All things STOCKS

#10,879
#10,879
mrorange211 said:
Not yet
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It is the right time for me. I sold a significant amount of my portfolio (primarily Dow and SP 500) earlier this year when i thought the market was at the upper range of it's value. It's time to start nibbling (below 33k Dow, 4100 SP). I'm hopping for a deeper fall, but don't want to get greedy and miss this correction? all together.
Picking a bottom is impossible so I'll be happy if I can average down
I know of no one who has picked the bottom consistently.
 
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#10,880
#10,880
I understand not timing the market, but there is also a significant downturn coming that will make even a good cost-average basis hard to adjust LT and take your margin. What's a company/index fund that you think is a good buy rn?
 
#10,881
#10,881
Took small bites of ARKG and ARKW on Friday while the shine is off of Cathie Wood. I don’t expect much of a jump while the markets are slumping, but nobody can do anything other than guess at a bottom.

I might make a bigger bet with VTI if the equity averages fall another 5-10%.
 
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#10,883
#10,883
mrorange211 said:
I understand not timing the market, but there is also a significant downturn coming that will make even a good cost-average basis hard to adjust LT and take your margin. What's a company/index fund that you think is a good buy rn?
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I am timing the market, but not trying to get in 100% at the very bottom. Buying Nothing in particular. I added very small amounts of Vanguard mid cap ETF, CVS and JNJ. I also believe the market will continue down. I hope for a panic, and a 20-25% drop. Buying then is hard to do, but you gotta buy when things look terrible.
I'm staying in MM at .44%. I'd like to see the Fed raise interest rate another 1/2 % to get better bond rates.
I'm diversified. Also have land. Have 250 acres raw land. Turned down an offer $25K above asking price today. Just had it surveyed and staked to sell in 30-60 acre tracts. Will relist this week. Hopefully bring 60-80% more.

I'm way past(70 YO) the cost averaging stage of life. It is a good strategy for anyone, and keeps people from blowing their money. You need to start early in life and don't stop. Diversify.
 
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#10,886
#10,886
Go aeiou said:
I am timing the market, but not trying to get in 100% at the very bottom. Buying Nothing in particular. I added very small amounts of Vanguard mid cap ETF, CVS and JNJ. I also believe the market will continue down. I hope for a panic, and a 20-25% drop. Buying then is hard to do, but you gotta buy when things look terrible.
I'm staying in MM at .44%. I'd like to see the Fed raise interest rate another 1/2 % to get better bond rates.
I'm diversified. Also have land. Have 250 acres raw land. Turned down an offer $25K above asking price today. Just had it surveyed and staked to sell in 30-60 acre tracts. Will relist this week. Hopefully bring 60-80% more.

I'm way past(70 YO) the cost averaging stage of life. It is a good strategy for anyone, and keeps people from blowing their money. You need to start early in life and don't stop. Diversify.
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that's awesome man. You've been responsible it seems and it's paying off. Your strategy is definitely different than mine just because of age. I'd just advise caution b/c I think it's possible that SPX gets to 3000 sooner than later.

Go aeiou said:
Do you short stocks?
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\

Not typically but I've increased my short positions quite a bit since around January when I started buying VDE and LMT. Not a lot at first, but I am strictly short rn unless I see a short pump as a possibility (like early last week). There is a massive credit/liquidity fallout in the market now. The event started last week and will only become more pronounced as central banks withdraw over $4 trillion from the markets in the coming months to get control of inflation. Make no mistake, there IS a Fed put in place at this moment.
 
#10,887
#10,887
mrorange211 said:
I’m confused as to why you’ve been a *ick to me the last week?
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I have? Guess it's an example of tone not translating well over the forum.

I was trying to drill down into why you've made your call, because I legitimately don't understand some of this stuff--seems like it's like reading the winds. Sorry if it came across the wrong way.
 
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#10,888
#10,888
Velo Vol said:
I have? Guess it's an example of tone not translating well over the forum.

I was trying to drill down into why you've made your call, because I legitimately don't understand some of this stuff--seems like it's like reading the winds. Sorry if it came across the wrong way.
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It's a liquidity/credit event. The central banks are withdrawing over $4 trillion. Equities will suffer.
 
#10,890
#10,890
Velo Vol said:
Is 2018 a useful comparison to this year?

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An extremely useful comparison, because the reason for the selloff IMO is basically identical. However, the eventual outcome of the 2018 selloff was a snapback rally in early 2019 because the Fed backed off. The last hike was in December 2018 and they had 3 cuts later in 2019. Can the Fed do that this time? Inflation wasn't 7-8% in Q4 2018.
 
#10,891
#10,891
Yes it is and shows you really how the market is going to respond. So much pressure was put on the FED that year (Trump) that they tapered it back and then COVID hit.
 
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#10,894
#10,894
05_never_again said:
An extremely useful comparison, because the reason for the selloff IMO is basically identical. However, the eventual outcome of the 2018 selloff was a snapback rally in early 2019 because the Fed backed off. The last hike was in December 2018 and they had 3 cuts later in 2019. Can the Fed do that this time? Inflation wasn't 7-8% in Q4 2018.
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Another difference--bonds funds didn't get hammered in 2018 like they are right now. No safety but cash.
 
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#10,897
#10,897
The VIX is not ripping higher (approaching 40+) like you think it might for a selloff of this magnitude, which is occurring after we've already seen steep declines for the last few weeks.
 
#10,898
#10,898
05_never_again said:
The VIX is not ripping higher (approaching 40+) like you think it might for a selloff of this magnitude, which is occurring after we've already seen steep declines for the last few weeks.
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Makes me think we are just now getting started with this BUTTTT there will be some face ripping rallies thrown in here on our journey downwards. In my study of bear markets, there are always these crazy rallies that happen in one day (like 1000 points) then it cashed back to reality a couple days later. We may get one of those face ripping rallies this week if CPI comes back not as bad as expected.
 
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