All things STOCKS

[Firebirdparts]

Okay, I lied. I do own one thing that is up 10% today: It's ASO academy sports. This stock has sucked despite outrageous huge earnings forever. I hate retail stocks, but with the huge overperformance of the company itself, I couldn't bring myself to take a loss on it. Sometimes a stock will go down against all reasonableness and this is one. I will not sell it because still underwater and I'm just not inclined to take a loss on it.

 

[05_never_again]

I bet 75% of the retail traders gained in the last two years are done with trading by end of 2022 or 2023.

I think many are done already. The VWAP since inception for ARKK (not just the last year or two, but since ARKK has existed) is just over $100. The average participant, assuming that they are still holding today, is down almost 50%.

Bitcoin and crypto generally is no longer as exciting as it was either. Bitcoin has gone nowhere since January 2021; that's over a year. There's been a lot of volatility, but if you have "diamond hands" and didn't take profits I'm sure that's frustrating.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I'm getting a bad vibe now, like maybe sell some in rallies rather than buying dips?

Is that wrong?

Timing markets is usually wrong. Missing the sudden reversals is the downside.

What I like to do is to take smaller bits with LT buys when it’s volatile and choppy.

There is so much cash out there without easy options, even a crash shouldn’t be too painful for Longs. If interest rates double, then bonds will become attractive.

If the cash isn’t rolled into investment securities, it will go into the economy. Goods. Services. Housing. People gonna buy their ****.

I think that election years are usually pretty safe. If the economy is struggling, there is optimism that changes are afoot. If the economy is doing well then no changes in office holders can have a positive psychological impact on investors.

Of course, Putin is turning into quite the madman AND he has access to nukes. Anything goes in this environment. He might be crazy enough to bully a minor NATO member. Then all bets are off. Buy lead.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Okay, I lied. I do own one thing that is up 10% today: It's ASO academy sports. This stock has sucked despite outrageous huge earnings forever. I hate retail stocks, but with the huge overperformance of the company itself, I couldn't bring myself to take a loss on it. Sometimes a stock will go down against all reasonableness and this is one. I will not sell it because still underwater and I'm just not inclined to take a loss on it.

I think they sell guns and ammo, correct?

 

[Go aeiou]

I'm getting a bad vibe now, like maybe sell some in rallies rather than buying dips?

Is that wrong?

Ouija board says that is correct. There is too much positive talk about AMZN these days.

 

[Firebirdparts]

I need to consult Zoltar as well.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

I’m baffled. I guess it is why investment managers can charge 1% for their work.

Anybody that thinks buying shares after stock splits are announced, please read this about 10 times. And maybe how arbitrage works as well.

Stock Split

You know there's stupid, emotionally driven people out there right? Did you pay attention to GME, AMC, Shiba, etc? Even in the age of fractional shares stock splits have some sort of psychological hold on people. I had no intention of holding TSLA long term, I bought it pre split and it nearly tripled in value within a year. I more than doubled my investment which I thought was pretty decent for the amount of effort I put in. The people pushing these swings don't care about market cap, EPS, etc. They care about stock go up. And if you can mingle in with them, make a dollar, and get out, you're doing it right.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I don’t expect everybody to fully understand stock splits as soon as they begin investing in individual stocks. But after a certain amount of time they need to educate themselves better.

The ignorance does stimulate some buying interest. I guess that is why splits are still a thing. But the arbitrager’s algorithms are going to grab most of that initial surge.

 

[Go aeiou]

I don’t expect everybody to fully understand stock splits as soon as they begin investing in individual stocks. But after a certain amount of time they need to educate themselves better.

The ignorance does stimulate some buying interest. I guess that is why splits are still a thing. But the arbitrager’s algorithms are going to grab most of that initial surge.

Some people simply have no financial smarts. you can give them $1,000,000, and it will be gone in a year. Our bank has had several customers win substantial amounts in the lottery, and almost 100% have spent it on things like boats, cars, vacations, clothes, family, etc. and it goes quickly.
when it comes to stocks many people buy solely based on recommendations they read on reddit, face book, etc. and they believe that is how everyone in the market trades.
My only point is some people will never learn.

 

[KnoxLandcruiser]

Some people simply have no financial smarts. you can give them $1,000,000, and it will be gone in a year. Our bank has had several customers win substantial amounts in the lottery, and almost 100% have spent it on things like boats, cars, vacations, clothes, family, etc. and it goes quickly.
when it comes to stocks many people buy solely based on recommendations they read on reddit, face book, etc. and they believe that is how everyone in the market trades.
My only point is some people will never learn.

People who come into "lump sum money" rarely properly estimate the carrying costs of larger homes, boats, expensive cars, etc. Unless they also come into a new cash flow situation it's a recipe for disaster.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Some people simply have no financial smarts. you can give them $1,000,000, and it will be gone in a year. Our bank has had several customers win substantial amounts in the lottery, and almost 100% have spent it on things like boats, cars, vacations, clothes, family, etc. and it goes quickly.
when it comes to stocks many people buy solely based on recommendations they read on reddit, face book, etc. and they believe that is how everyone in the market trades.
My only point is some people will never learn.

I bet that there’s a strong positive correlation between lottery players (excluding those kicking in small amounts for fun) and those that never move on from stock splits being something to celebrate to excess. They are fun for beginners to look at on statements and when receiving physical certificates (do they still offer those?), but anybody that is seriously excited about the splits is most ljj in ely s newbie or a short term trader playing on other’s emotions.

Bottom line for those in the thread to learn about stocks and investing, stock splits are almost a nothing burger.

Now let’s do Stock Dividends.

 

[Velo Vol]

Timing markets is usually wrong. Missing the sudden reversals is the downside.

I know, but given the gains of the last two years, valuations, inflation, end of QE, a slowing economy, it just doesn't seem like a 13% selloff from the all-time high is going to be the extent of the correction.

Yes, one could miss out on big gains, but as this video points out, those generally occur after even bigger down days. Interesting discussion here.

 

[ninerplaya57]

Hoping you guys can point me in the right direction here but I am in the process of selling my home while the market is hot and I plan on using the money from the home to buy land and build another home in a couple years (hopefully when prices go back to normal). In the meantime I’m torn on how to invest the money. The market being so unstable right now scares me but interest rates on cds and savings accts are so minimal I’m not sure what to do. I don’t want to do anything risky because I will need the money but I’m also not sure how long it will take for building material prices to drop. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Hoping you guys can point me in the right direction here but I am in the process of selling my home while the market is hot and I plan on using the money from the home to buy land and build another home in a couple years (hopefully when prices go back to normal). In the meantime I’m torn on how to invest the money. The market being so unstable right now scares me but interest rates on cds and savings accts are so minimal I’m not sure what to do. I don’t want to do anything risky because I will need the money but I’m also not sure how long it will take for building material prices to drop. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

Put it in CDs and savings accounts. You said that you will need the money. Unless you can delay when it is needed it has zero business being invested as risk capital.

The only exception could be some sort of very low risk short term corporate or government debt. There is some government program to buy bonds directly in limited quantities and get a very good (relative) return. The link gets posted on here periodically. Government Direct or something.

You don’t want to be in a LT debt fund as those funds will drop in value when interest rates rise. You’d be better off in something that can be held to the full term so that the market value of the principal is removed from the equation.

If you do want to roll the dice, a large diversified equity fund might be what you want. Something like a DJIA (DIA for example) or S&P 500 (SPY) ETF. The QQQs (tracks the NASDAQ 100 Index) are typically riskier. VTI is an efficient, large, well diversified ETF from Vanguard that will do pretty well as the economy improves, but do the opposite as the economy does poorly. BUT… the economy is NOT the stock market and vice versa. You do NOT have to have a Vanguard account to invest in their funds.

I would suggest visiting a Charles Schwab office if you have one nearby. They should be able to put you into appropriate investment vehicles. You can also open an account online if there isn't a brick and mortar Schwab office nearby. Those direct government bonds are probably something that Schwab won’t encourage you to participate in. You get those - DIRECTly from the government.

There are specific tax rules when selling your residence as well. You get to exclude and/or defer paying taxes on all or a lot of your gains but there are guidelines to follow to take advantage of them.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

One idea, and it breaks a few rules of investing, if you invest the cash in a REIT then it MIGHT keep up (or follow real estate when it goes down) with the real estate that you are directly owning. There are many “flavors” of Real Estate Investment Trusts, but you’d kind of be keeping your money in the same place. Of course the costs of building aren’t exactly equal to actual real estate, but they probably move somewhat together. Rental based REITs that aren’t building units might be detached from construction costs.

There are a couple of ETFs that kind of follow housing costs. ITB and XHB. One of them is more directly home building and the other includes things like furnishings and appliances. I think that ITB is the broader while XHB is more of a pure play home builders exchange traded fund.

 

[ninerplaya57]

Thank you Thunder! Always appreciate your insight!

 

[Go aeiou]

Hoping you guys can point me in the right direction here but I am in the process of selling my home while the market is hot and I plan on using the money from the home to buy land and build another home in a couple years (hopefully when prices go back to normal). In the meantime I’m torn on how to invest the money. The market being so unstable right now scares me but interest rates on cds and savings accts are so minimal I’m not sure what to do. I don’t want to do anything risky because I will need the money but I’m also not sure how long it will take for building material prices to drop. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

It appears you will have higher mortgage rates in two years if that matters. rates are not often predictable though.

 

[walkenvol]

Hoping you guys can point me in the right direction here but I am in the process of selling my home while the market is hot and I plan on using the money from the home to buy land and build another home in a couple years (hopefully when prices go back to normal). In the meantime I’m torn on how to invest the money. The market being so unstable right now scares me but interest rates on cds and savings accts are so minimal I’m not sure what to do. I don’t want to do anything risky because I will need the money but I’m also not sure how long it will take for building material prices to drop. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

Most financial advisors recommend not putting money that you will need within the next 3-5 years into equities. Personally if I were doing what you described I wouldn’t get near this market as it’s likely to be crazy for the near term.

 

[Velo Vol]

Big day for YOLO traders.

 

[Firebirdparts]

It's been a strange day for sure. I mentioned here MU and UCTT in plummet mode 2 days ago. Both up about 9% today. Largely unaffected by the market's brief reaction to Fed tightening, too.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

It's been a strange day for sure. I mentioned here MU and UCTT in plummet mode 2 days ago. Both up about 9% today. Largely unaffected by the market's brief reaction to Fed tightening, too.

I had a good day. It would have been great if LMT didn’t take a 6% haircut. It’s my 2nd largest individual equity position.

 

[ninerplaya57]

Most financial advisors recommend not putting money that you will need within the next 3-5 years into equities. Personally if I were doing what you described I wouldn’t get near this market as it’s likely to be crazy for the near term.

Yea, this market scares me. I’d just hate to put that much money in a cd getting .25% especially if it won’t be a few years until I touch it.

 

[ninerplaya57]

It appears you will have higher mortgage rates in two years if that matters. rates are not often predictable though.

Yea, goal is to pay cash for the house or if I do end up with a mortgage it be for a lot less of an amount.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Individual

 

[@1RBFjr]

Yea, this market scares me. I’d just hate to put that much money in a cd getting .25% especially if it won’t be a few years until I touch it.

Look online at bankrate.com . You probably can find 0.5% or more FDIC insured savings, not tied up in a CD. Not great, but better than .25%.