All things STOCKS

#11,210
#11,210
Go aeiou said:
Thunder G O

Do you still own BXMT? It closed at $26.14. 9.5% yeild. Any opinion?
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I don’t own BXMT. I own Blackstone Inc, not the commercial mortgage REIT.

I think that if BXMT can be bought for $26 and change it’s not a bad idea. I’m not sure why it would have dropped this much this week. Their portfolio is mostly floating rates, so their profits will actually increase with the higher interest rates. Plus they have high quality clients and their loans have been originating with conservative loan to value ratios - AND the older mortgages have benefited from the rapid growth in the property values. So their loans are really well collateralized if defaults commence.

I suppose that the big drop in the share price is in anticipation of developers having their business fall off significantly and that translating to slower new loan activity for BXMT. I think that their book value might now be greater than their market value.

IMO they’re pretty low risk - the trading range of the share price is pretty narrow. Maybe a better idea than buying 3-3.5% government debt. But I wouldn’t expect share prices to do anything spectacular as long as the current drags on the economy (building materials inflation, fuel, labor challenges, higher interest rates) persist. I’m also a little concerned that their clients build a lot of office space - but they also develop multi-family housing. However I’d have to assume that those developers know what they’re doing and aren’t the types to add to crowded rental markets.
 
#11,211
#11,211
Go aeiou said:
Just common sense should have told you that stock was crazy.

Even worse for Bitcoin (IMO).
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If you believe the unrealized use case of Bitcoin developing as a exchange medium, it's somewhat plausible.

The notion that Americans will undergo a permanent fitness craze is LOLZ.
 
#11,212
#11,212
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don’t own BXMT. I own Blackstone Inc, not the commercial mortgage REIT.

I think that if BXMT can be bought for $26 and change it’s not a bad idea. I’m not sure why it would have dropped this much this week. Their portfolio is mostly floating rates, so their profits will actually increase with the higher interest rates. Plus they have high quality clients and their loans have been originating with conservative loan to value ratios - AND the older mortgages have benefited from the rapid growth in the property values. So their loans are really well collateralized if defaults commence.

I suppose that the big drop in the share price is in anticipation of developers having their business fall off significantly and that translating to slower new loan activity for BXMT. I think that their book value might now be greater than their market value.

IMO they’re pretty low risk - the trading range of the share price is pretty narrow. Maybe a better idea than buying 3-3.5% government debt. But I wouldn’t expect share prices to do anything spectacular as long as the current drags on the economy (building materials inflation, fuel, labor challenges, higher interest rates) persist. I’m also a little concerned that their clients build a lot of office space - but they also develop multi-family housing. However I’d have to assume that those developers know what they’re doing and aren’t the types to add to crowded rental markets.
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My three largest holdings are JNJ, TGT and BX. Owned all for 15-20 years. Sold about 25% of BX in Jan, Feb.
I wonder if some pros have decided that all Real Estate is toxic, and BXMT is thrown into the mix. LOL, I guess that is kinda what you said.
 
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#11,213
#11,213
Go aeiou said:
My three largest holdings are JNJ, TGT and BX. Owned all for 15-20 years. Sold about 25% of BX in Jan, Feb.
I wonder if some pros have decided all that Real Estate is toxic, and BXMT is thrown into the mix. LOL, I guess that is kinda what you said.
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If BX has a strong balance sheet, they will have a lot of opportunities to pick out of the economic carnage. There could be a lot of liquidations and undercapitalized assets to pick off. I still like the private equity and hedge fund names even with the recent loss in value of the shares.

Target might struggle for a while with inventory, supply chain, labor, and e-commerce (AMZN) headwinds. But they do have crazy loyal customers which I don’t get. I guess their shelves and racks are full of stuff that women love.

JNJ has decades of favorable customer demos ahead with boomers aging and spending on healthcare.
 
#11,215
#11,215
I think that you have to be very selective in real estate. Apparently Amazon has overbuilt their distribution infrastructure for the near term. There is still housing demand, but the inputs are getting the worst of the inflation hit while more expensive mortgages have reduced the ability of buyers to afford home ownership. Perhaps there will be a mini-boom in the move up space in a few years as buyers settle for cheaper homes right now.

Industrial / manufacturing / distribution RE would be great segments in the sector if politicians ever get serious about addressing the dependence on foreign production and the vulnerabilities that it creates in our supply chain.
 
#11,216
#11,216
That's an interesting idea; I wonder if there really is enough non-randomness to it to make it actually investible. I work for a manufacturer. I worked a bunch over the years with the "land man". I know what it's like.

I'd have to be like Jimmy Quillen, who famously said "I was a terrible farmer; every time I bought a farm, the government built a road over it."
 
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#11,217
#11,217
I hate 3-day weekends. Perhaps some of this week’s sell off is related to traders wanting to avoid the risk of uncertainty and getting out early instead of waiting to exit on Friday.

It’s a yo-yo market. I’m really torn whether or not to migrate more cash positions to equities.

The rapid recovery in early 2020 has probably influenced many to jump in too fast. The snakes of Wall Street are all over the trend.
 
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#11,218
#11,218
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I hate 3-day weekends. Perhaps some of this week’s sell off is related to traders wanting to avoid the risk of uncertainty and getting out early instead of waiting to exit on Friday.

It’s a yo-yo market. I’m really torn whether or not to migrate more cash positions to equities.

The rapid recovery in early 2020 has probably influenced many to jump in too fast. The snakes of Wall Street are all over the trend.
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Just my opinion, but the 2020 bear was due to fears of Covid and the lock down and the market recovered pretty quickly. This bear is due to run away inflation which will be a slow and painful process to correct. I see 25,000 or less in our future as we’ve got some serious financial problems now. Again, JMO
 
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#11,219
#11,219
walkenvol said:
Just my opinion, but the 2020 bear was due to fears of Covid and the lock down and the market recovered pretty quickly. This bear is due to run away inflation which will be a slow and painful process to correct. I see 25,000 or less in our future as we’ve got some serious financial problems now. Again, JMO
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The markets weren’t reasonable as COVID took off. The early crash was overdone and then it was insanity to not only bounce back - but to push even higher than where equities were before the crash. It should have been a long process for stocks to recover instead of an immediate rally. It was a multi-generational event that should have been a protracted drag on stock prices. It’s crazy. But indexes are overweighted with the performance of the big names. A lot of the travel companies never fully recovered (while work-from-home names appreciated unreasonably).
 
#11,220
#11,220
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The markets weren’t reasonable as COVID took off. The early crash was overdone and then it was insanity to not only bounce back - but to push even higher than where equities were before the crash. It should have been a long process for stocks to recover instead of an immediate rally. It was a multi-generational event that should have been a protracted drag on stock prices. It’s crazy. But indexes are overweighted with the performance of the big names. A lot of the travel companies never fully recovered (while work-from-home names appreciated unreasonably).
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On the Animal Spirits podcast they've made the point that the market seems to move faster these days than it used to (either up or down).
 
#11,222
#11,222
Worth watching. He's generally bearish, though apparently not convicted enough on anything specific to bet a lot on any particular play right now. Kind of in wait and see mode.

 
#11,224
#11,224
Carp said:
I started a new job in April and I've purposely avoided joining their 401k for the moment. Gonna wait it out a few more weeks.
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Are you moving a existing 401k? have those funds in a MM?
Is one plan better than the other? You might leave it in the old plan.
You can also put those funds in a new or existing IRA at a brokerage. i.e. Vanguard, Schwab, etc.
You have several options.
 
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#11,225
#11,225
Carp said:
I started a new job in April and I've purposely avoided joining their 401k for the moment. Gonna wait it out a few more weeks.
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All plans are different but most have options outside of either stock or bond funds. You can always park your 401k contribution there until you things have settled down. If your company matches, even more reason to contribute right off the bat to your 401k, at least up to their match.
 
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