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#10,627
#10,627
What I would do, and I have a different comfort level with risk, is to put 20%-25% in VTI. Then split the 75% between a short duration corporate bond fund and some type of longer term fund (3-5 years). This is assuming that 100% of the total won’t be needed immediately. That way the short duration fund can be drawn from initially and if VTI does drop in value there is some time to wait for the fund to bounce back.

If equities across the board (and VTI) fall by let’s say 25%, then the total shouldn’t fall below 93.75% at that low point.

With inflation running say 5%, then there is a hidden loss of value even if 100% is invested in 0.5% CDs. You just don’t get a statement every month explicitly showing the loss. There is that inflation erosion risk when staying only in “cash”.

If VTI (with 25% of the total) can return 10% for each of 3 years then the the grand total would be north of 110% (before taxes) after 3 years. But if losing 10% causes somebody to fret and lose sleep, then 100% in short duration and “a couple of years to maturity” debt vehicle is the better idea.

If the 25% invested in VTI can grow at 20% over 3 years, then the grand total will be more than 120%.
 
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#10,628
#10,628
Thunder Good-Oil said:
What I would do, and I have a different comfort level with risk, is to put 20%-25% in VTI. Then split the 75% between a short duration corporate bond fund and some type of longer term fund (3-5 years). This is assuming that 100% of the total won’t be needed immediately. That way the short duration fund can be drawn from initially and if VTI does drop in value there is some time to wait for the fund to bounce back.

If equities across the board (and VTI) fall by let’s say 25%, then the total shouldn’t fall below 93.75% at that low point.

With inflation running say 5%, then there is a hidden loss of value even if 100% is invested in 0.5% CDs. You just don’t get a statement every month explicitly showing the loss. There is that inflation erosion risk when staying only in “cash”.

If VTI (with 25% of the total) can return 10% for each of 3 years then the the grand total would be north of 110% (before taxes) after 3 years. But if losing 10% causes somebody to fret and lose sleep, then 100% in short duration and “a couple of years to maturity” debt vehicle is the better idea.

If the 25% invested in VTI can grow at 20% over 3 years, then the grand total will be more than 120%.
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Thank you. I’m assuming it is going to take 3-5 years before I’m able to build. Granted I could build now with the proceeds of the home, but I want to try to wait until prices for lumber and all other materials go back to somewhat pre-pandemic pricing (if that ever does happen). I will also have to buy land to build on with the money and right now prices are astronomical (I live in NJ).
I appreciate all your info. What are your thoughts on a VOO vs the VTI?
You make a great point about inflation. As far as risk goes, I understand the possibility that I can lose I also know the stock market has always come back when down. I just don’t want to wait 10 years (just throwing a number out there) if the market were to crash with everything going on and have to wait on building trying to recover lost funds. I’m also new to investing and need to talk with my accountant about tax implications. The amount of money from this is life changing for me and I’m scared to death of screwing it up. I’m in my mid 30s and I’ll probably have roughly 400k to invest from this. If that helps any.
 
#10,629
#10,629
I spend a lot of time on bogleheads where VOO vs VTI is their specialty. They generally find it doesn’t make a difference since VTI (and equivalent VTSAX) are cap weighted.
 
#10,630
#10,630
ninerplaya57 said:
Thank you. I’m assuming it is going to take 3-5 years before I’m able to build. Granted I could build now with the proceeds of the home, but I want to try to wait until prices for lumber and all other materials go back to somewhat pre-pandemic pricing (if that ever does happen). I will also have to buy land to build on with the money and right now prices are astronomical (I live in NJ).
I appreciate all your info. What are your thoughts on a VOO vs the VTI?
You make a great point about inflation. As far as risk goes, I understand the possibility that I can lose I also know the stock market has always come back when down. I just don’t want to wait 10 years (just throwing a number out there) if the market were to crash with everything going on and have to wait on building trying to recover lost funds. I’m also new to investing and need to talk with my accountant about tax implications. The amount of money from this is life changing for me and I’m scared to death of screwing it up. I’m in my mid 30s and I’ll probably have roughly 400k to invest from this. If that helps any.
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I'm in TN, and own both commercial and rural land with my partners. Prices are going up in substantially right now. We have received offers just below our asking price on two tracts in the last month. We declined both offers, and raised our asking price.
I don't see the price of land going down materially. Much more likely to continue to go up.
The old saying is "land, they aren't making any more of it".

You might also consider the advice as posted from TGO about staying in the housing/real estate market by investing in reits/etfs with a small amount of your cash. The market on housing might continue to go up.???
 
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#10,635
#10,635
TC 83 said:
NVOS
Start small and accumulate under 1.80
You can thank me in a few months.
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200w.gif
 
#10,636
#10,636
Tried to buy CG, APO, and CRM today but missed by about 1% and didn’t keep as GTC. I might change Apollo to good till cancelled. Maybe CRM as well. I like the alt investment names in a challenging environment with clients looking to find returns. They are probably under pressure with possible tax reform and an attack on carried interest. I like CRM and AMZN as long term cloud investments. AMZN has the e-commerce side to keep the cash flowing in and web services is one of the premiere businesses in the world. I bet that AMZN separates into two companies eventually.

I still have a GTC limit buy on AMZN from a week or two ago that has since surged. I’d like to own it but it might not pull back until after the split enthusiasm settles down.

I have some oil service names that I want to add to, but I think I’ll be patient. It’s hard to say if they’ll have good revenues building out alternatives to Russia or will they lag because of lost revenue directly related to Russian oil. Eventually they should do well once the dumb US policies surrounding domestic production are reversed.

Leisure names were getting pounded today. THO and BC. Actually the biggest losers I’m watching seemed to be the stay at home, fix up the home, recreation with the family types of names. Maybe an indicator that the post pandemic stocks will soon rally.
 
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#10,637
#10,637
Picked up a bit of AMT, CL, and NEE today to improve exposure to a few sectors where I felt I was lacking.

As much as I like SO (especially once they wrap up Vogtle) due to familiarity, NEE seemed like a good choice due to their renewables exposure.

AMT gives me exposure to cell towers and data centers, which are likely going to be in solid demand year after year moving forward.

CL because...I like my toofuses shiny.
 
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#10,639
#10,639
It seems like NextEra, SO, and others should be well positioned with EVs being in favor and likely going to be with a long term trend away from internal combustion. I’ve owned Dominion (D) for a while and it hasn’t been all that. NEE has had a really good 2-year upward move. I wouldn’t mind owning NEE or XLU. But those with good dividends might be lagging as the rate hikes loom. Bonds with the higher yields will compete for those investor dollars and it will cost the utility companies more to borrow for infrastructure upgrades.

Maybe the engineering stocks will be in favor for an extended time frame as the landscape changes to recharge those batteries and rebuild the US transportation infrastructure. AECOM (ACM)? Fluor (FLR)? KKR? Jacobs (J)? Somebody will also be repairing the destruction in Ukraine.
 
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#10,640
#10,640
If you’re bullish on power companies you might consider ED who serves NYC. I bought some a while back after they passed the law banning natural gas from new building construction and it’s had a nice bump in spite of the recent pull back in the market.

I’ve had a stake in D for several years that I added after their pull back following their failed nuclear plant construction that resulted in a good return but it’s gone pretty flat since and I’m considering moving those dollars to add to my holdings in Duke or Southern. What’s your thoughts there?
 
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#10,642
#10,642
MOS holy cow.

I had traded AEP a little bit too for power companies (bought it the first time on an executive-bribe-related dip) but unfortunately I missed the most recent entry point in the mid-80's. Don't have any now. Seems like a decent swing trade, but also a long-term hold would be okay if you wanted dividends. For the money, it seems awfully safe and I personally pay them anyway.
 
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#10,643
#10,643
INTC finally heating up. Hopefully the start of good things. Ideally, see $60 by the end of June before I sell. Going to start digging more into some plays for the coming months.
 
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#10,644
#10,644
Carp said:
INTC finally heating up. Hopefully the start of good things. Ideally, see $60 by the end of June before I sell. Going to start digging more into some plays for the coming months.
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I’ve been watching it for a while. On days when the entire market was getting destroyed, Intel held up very well. It never approaches my buy limit and I don’t have it set far below the price.
 
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#10,648
#10,648
Velo Vol said:
Mortgage rates. Not good for housing.

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There are a bunch of houses around me going on the market right now. Probably more in the last month than the total in previous couple of years. Owners are wanting to take profits. Homeowners buy based on what they can pay each month. More interest leaves less for the seller of the real estate. There’s still demand, so I think house prices will just be flat for the next 5 years rather than pull back hard.

Two of three key stats are working against the economy. Interest rates and inflation are putting pressure on consumers and manufacturing. Unemployment being low props up commerce. The labor market is favoring those that are willing to work - labor costs are pressuring a lot of industries.
 
#10,649
#10,649
Thunder Good-Oil said:
There are a bunch of houses around me going on the market right now. Probably more in the last month than the total in previous couple of years. Owners are wanting to take profits. Homeowners buy based on what they can pay each month. More interest leaves less for the seller of the real estate. There’s still demand, so I think house prices will just be flat for the next 5 years rather than pull back hard.
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Yeah, rates are unlikely high enough for prices to go negative, but this should certainly put the brakes on the rate of growth. It'll likely decrease the number of sales, too.
 
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