All things STOCKS

#10,852
#10,852
Velo Vol said:
Why I don't get the day-to-day price moves of Wall Street, episode 476.
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Equity valuations always overshoot to the upside and to the downside. Markets have been going nuts with any variance from consensus expectations of the data. April shouldn’t have gone down as much as it did, BUT before April… levels were really kind of high with Putin, supply chain chaos (China), inflation (especially the heavy oil dependent commerce), dumb domestic policies (spending deficits / energy dependence), and more than 2 years into a pandemic without a clear end in sight. With so many huge factors in play, it’s really hard to establish where “normal” levels should be.

A couple of points mentioned today in the financial media that grabbed my attention (I’m not real well versed in macro economics):

The current inflationary situation has been driven from the supply side and the Fed can’t fix that.

It’s going to require a lot of inflation to get the $30T debt back to something manageable.
 
#10,853
#10,853
mrorange211 said:
Try impossible. You just try and do what the market communicates to do. Anyone who takes firm positions in ST market trading will have account after account wiped out. Based on my post history, I'm pretty close most of the time.

This isn't gotcha politics guys. Traders have to change their minds daily based on market conditions and develop a LT strategy based on Macro charts and order flow.
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For those amongst us who aren’t frequent traders and don’t allocate the time for daily research and chart evaluation, it seems like the “buy and hold” model of good companies or funds / etf’s is about the only choice. It’s worked for the last 40 years although as they say - past results don’t guarantee future performance.
 
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#10,854
#10,854
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Markets have been going nuts with any variance from consensus expectations of the data. .
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This is a big part of mystery. For example, yesterday--where did the hive "wisdom" settle on the idea that whether the Fed is raising rates 0.75 in one meeting (as opposed to 0.5 chunks) is key to deciding whether to buy or sell stocks?

Seems like it's based not on what any rational trader would do, but rather what that the rational trader thinks everyone else is going to do. Those are quite different things.
 
#10,857
#10,857
walkenvol said:
For those amongst us who aren’t frequent traders and don’t allocate the time for daily research and chart evaluation, it seems like the “buy and hold” model of good companies or funds / etf’s is about the only choice. It’s worked for the last 40 years although as they say - past results don’t guarantee future performance.
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I think it is, but I personally just like the action too much. I use to really like sports, but I started getting into trading some around 2016 and it hooked me cause it's never off. I have a LT portfolio (Roth) and a ST portfolio for options and trading. I store valuable companies (LMT, COST) but mostly ETFs in the LT (VTI VOO VDE), and trade mostly options in the other. I've definitely paid my tuition, but have slowly improved. There is no substitute for experience when it comes to trading the market. Newbies really don't stand a chance and have to lose money to learn/understand.
 
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#10,858
#10,858
walkenvol said:
For those amongst us who aren’t frequent traders and don’t allocate the time for daily research and chart evaluation, it seems like the “buy and hold” model of good companies or funds / etf’s is about the only choice. It’s worked for the last 40 years although as they say - past results don’t guarantee future performance.
Click to expand...
Yeah, we should probably be buying the trendy etf's and stocks like AARK and Hood.
 
#10,859
#10,859
Velo Vol said:
This is a big part of mystery. For example, yesterday--where did the hive "wisdom" settle on the idea that whether the Fed is raising rates 0.75 in one meeting (as opposed to 0.5 chunks) is key to deciding whether to buy or sell stocks?

Seems like it's based not on what any rational trader would do, but rather what that the rational trader thinks everyone else is going to do. Those are quite different things.
Click to expand...
The answer to that question is "yes."

Markets on a minute-by-minute, day-to-day timeframe are driven by the marginal buyer. The marginal buyer yesterday seemed to take solace in the fact that 75 bp hikes were off the table, or as you suggested thought everybody else would take solace in that, rightly or wrongly. The marginal buyer this morning (doesn't have to be the same people as yesterday) came in, saw prices up 5-6% from Monday's lows, and evidently deemed it a good price at which to sell at.
 
#10,870
#10,870
nVITFzI.jpeg
 
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#10,871
#10,871
I Continue to move from MM to bonds. 3 year cds now at 3.10%. 2 yr @2.95%. Not much difference in 3 year and 5, 7, 10 maturities.
MM has moved from .1% to .45%. Not bad for where we've been.
 
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#10,874
#10,874
Ok, so I ended up with a handful of shares of WBD after the spinoff from T. They've since gone into quite a crater, but I plan on holding onto them given the strength of the Discovery and WB catalogs.

My primary focus in my "Future Me's Beer Money" portfolio is strong/sustainable dividend-bearers, but I can't help hearing one of the voices telling me to pick up some more WBD at such a low point of entry and see where it goes as the new company gets its bearings. It seems like it's seeing some of the streaming panic related to Netflix tanking a bit, plus being (largely) held by T holders who, like me, were generally more concerned with dividends than anything.

Am I crazy?
 
#10,875
#10,875
tbh said:
Ok, so I ended up with a handful of shares of WBD after the spinoff from T. They've since gone into quite a crater, but I plan on holding onto them given the strength of the Discovery and WB catalogs.

My primary focus in my "Future Me's Beer Money" portfolio is strong/sustainable dividend-bearers, but I can't help hearing one of the voices telling me to pick up some more WBD at such a low point of entry and see where it goes as the new company gets its bearings. It seems like it's seeing some of the streaming panic related to Netflix tanking a bit, plus being (largely) held by T holders who, like me, were generally more concerned with dividends than anything.

Am I crazy?
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Question the leadership at WBD. If I wanted a long term streaming play, I'd go with best of breed (Disney or Netflix)
 
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