All things STOCKS

[Velo Vol]

I really don't know. What I do know is that this has now turned into a massive credit event and liquidity has dried up. Combined with GDP, inflation, and tech not saving us, well take a guess as to what you think will happen.

For whom?

 

[mrorange211]

For whom?

Institutional entities, including hedge funds are in max pain and the credit lines have dried up.

 

[headhunter15]

What’s it going to take to get out of this? I’m not the biggest macro or micro economic person.

 

[mrorange211]

It going to take Fed panic but that will only happen after investor panic. Investor panic is starting.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

This to me feels more like capitulation than a crash. Even with the rate hikes, they are nowhere close to the levels of the early 1980s. Full employment. Really not anything close to historically high interest rates. Not having well over 50% marginal individual tax rates. 6 months to mid-terms (maybe the Right takes back control before the Left does something crazy with tax policy).

I don’t think that supply chain issues will be getting a whole lot worse. The current pandemic becoming manageable. De-globalization should benefit the US. I think that inflation is very much related to oil prices. We were energy independent a year or two ago.

If there are tax hikes coming, those additional revenues should be used to pay down debt (it’ll never happen) or invest in infrastructure. Nothing should be used to forgive student debt. It is so unfair to take from the hard working plumbers, roofers, electricians, and others to give handouts to 20 something’s that thought it was a good idea to pursue poetry and gender studies degrees while taking out loans to fund that nonsense.

A lot of good companies are on sale right now. In the near term they very well could be marked down even more. It is a guess - pure speculation - as to when equities reverse. Actually owning debt is becoming relevant again after kind of going away for a decade of more.

 

[Velo Vol]

Institutional entities, including hedge funds are in max pain and the credit lines have dried up.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your take seems to be that the market is going down because people are selling. Which is obviously true, but not a very satisfying explanation.

What's new now (not known a month ago) that would push it well below last month's low?

 

[Velo Vol]

This to me feels more like capitulation than a crash. Even with the rate hikes, they are nowhere close to the levels of the early 1980s. Full employment. Really not anything close to historically high interest rates. Not having well over 50% marginal individual tax rates. 6 months to mid-terms (maybe the Right takes back control before the Left does something crazy with tax policy).

I don’t think that supply chain issues will be getting a whole lot worse. The current pandemic becoming manageable. De-globalization should benefit the US. I think that inflation is very much related to oil prices. We were energy independent a year or two ago.

If there are tax hikes coming, those additional revenues should be used to pay down debt (it’ll never happen) or invest in infrastructure. Nothing should be used to forgive student debt. It is so unfair to take from the hard working plumbers, roofers, electricians, and others to give handouts to 20 something’s that thought it was a good idea to pursue poetry and gender studies degrees while taking out loans to fund that nonsense.

A lot of good companies are on sale right now. In the near term they very well could be marked down even more. It is a guess - pure speculation - as to when equities reverse. Actually owning debt is becoming relevant again after kind of going away for a decade of more.

No.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

No.

Yes. Unless the rest of the first world matches the contributions from the US to police the bad players around the world and the access to their consumers is the same as the US consumer is there to be exploited by them, yes. Also bringing manufacturing back is far better than being dependent on places like China to keep the supply chain flowing. Protecting Germany from Russia while allowing them to become dependent on Putin for energy was insanity. Globalization would be cool. If we were a net exporter.

 

[Velo Vol]

Yes. Unless the rest of the first world matches the contributions from the US to police the bad players around the world and the access to their consumers is the same as the US consumer is there to be exploited by them, yes. Also bringing manufacturing back is far better than being dependent on places like China to keep the supply chain flowing. Protecting Germany from Russia while allowing them to become dependent on Putin for energy was insanity. Globalization would be cool. If we were a net exporter.

If you want to say "diversify supply chains", so we're not dependent on Russia/China for essential goods, that's fine.

But strict "de-globalization," as in reducing global trade, is part of the reason we've gotten into this inflationary mess.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

If you want to say "diversify supply chains", so we're not dependent on Russia/China for essential goods, that's fine.

But strict "de-globalization," as in reducing global trade, is part of the reason we've gotten into this inflationary mess.

The smaller countries selling to the US consumers are the bigger beneficiaries.

De-globalization is happening. Did the US send troops to Ukraine? Nope. And Putin knew we wouldn’t.

De-globalization means that we use the labor and materials from this hemisphere. We can do better at mining Canada and we can optimize labor available south of the border.

 

[mrorange211]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your take seems to be that the market is going down because people are selling. Which is obviously true, but not a very satisfying explanation.

What's new now (not known a month ago) that would push it well below last month's low?

 

[Velo Vol]

De-globalization is happening. Did the US send troops to Ukraine? Nope. And Putin knew we wouldn’t.

Yes, it's been happening--that doesn't mean it's economically beneficial. Not central to your argument, but I don't think the US not fighting in UKR is a reflection of the recent trend. The US has been wary of not directly combating Russia since WWII, for good reason!

View attachment 451429

The market has expected ~seven hikes since the beginning of the year. You're saying it increased rate expectations in late April?

I'm doubtful it will go > 2.5%. We're already seeing inflation lose some steam with only a 0.25% hike.

 

[mrorange211]

Yes, it's been happening--that doesn't mean it's economically beneficial. Not central to your argument, but I don't think the US not fighting in UKR is a reflection of the recent trend. The US has been wary of not directly combating Russia since WWII, for good reason!

The market has expected ~seven hikes since the beginning of the year. You're saying it increased rate expectations in late April?

I'm doubtful it will go > 2.5%. We're already seeing inflation lose some steam with only a 0.25% hike.

Im not sure what your point is

 

[Firebirdparts]

It ain’t “priced in”

 

[Go aeiou]

The smaller countries selling to the US consumers are the bigger beneficiaries.

De-globalization is happening. Did the US send troops to Ukraine? Nope. And Putin knew we wouldn’t.
He also knew European countries would not.
De-globalization means that we use the labor and materials from this hemisphere. We can do better at mining Canada and we can optimize labor available south of the border.

Which half of the world do you want in "this hemisphere"? Northern or draw and imaginary line?

 

[walkenvol]

This to me feels more like capitulation than a crash. Even with the rate hikes, they are nowhere close to the levels of the early 1980s. Full employment. Really not anything close to historically high interest rates. Not having well over 50% marginal individual tax rates. 6 months to mid-terms (maybe the Right takes back control before the Left does something crazy with tax policy).

I don’t think that supply chain issues will be getting a whole lot worse. The current pandemic becoming manageable. De-globalization should benefit the US. I think that inflation is very much related to oil prices. We were energy independent a year or two ago.

If there are tax hikes coming, those additional revenues should be used to pay down debt (it’ll never happen) or invest in infrastructure. Nothing should be used to forgive student debt. It is so unfair to take from the hard working plumbers, roofers, electricians, and others to give handouts to 20 something’s that thought it was a good idea to pursue poetry and gender studies degrees while taking out loans to fund that nonsense.

A lot of good companies are on sale right now. In the near term they very well could be marked down even more. It is a guess - pure speculation - as to when equities reverse. Actually owning debt is becoming relevant again after kind of going away for a decade of more.

Why single out student debt forgiveness as something the gov should avoid, but they’re handed out $billons to large corporations via the small business Covid relief program. Huge chucks to bail out financial companies in 2008. Huge tax cut 4 years back which always benefits the wealthiest. I’m retired and if there’s one hand out I’d be least against it is student loan forgiveness. Instead of these 20-30 somethings putting their money into buying homes or consumer goods to drive the economy, they’re paying off student debt with a big chunk of their earnings. They should reform the student loan process to where the academic institutions have to find employment for their grads or they are on hook for half the loan. What service in our nation has inflated their price more than colleges over the past 40 years and it was done squarely on the backs of student loan money.

 

[volfanhill]

Why single out student debt forgiveness as something the gov should avoid, but they’re handed out $billons to large corporations via the small business Covid relief program. Huge chucks to bail out financial companies in 2008. Huge tax cut 4 years back which always benefits the wealthiest. I’m retired and if there’s one hand out I’d be least against it is student loan forgiveness. Instead of these 20-30 somethings putting their money into buying homes or consumer goods to drive the economy, they’re paying off student debt with a big chunk of their earnings. They should reform the student loan process to where the academic institutions have to find employment for their grads or they are on hook for half the loan. What service in our nation has inflated their price more than colleges over the past 40 years and it was done squarely on the backs of student loan money.

Just bc we made dumb decisions in the past, in the form of bailouts, doesn't mean we should keep making dumb decisions.

 

[Go aeiou]

Why single out student debt forgiveness as something the gov should avoid, but they’re handed out $billons to large corporations via the small business Covid relief program. Huge chucks to bail out financial companies in 2008. Huge tax cut 4 years back which always benefits the wealthiest. I’m retired and if there’s one hand out I’d be least against it is student loan forgiveness. Instead of these 20-30 somethings putting their money into buying homes or consumer goods to drive the economy, they’re paying off student debt with a big chunk of their earnings. They should reform the student loan process to where the academic institutions have to find employment for their grads or they are on hook for half the loan. What service in our nation has inflated their price more than colleges over the past 40 years and it was done squarely on the backs of student loan money.

Also fairly high interest rates and you're on the hook forever. you cannot bankrupt on student loans.

 

[walkenvol]

Also fairly high interest rates and you're on the hook forever. you cannot bankrupt on student loans.

Further supports my position. How does it benefit this country to have their young adults in indentured servitude paying off debts for education at an inflated interest rate? Another attack on the middle class

 

[walkenvol]

Just bc we made dumb decisions in the past, in the form of bailouts, doesn't mean we should keep making dumb decisions.

We continue to operate under the Trump tax code so that’s not a bailout in the past.

Look, I’m a fiscally conservative guy who’s been debt free since I was 39 years old. I’m not in support of handouts in general, but if our government is going to remain in the handout business then I don’t see very many more beneficial handouts short of caring for those who can’t care for themselves. JMO and I’d welcome anyone to change my mind with an intelligent argument

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

We continue to operate under the Trump tax code so that’s not a bailout in the past.

Look, I’m a fiscally conservative guy who’s been debt free since I was 39 years old. I’m not in support of handouts in general, but if our government is going to remain in the handout business then I don’t see very many more beneficial handouts short of caring for those who can’t care for themselves. JMO and I’d welcome anyone to change my mind with an intelligent argument

The biggest benefit that large corporations got with COVID was Employee Retention Credit. It gave large corporations a tax credit for continuing to pay employees while their businesses were shut down because of government orders. I would say that's a lot different than someone taking out and agreeing to repay a $100K student loan to study medieval lit and bitch about it being unfair they have to pay it back.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Which half of the world do you want in "this hemisphere"? Northern or draw and imaginary line?

Western

 

[walkenvol]

The biggest benefit that large corporations got with COVID was Employee Retention Credit. It gave large corporations a tax credit for continuing to pay employees while their businesses were shut down because of government orders. I would say that's a lot different than someone taking out and agreeing to repay a $100K student loan to study medieval lit and bitch about it being unfair they have to pay it back.

Your memory of PPP fraud is much different from mine.

I completely agree that it’s a fiscally unwise choice for a 18-22 y o to borrow $100K for a unmarketable degree - no argument there. But, doesn’t the institution that took the money from the foolish student have a hand in the problem? And once the mistake was made, how much does it hurt the American economy to suck up all the foolish student’s discretionary money for 10-15 years that could have gone towards housing or retirement savings? As far as handouts go, this one would bother me about least of all.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Your memory of PPP fraud is much different from mine.

I completely agree that it’s a fiscally unwise choice for a 18-22 y o to borrow $100K for a unmarketable degree - no argument there. But, doesn’t the institution that took the money from the foolish student have a hand in the problem? And once the mistake was made, how much does it hurt the American economy to suck up all the foolish student’s discretionary money for 10-15 years that could have gone towards housing or retirement savings? As far as handouts go, this one would bother me about least of all.

PPP is completely different than Employee Retention Credit. 2 different programs. Most super large corps didn't pursue PPP because of the relatively small limits and the fact that they couldn't double dip that and Employee Retention Credit at the beginning (this did get reversed in early 21 but the PPP money was dried up by then)

There was absolutely fraud with PPP. No arguments there. Very poorly drawn up legislation by the Rs without enough oversight.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Why single out student debt forgiveness as something the gov should avoid, but they’re handed out $billons to large corporations via the small business Covid relief program. Huge chucks to bail out financial companies in 2008. Huge tax cut 4 years back which always benefits the wealthiest. I’m retired and if there’s one hand out I’d be least against it is student loan forgiveness. Instead of these 20-30 somethings putting their money into buying homes or consumer goods to drive the economy, they’re paying off student debt with a big chunk of their earnings. They should reform the student loan process to where the academic institutions have to find employment for their grads or they are on hook for half the loan. What service in our nation has inflated their price more than colleges over the past 40 years and it was done squarely on the backs of student loan money.

Because it is approaching $2 trillion and one party is leveraging the suggestion to buy votes.

Another, which isn’t newly proposed but costs taxpayers considerably, I believe that when federal money is used for new buildings 10% of the budget must be used for art.

There is waste everywhere. Cancelling student loans is IMO one of the most costly and most unfair proposals. Therefore I’ve singled it out. I find it especially egregious to tax any worker that did not go to college to fund the mistakes of privileged kids that made the bad choice of accepting loans to fund unmarketable degrees.

But this isn’t the Politics Forum, so I’m generally not interested in arguing government expenditures that are targeted at accumulating political capital for votes. I think that it is a far more direct economic stimulus to fund projects. Like roads, airports, pipelines, electrical grids - even green power if there’s a real return on the government investment.