All things STOCKS

#11,551
#11,551
Surprise surprise

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#11,553
#11,553
APPLE is the most overvalued company since MSFT from 2000-2002. It also is weighted more in the S&P than any opther company in 35 years. Recipe for disaster. Germany's inflation data indicates that we are nowhere near the end of this. Markets got ahead of themeselves on low volume and "pivot" nonsense. Sept/Q4 will bring the blood I bet.
 
#11,554
#11,554
mrorange211 said:
APPLE is the most overvalued company since MSFT from 2000-2002. It also is weighted more in the S&P than any opther company in 35 years. Recipe for disaster. Germany's inflation data indicates that we are nowhere near the end of this. Markets got ahead of themeselves on low volume and "pivot" nonsense. Sept/Q4 will bring the blood I bet.
Click to expand...

I love AAPL’s products. I was nothing but Microsoft for decades - starting with PC-DOS and MS-DOS on 8086/8088 machines. The blue screen of death era.

APPL deserves the earnings based premium since the services side has so much upside using the iPhone as the center of their infrastructure. Healthcare is a huge opportunity. Transactions as well. Their devices actually work pretty much seamlessly together. Planned obsolescence pretty much guarantees a constant upgrade cycle of iPhones, iPads, Apple Watches, iMacs/desktops, TVs, and whatever they come up with next. I plan to rent my corner of the cloud from them with an annual iCloud subscription. I think that they’ve only slowed their move into entertainment rather than trending toward exiting. I saw that streaming is now bigger than linear in content delivery. They’ll almost certainly be in the middle of the EV economy.

My biggest concern is the market cap. But I was worried about that as it approached the first trillion. It’s well on its way to a second double since. Large institutions and enormous funds are required to own it and to keep buying shares. A potential disruption to the equilibrium of economics is crypto. Apple will be a participant. Another possible hiccup is whether or not they can follow up Jobs and Tim with back-to-back-to-back home-run CEO hires.

There might be a better entry point in the short term, but I feel that I need to increase my percentage as I’m around 1.25% plus a too difficult to calculate exposure through fund holdings.

I have similar feeling with AMZN and to a lesser extent GOOG and MSFT. After those 4 perhaps Waste Management (WM), BlackRock (BLK), and Walmart/Target/CostCo are best positioned for world domination. Probably LMT and HD as well.
 
#11,555
#11,555
I’m not too concerned with Germany as an indicator. They foolishly hitched their wagon to Russia’s energy pipeline. I think that France is well positioned in that region.
 
#11,556
#11,556
Obviously AAPL’s biggest near term obstacle(s) will be supply chains and China. I don’t even think that regulation is a huge concern with MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG as the potential victims.
 
#11,557
#11,557
Getting back to rolling the dice on options trades - AMAT has given back every bit of the after hours surge that was happening immediately after the Thursday close. I’m still considering selling the 8/19 calls.
 
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#11,558
#11,558
I’m thinking about throwing in the towel on Verizon. I hate to when it’s so close to the 52-week low, but they don’t seem to be able to make smart moves. Plus, last time I set foot in one of their stores it was a complete **** show. They do have a sweet dividend however.

I wonder if they are a strong candidate to free up a spot in the DJIA. Surely AMZN will be added soon.
 
#11,564
#11,564
mrorange211 said:
APPLE is the most overvalued company since MSFT from 2000-2002. It also is weighted more in the S&P than any opther company in 35 years. Recipe for disaster. Germany's inflation data indicates that we are nowhere near the end of this. Markets got ahead of themeselves on low volume and "pivot" nonsense. Sept/Q4 will bring the blood I bet.
Click to expand...
You’ve had some strong insights on here this year, but it’s hard to go against Buffett and BH as they just made another large investment to add to their already large holdings in Apple.
 
#11,567
#11,567
Can you imagine being "that guy" that paid a dollar for an AMAT 112 call yesterday, one day from expiring?
 
#11,568
#11,568
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I just noticed that QQQ has options expiring on Monday (8/22) and Wednesday (8/24) as well as Friday (8/26). How long has this sorcery been going on?
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SPY was 2018 evidently. I did not know that either and I might be wrong. SPY is more popular and of course QQQ is a little more volatile.

Like a lot of people, I have experimented A LOT with selling SPY calls with 1 or 2 days to go. When Spy is going up hard, like it frankly is now, it's not really very good. That is, if you're in a situation where you feel compelled to buy them back, you'll get hurt. You don't have to be in that position, of course. You could consider yourself wheeling it. but wheeling 3 times a week will likely knock you out of the actual underlying gains. I guess it's obvious, but the danger of wheeling it is you cut off the upside.

There are a couple of indexes which track certain covered call strategies, and they may not be your strategy, but with these you can at least evaluate their strategy with no work. There are even ETF's which track this index if you don't want to sell the calls yourself.

I saw an article, can't find it now, by somebody well know like ERN or Mr. Money Mustache dealing with SPY calls and how to target. I think, if you look at price, it tells you exactly what you want to know, and he did too. He was trying to make, I think a half percent a month. Some tiny amount, and he saw that as the target based on experience. Anyway, if you keep track of this, you'll see it's not really all that easy to make "free money" because every once in a while the buy-and-holders will get a big bonanza and you won't.
 
#11,569
#11,569
Firebirdparts said:
Can you imagine being "that guy" that paid a dollar for an AMAT 112 call yesterday, one day from expiring?
Click to expand...

They were probably feeling pretty good a few minutes after the close last night. Ask is $0.01 right now and the bid doesn’t even register.

It makes my head spin. At 3:59 I wasn’t pleased that my sell failed to execute. Then around 4:05 yesterday I was happy that my order failed to hit. Now I’m pissed off again.
 
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#11,570
#11,570
Firebirdparts said:
SPY was 2018 evidently. I did not know that either and I might be wrong. SPY is more popular and of course QQQ is a little more volatile.

Like a lot of people, I have experimented A LOT with selling SPY calls with 1 or 2 days to go. When Spy is going up hard, like it frankly is now, it's not really very good. That is, if you're in a situation where you feel compelled to buy them back, you'll get hurt. You don't have to be in that position, of course. You could consider yourself wheeling it. but wheeling 3 times a week will likely knock you out of the actual underlying gains. I guess it's obvious, but the danger of wheeling it is you cut off the upside.

There are a couple of indexes which track certain covered call strategies, and they may not be your strategy, but with these you can at least evaluate their strategy with no work. There are even ETF's which track this index if you don't want to sell the calls yourself.

I saw an article, can't find it now, by somebody well know like ERN or Mr. Money Mustache dealing with SPY calls and how to target. I think, if you look at price, it tells you exactly what you want to know, and he did too. He was trying to make, I think a half percent a month. Some tiny amount, and he saw that as the target based on experience. Anyway, if you keep track of this, you'll see it's not really all that easy to make "free money" because every once in a while the buy-and-holders will get a big bonanza and you won't.
Click to expand...

Yep. This is why I’m just trading as I see an opportunity rather than considering being an options “trader”. If I have shares that I’d like to sell, instead of placing a limit sell order I’ll sell covered calls. If I feel like buying some shares, instead of setting a limit order to buy, I’ll sell the puts. Prices move against me - I get to keep the free money. Prices move toward my limits and I end up with stock executions at more favorable prices than market at the time that I place the limit orders. I expect that I’ll expand on the strategy as I get more educated. I might even buy calls again if too many put sales triggering move me out of cash.

I’m going to keep it simple for now by shorting the puts and the covered calls. Hopefully earn me some lunch money every week.
 
#11,571
#11,571
I’ve thought about taking a large position in a single name and systematically selling covered calls. But as FBP points out, I’d be limiting the upside moves. I suppose there’s an appropriate counter though to participate when that happens - perhaps buying well out of the money calls.
 
#11,572
#11,572
Thunder Good-Oil said:
They were probably feeling pretty good a few minutes after the close last night. Ask is $0.01 right now and the bid doesn’t even register.

It makes my head spin. At 3:59 I wasn’t pleased that my sell failed to execute. Then around 4:05 yesterday I was happy that my order failed to hit. Now I’m pissed off again.
Click to expand...

Nothing worse than the ER fakeout
 
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