was a consultant at Eastman. Knew many people there. They hire the best.
 
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#10,528
#10,528
I’ve learned that I am greedy when others are fearful. So that’s useful, but I can’t time the market.
 
#10,533
#10,533
Loading up on NCLH and JBLU. A bet that there will not be a world war.
At the moment I suspect that cruise ships ae avoiding the Black Sea.
Jet Blue flies mainly to North and South America.
 
#10,534
#10,534
Go aeiou said:
Loading up on NCLH and JBLU. A bet that there will not be a world war.
At the moment I suspect that cruise ships ae avoiding the Black Sea.
Jet Blue flies mainly to North and South America.
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I’ve been long Spirit (SAVE) for several months as a post-pandemic position. I think if I could get a do over I’d rather be in the JETS ETF. I don’t like being on the acquired side of the private equity deal with Frontier. It will result in cash and shares of the merged company, but PEs tend to screw over the small shareholders. I’m kind of surprised that they didn’t make management and the board a lucrative deal for themselves to take SAVE private with Frontier.

I’m not sold on owning a cruise line stock. Even after COVID is erased I think that they will be out of favor for a long time. Lots of people were getting sick on boats even before C-19. I feel like there’s a lot less risk with the airlines and hotels. If I did own a CL it would be Carnival - best of breed philosophy.

Cruise Lines and airlines likely survive and sign decent deals transporting personnel and equipment in all out conflicts. But I don’t expect that type of conclusion to Putin’s apparent insanity.
 
#10,535
#10,535
Pre-market index averages are off 1-1.5% so it will likely be a bad start to the week. However, unless Putin gets even crazier I think the week will end higher than the Friday close.
 
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#10,536
#10,536
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’ve been long Spirit (SAVE) for several months as a post-pandemic position. I think if I could get a do over I’d rather be in the JETS ETF. I don’t like being on the acquired side of the private equity deal with Frontier. It will result in cash and shares of the merged company, but PEs tend to screw over the small shareholders. I’m kind of surprised that they didn’t make management and the board a lucrative deal for themselves to take SAVE private with Frontier.

I’m not sold on owning a cruise line stock. Even after COVID is erased I think that they will be out of favor for a long time. Lots of people were getting sick on boats even before C-19. I feel like there’s a lot less risk with the airlines and hotels. If I did own a CL it would be Carnival - best of breed philosophy.

Cruise Lines and airlines likely survive and sign decent deals transporting personnel and equipment in all out conflicts. But I don’t expect that type of conclusion to Putin’s apparent insanity.
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Carnival is like the SAVE of the Cruise industry. You get what you pay for. RCL seems to be in a better position, imo. Industry leader, larger collection of boats, and from my experience they seem to travel to a larger number of ports than Carnival but without researching I don't know if that is true.
 
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#10,539
#10,539
Carp said:
Carnival is like the SAVE of the Cruise industry. You get what you pay for. RCL seems to be in a better position, imo. Industry leader, larger collection of boats, and from my experience they seem to travel to a larger number of ports than Carnival but without researching I don't know if that is true.
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I might have been thinking of RC. The biggest market cap and/or most reasonable p/e is probably what I am thinking of. I haven’t dug into it either lately as I’m not real interested due to my belief that it will be difficult for the industry to return to pre-pandemic results. I’ve always thought of Norwegian as the next tier below, but I’m far from a cruise line expert of any kind.

I have similar thoughts about movie theaters. But also because of home entertainment alternatives. For some reason I do feel like concerts and sporting events will mostly recover… I’m not consistent with my thought process. I do think that business travel will support the airlines and hotels as well as freight hailing for the airlines.

Airlines will drag post-pandemic. Huge issue with with costs will hold off their profitability. They are most likely hedged in the near term but eventually the costs will hit them. The best hedged will be the fastest to profitability and would also indicate which are best managed. I have no idea how far out the could lock down contracts, but with the cheaper fuel a year ago the best run with enough working capital would have locked into favorable terms.

Cruise lines also have the fuel cost problem. Both have to deal with having to buy their ships and planes years ahead. So competent capital budgeting decisions are also critical.
 
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#10,540
#10,540
Velo Vol said:
Think there's decent support at the Feb 23 low? S&P is not far away from retesting it.
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I’d offer an opinion if I was more of a trader. I primarily look for longer term buy and hold entry points with a tiny amount of short term trading when I occasionally think I’ve spotted easy pickings. I usually pick a company for a trade if i’m cool with keeping it if it runs in the wrong direction on me. I’m horrible at cutting my loses.
 
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#10,541
#10,541
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’d offer an opinion if I was more of a trader. I primarily look for longer term buy and hold entry points with a tiny amount of short term trading when I occasionally think I’ve spotted easy pickings. I usually pick a company for a trade if i’m cool with keeping it if it runs in the wrong direction on me. I’m horrible at cutting my loses.
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I guess we're about to find out. I just bought of chunk of VOO with thoughts of short-term S&P trade.

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#10,544
#10,544
Carp said:
Carnival is like the SAVE of the Cruise industry. You get what you pay for. RCL seems to be in a better position, imo. Industry leader, larger collection of boats, and from my experience they seem to travel to a larger number of ports than Carnival but without researching I don't know if that is true.
Click to expand...
How do you compare CCL to Spirit? CCL has 87 ships. RCL has 61. CCL visits 700+ ports. RCL, 800+. NCLH, 27 ships and about 500 ports.
Each corporation owns multiple cruise lines.
 
#10,545
#10,545
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I might have been thinking of RC. The biggest market cap and/or most reasonable p/e is probably what I am thinking of. I haven’t dug into it either lately as I’m not real interested due to my belief that it will be difficult for the industry to return to pre-pandemic results. I’ve always thought of Norwegian as the next tier below, but I’m far from a cruise line expert of any kind.

I have similar thoughts about movie theaters. But also because of home entertainment alternatives. For some reason I do feel like concerts and sporting events will mostly recover… I’m not consistent with my thought process. I do think that business travel will support the airlines and hotels as well as freight hailing for the airlines.

Airlines will drag post-pandemic. Huge issue with with costs will hold off their profitability. They are most likely hedged in the near term but eventually the costs will hit them. The best hedged will be the fastest to profitability and would also indicate which are best managed. I have no idea how far out the could lock down contracts, but with the cheaper fuel a year ago the best run with enough working capital would have locked into favorable terms.

Cruise lines also have the fuel cost problem. Both have to deal with having to buy their ships and planes years ahead. So competent capital budgeting decisions are also critical.
Click to expand...

Cruise lines have a fuel surcharge that they occasionally(like now) use. It is built into their contract, and the charge is added to the passenger's account while on the ship.
We have been traveling and sailing for thirty plus years, and I've thought cruising would become less popular for at least twenty years. They continue to build more and larger ships, and more people than ever sail. The large ships are not for us.
I've owned CCL, RCL and NCLH. Each give you on board credit if you own 100 shares. That has been worth $3500-5000 to us. As an investment I prefer CCL, and NCLH. All should suffer as they recover from Covid problems.
 
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#10,546
#10,546
FNTY9SDXMAEWQcm
 
#10,547
#10,547
Go aeiou said:
How do you compare CCL to Spirit? CCL has 87 ships. RCL has 61. CCL visits 700+ ports. RCL, 800+. NCLH, 27 ships and about 500 ports.
Each corporation owns multiple cruise lines.
Click to expand...

Looks like you're right. I had some bad info there. I was going off memory from when I traded them last year. Could have sworn that RCL owned more ships.
 
#10,548
#10,548
We're a long long way from recession now, but if people try not to buy things from Russia, a lot of the world economy gets effected by that. I guess shortages would be where you'd see stagflation and that's what we'd have if we don't buy from Russia. I don't see how people can really do that.
 
#10,549
#10,549
Firebirdparts said:
We're a long long way from recession now, but if people try not to buy things from Russia, a lot of the world economy gets effected by that. I guess shortages would be where you'd see stagflation and that's what we'd have if we don't buy from Russia. I don't see how people can really do that.
Click to expand...
What do we want to buy from Russia that’s not available elsewhere?
 
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