All things STOCKS

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I’m eager to see their Q2 iPhone sales.

Apple Watch 8 and iPhone 14 are 4 or 5 months out. Plus newer versions of Mac Books, iPad, and AirPods are in the pipeline. Q2 revenue misses should create a huge stock buying opportunity ahead of the late Q3 and Q4 product launches.

 

[Velo Vol]

I’m eager to see their Q2 iPhone sales.

It might not be too good, with China's Covid issues. Has that been priced in?

 

[mrorange211]

Apple Watch 8 and iPhone 14 are 4 or 5 months out. Plus newer versions of Mac Books, iPad, and AirPods are in the pipeline. Q2 revenue misses should create a huge stock buying opportunity ahead of the late Q3 and Q4 product launches.

These products are secondary to the APPL stock price. IPhone sales is what pushed the stock value, imo. The switch to 5g has occurred in the last model. There will not be an impetus on the consumer end to upgrade to a newer IPhone because A.) the tech features will be very similiar B.) they can't afford it with inflation. I would not say there is huge stock buying opportunity of a company that produces consumer electronics during a recession/depression but that's just me.

It might not be too good, with China's Covid issues. Has that been priced in?

Imo, no. There are rumors and a little data so far that the IPhone slowdown will be pronounced in the Asian market, but it hasn't been proven yet. The next earnings report will confirm it. I'm not the only one who isn't a believer. On Tuesday, it was revealed that Michael Burry has a $36 million short position in Apple.

 

[Velo Vol]

The VIX, selling volume still doesn't indicate we've seen capitulation.

 

[Velo Vol]

Could be Apple's secret weapon.

 

[05_never_again]

What I don't get it, where is the money going? Not gold. Not real estate. Not btc.

Cash/money market.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Money never goes anywhere. That's a delusion. If you buy stock, you have to pay money from one person to another. The stock doesn't accumulate money. If you buy a bond from the US government, you give them your money and they give it away to rich people and poor people.

It's delusion. Get it out of your system.

QT, now, that's when money goes somewhere. The Fed can make money go somewhere.

 

[GoDucks349]

What I don't get it, where is the money going? Not gold. Not real estate. Not btc.

At this moment, it looks like Tech and Specialty REITs are up a bit. And I emphasis "MOMENT". Check Finviz if you want a quick snapshot of the market sectors.

 

[mrorange211]

At this moment, it looks like Tech and Specialty REITs are up a bit. And I emphasis "MOMENT". Check Finviz if you want a quick snapshot of the market sectors.

 

[Go aeiou]

Target is an up-market Wal-Mart and is super popular with Millennial women. I did not realize how popular it was with that demo until I met my now-wife.

I go in target to pick up drugs at the CVS inside. Occasionally I have a short wait, and I walk around the store to see what I own. There are almost no men in Target. Simply not their target(pun).
When you think about it which retailers target men? Liquor stores, Sporting goods. Not many.

 

[Orange.]

I have some cloud stocks up 8-12% today. Think I might sell them now and try to buy back later. They are volatile af. Spooky.

 

[mrorange211]

I have some cloud stocks up 8-12% today. Think I might sell them now and try to buy back later. They are volatile af. Spooky.

Sell that $hit asap. I'll be a big buyer of SNOW and AMZN once I think we hit bottom or close to it.

 

[GoDucks349]

I go in target to pick up drugs at the CVS inside. Occasionally I have a short wait, and I walk around the store to see what I own. There are almost no men in Target. Simply not their target(pun).
When you think about it which retailers target men? Liquor stores, Sporting goods. Not many.

I was in a TJ Max not long ago and the area for pet toys, beds, food dishes etc. was larger than the men's clothing section. I think the pandemic brought on a bunch of new pet owners and TJ Max is trying to take advantage of the situation.

 

[walkenvol]

Sell that $hit asap. I'll be a big buyer of SNOW and AMZN once I think we hit bottom or close to it.

The $64,000 question is what are you looking for that tells you we’re at the bottom?

 

[mrorange211]

The $64,000 question is what are you looking for that tells you we’re at the bottom?

When the Fed announces end of QT

 

[Go aeiou]

I was in a TJ Max not long ago and the area for pet toys, beds, food dishes etc. was larger than the men's clothing section. I think the pandemic brought on a bunch of new pet owners and TJ Max is trying to take advantage of the situation.

TJ Maxx is a weird store. I don't know if I have every found anything I wanted to buy there. The women's section is about 20 times as large as the men's section.
JC Penny is another one. I had not been in one this century, but visited one about 3 months ago. I only saw one employees. She was at the checkout area. I was looking for Levi's jeans which they claim to carry. The men's section barely exist. No Levi's.

 

[walkenvol]

When the Fed announces end of QT

That’s not looking likely this year from a monetary perspective. If the Fed goes political it might try to prop things up leading into midterm elections.

 

[mrorange211]

That’s not looking likely this year from a monetary perspective. If the Fed goes political it might try to prop things up leading into midterm elections.

Absolutely. I expect Yellen to begin laying the ground work for possible QE in August/Sept. That should lead to a boom into the elections with reality setting back in by Jan 2023.

Also, saw this this AM: "house purchases today likely had the mortgage rate determined up to 90 days ago, meaning there is likely more pain to come" - JPMorgan

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Absolutely. I expect Yellen to begin laying the ground work for possible QE in August/Sept. That should lead to a boom into the elections with reality setting back in by Jan 2023.

Jerome Powell. Yellen is the previous Fed chair. Now she’s Biden’s Secretary of the Treasury.

 

[mrorange211]

Jerome Powell. Yellen is the previous Fed chair. Now she’s Biden’s Secretary of the Treasury.

I know who the Fed chair is........Yellen can still use her powerful voice to create the perception that the admin is doing something to help markets, specifically advocating for QE. That would make the markets trend back up in the Fall in time for elections....maybe. Depends on how tough earnings are and rate of inflation. I still expect Yellen to start making statements about QE starting in August.

 

[Velo Vol]

When the Fed announces end of QT

This won't be for months.

You said there's going to be a big selloff in the next week(s).

 

[mrorange211]

This won't be for months.

You said there's going to be a big selloff in the next week(s).

What exactly do you want from me? Wanna keep a log of everything I say so you can prove to someone, mainly yourself, that I don't know what I'm talking about? The log is my post history. Feel free to quote them in your responses to prove to whoever that I change my mind based on data, or better yet put me on ignore as I suggested a week ago. If you did quote them, however, you would find a post from me on 4/22 telling everyone on this board that a downturn was happening and to go cash or short position.

For the love of God stop buying tech and short the f out of the big names in the short term. We are in for a world of hurt in the next two weeks, imo.

So what's happened since then? Look at the averages yourself. Since that time, the DOW has had it's longest losing streak in 50 years. If you want to engage in politics forum antics (gotcha posts), how about you go to politics forum?

Anyways, they, Fed and Treasury, will at bare minimum begin talking to the press about how QT may be too harsh and raise the prospect for QE again going into the Fall. I expect it to be in August, especially from Yellen as a political calculation. In the meantime, I expect Summer to continue towards the downside with a bounce here and there. In the end, QT will only end once we get to 2023 and the recession really starts to bring the pain. I expect to see mass layoffs beginning in the Fall. Even more reason for Yellen and Powell to release statements teasing the end of QT and beginning of QE in Aug-Nov. People are not adequately understanding the position QE and the Fed has put our economy in for the future. We are in a lose/lose situation with no relief in sight for at least a year.

 

[mrorange211]

Saw this on Twitter a few mins ago:

Email I got from a USA trucking industry VP; "With China shutting down there is little freight coming into the country. No supply. Thus the truckload rates have dropped significantly. Very little work for drivers. Also, add on sky high fuel. So most all signs point to gloom".

 

[Velo Vol]

What exactly do you want from me?

I'm just wondering how you (or anyone) is so confident that in the short-term, with the information known now, the market is going substantially lower.

You talk mostly about the Fed. Plausible enough reason for a market hit. Except hasn't the Fed already said (in broad terms) what it's doing? Slowly reducing the balance sheet, raising rates in 0.25-0.5% increments to the 2.5-3.0% range. Why isn't that variable already priced in?

 

[mrorange211]

I'm just wondering how you (or anyone) is so confident that in the short-term, with the information known now, the market is going substantially lower.

because it's common sense. 13 years of faucets releasing unlimited liquidity into the market and now it's over, and we are only at the beginning. It's not priced in because even now people expect the Fed to step in and save the day. Many of these retail traders have only existed in a market that "goes to the moon". It's why every dip is being bought because there is an assumption it will turn around because Daddy Powell will come in and save the day. That can't happen this time because inflation is too out of control and demand is nowhere near under control. What's fascinating, however, is how fast the layoffs will come, unemployment will soar, demand will fall, and then the massive INFLATION that we are dealing with now becomes a massive DEFALTION problem (Why I'm out of oil). This will become more pronounced as we go from Summer>Fall, hence the reasoning behind press release from Yellen and Powell and QT/QE that I discussed in earlier posts. Quite simply, we r fuqed for at least a year, imo.

Check out what's happening this week. Retail is collapsing and there is no more good news to come. Crypto could very well create the "Oh $hit" moment that was experience in 2007/2008. We are officially 50 points in the SP from a bear market, and they JUST STARTED. My buy signal in the short term will be the massive spike in the VIX over $50. That will tell me panic has set in and there will be a dead cat soon.