All things STOCKS

Gotcha. TY for the list I'll definetly slowly add them to my portfolio

Things can change quickly and I didn’t read through their financials first, but those are good companies. Debt, earnings, PE ratios, price/sales ratios, dividends, dividend payout ratios, earrings growth, sales growth, etc are just some numbers to consider. 30 years ago Novell was dominating the world. AOL was 25 years ago. But those are all good companies. I own 9 of them and really don’t plan to sell any of them. I might sell puts on the others and could get shares assigned to me and not be bothered.

Those are just stocks that tumbled hard today. There are others that I might be equally, or more, interested in owning. For example HD, LMT, FDX/UPS, MLM, JXN, BRK, and others that didn’t get smacked as hard today.
 
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Things can change quickly and I didn’t read through their financials first, but those are good companies. Debt, earnings, PE ratios, price/sales ratios, dividends, dividend payout ratios, earrings growth, sales growth, etc are just some numbers to consider. 30 years ago Novell was dominating the world. AOL was 25 years ago. But those are all good companies. I own 9 of them and really don’t plan to sell any of them. I might sell puts on the others and could get shares assigned to me and not be bothered.

Those are just stocks that tumbled hard today. There are others that I might be equally, or more, interested in owning. For example HD, LMT, FDX/UPS, MLM, JXN, BRK, and others that didn’t get smacked as hard today.
TY. I will check those out next week. I'll post what I'm in at the moment.
 
I think it depends on if we’re going towards a global deep recession. China/ East Asia and Europe are looking ugly right now.
Is Germany going to have another 2008 because electricity prices are really high? I suppose it's possible, but very much out of the normal economic cycles.
 
Is Germany going to have another 2008 because electricity prices are really high? I suppose it's possible, but very much out of the normal economic cycles.
Not just electricity, many European countries have had much worse fiscal policy than America during the two year covid money printing disaster. Many European countries has negative interest rates while the Federal Reserve was at 0%. And China is lowering interest rates right now instead of the intelligent move that the Fed is doing. Raising interest rates now so that they have ammo to stimulate the economy after this recession hits.
 
No AAPL? How far OTM are you going?

I think that AAPL is just a bit pricey while right at almost 30x. I would consider it a must own company such as AMZN. GOOG is borderline must own. FB might have run its course to an extent (although it could recover its drop). FB seems to be a very shady operation and I expect that the distrust in how they operate will slowly impact their advertising dominance. GOOG and MSFT are kind of joined at the hip and can continue to expand into people’s lives (like AAPL) for several generations. I don’t trust FB - I avoid the options to sign in to things using my FB login. IMO, Zucker is a dangerous man. Bezos is more of a goober.

How far OTM on what? Anything? I’m not sure. Case by case. Further on puts when I’m not as interested in buying certain company’s shares and further if I’m not wanting to let shares go when writing covered calls I guess.

I was assigned MSTR shares but I also wrote another cash reserved put on them. Bitcoin is under $20k - I’m speculating quite a bit. I can hold the shares indefinitely, but I’d prefer to have the investment capital available to keep cycling wheel positions. The premiums for writing covered calls on MSTR looked enormous in the next couple of weeks. I wanted to sell them on Friday but since it’s in a retirement account I assumed that I wasn’t going to be allowed to write a naked call, even though it would only be naked for one day. I plan to write covered calls on MSTR probably one level OTM above the at the money contract, but might wait to see if there’s a bounce first. If MSTR continues to fall I might be sitting on dead money for a while before I can resume writing puts and calls on it.

I also didn’t have much crypto exposure so I’m using that to justify being long MSTR. There is risk however. They have borrowed about a billion to leverage their Bitcoin bet.

Friday was brutal. As extreme as it was I hope that it doesn’t continue for several days. But it is still a long way from the lows reached earlier this year. This could be an extended wait for those of us that lean long. FAZ will be back on my radar if markets feel like more damage is coming. However there might be better bear ETFs to use as financial should benefit from bigger rate hikes like Powell was threatening.
 
How far OTM on what? Anything? I’m not sure. Case by case. Further on puts when I’m not as interested in buying certain company’s shares and further if I’m not wanting to let shares go when writing covered calls I guess.
Right. Too general a question.

I think this chart is a good way to visualize it. Within one standard deviation (selling puts) you're fine with buying the stock/wanting a cheaper price. 1-2 you're not primarily after the stock, but rather a premium. And there's not much money beyond two.

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What are the thoughts on MMM and its ability to weather the recent developments in the earplug lawsuits? I.e. is the general consensus that the dividend is in trouble, or worse?
 
What are the thoughts on MMM and its ability to weather the recent developments in the earplug lawsuits? I.e. is the general consensus that the dividend is in trouble, or worse?

I’ve not read the details, but surely their lawyers and insurance keep any damages from being unreasonably harsh. Earplugs? I mean a cotton ball can be used as an earplug. If you’re wearing earplugs and stuff is still loud, I’d think that it’s reasonable to assume that the noise is too much. Also, it looks like they are opposing a $265 million ruling. The shares fell $7 or $8 billion.

Great, innovative company with exposure to many sectors and industries. Healthcare. Defense. Consumer Staples.

Share price is $130. So if a buyer has cash or buying power to purchase 100 shares ($13,000) and a tier 1 options approval on the brokerage account, they could sell a put option that is slightly out of the money and potentially be assigned shares for a few hundred less plus get paid a couple hundred for selling the option. For example the 9/2/22 125 put last price is $2.60. If assigned, the stock costs $12,500 minus $260. Push the option out one week and the last is $2.90. Options don’t trade in the extended sessions, but MMM shares are up less than $1. The put option will go up in value if the stock price falls.
 
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Right. Too general a question.

I think this chart is a good way to visualize it. Within one standard deviation (selling puts) you're fine with buying the stock/wanting a cheaper price. 1-2 you're not primarily after the stock, but rather a premium. And there's not much money beyond two.

View attachment 484410

Depends on the stock/ETF. MSTR is extremely volatile. Shares fell from $275 to $249.20 on Friday. I sold the 9/2 225 put for over $5 and won’t be surprised if it is assigned. The bid/ask is already $245.57/$248.95. On the other hand, I looked at CSCO and VTI and the options are too cheap to bother with. NVDA also has had nice option premiums.

Number 1 rule if selling puts, use stocks that you want to own.
 
I’ve not read the details, but surely their lawyers and insurance keep any damages from being unreasonably harsh. Earplugs? I mean a cotton ball can be used as an earplug. If you’re wearing earplugs and stuff is still loud, I’d think that it’s reasonable to assume that the noise is too much. Also, it looks like they are opposing a $265 million ruling. The shares fell $7 or $8 billion.

Great, innovative company with exposure to many sectors and industries. Healthcare. Defense. Consumer Staples.

Share price is $130. So if a buyer has cash or buying power to purchase 100 shares ($13,000) and a tier 1 options approval on the brokerage account, they could sell a put option that is slightly out of the money and potentially be assigned shares for a few hundred less plus get paid a couple hundred for selling the option. For example the 9/2/22 125 put last price is $2.60. If assigned, the stock costs $12,500 minus $260. Push the option out one week and the last is $2.90. Options don’t trade in the extended sessions, but MMM shares are up less than $1. The put option will go up in value if the stock price falls.

Options aside (that's way outside of my bailiwick at the moment from a knowledge of how it works, etc), my understanding is that there are quite a few individual lawsuits regarding the earplugs across the US, so this has the potential to drag on for quite a while (which could be a good thing, in terms of payouts over time instead of one big hit). I'm leaning on holding long and keeping the dividends coming, but I've been reading some more negative outlooks that raised the question in my mind. Thanks, and one day I'll get this whole puts thing down, haha.
 
Options aside (that's way outside of my bailiwick at the moment from a knowledge of how it works, etc), my understanding is that there are quite a few individual lawsuits regarding the earplugs across the US, so this has the potential to drag on for quite a while (which could be a good thing, in terms of payouts over time instead of one big hit). I'm leaning on holding long and keeping the dividends coming, but I've been reading some more negative outlooks that raised the question in my mind. Thanks, and one day I'll get this whole puts thing down, haha.

Options are intimidating, but the basics aren’t really that complicated once you get comfortable with them. They are contracts for 100 shares each but are priced for a single share. It’s weird, but you just multiply the option price by 100.

When you buy stocks, it’s not a bad idea to place a limit order (instead of a market order) to only execute the trade once the share price comes down to what you want to buy it at. The same thing can be accomplished (if round lots of 100, 200, 300, 400, etc shares are being purchased) by selling one put for every 100 shares. The put option is priced for one share and needs to be multiplied by 100x for the cost of the put contract. Simply sell the put with a strike lower than the current price of the shares. The further out the expiration date, the more money you get for selling the put. The biggest caveat is that there needs to be cash in the account to cover the purchase price of the shares. Another issue is that if the price of the stock goes up then the share purchase will not happen. But that is also the case if entering a limit order to buy the shares at a lower price.

I am actually considering doing the following. I will see how the markets open tomorrow morning.

Instead of buying 100 shares of MMM for $129.10 - I might sell the 9/2/22 125 put option (last trade was for $2.60 (times 100 so I’d receive $260). Then if MMM stock falls below $125 I will be purchasing the 100 MMM shares for $125/share. If MMM stock stays above $125 all week I won’t be assigned MMM shares BUT I will pocket the $260 as the put option will expire worthless (I sold the option - worthless is good).

The MMM 9/9/22 125 put is (was at the Friday close) $2.90. $2.68-$3.90 (bid/ask). $2.90 was the LAST trade.

The MMM 9/16/22 125 put is $3.50-$3.75.

The MMM 9/23/22 125 put is $3.50-$5.15.

As far as the dividend, they pay $5.96/year. The earnings per share was $7.16. So as long as their earnings don’t have a sustained drop they are earning enough profit to cover and preserve the 4.62% dividend.

Who knows what happens with the litigation? Unless MMM was extremely negligent I wouldn’t think the earplugs suit will destroy the company. They would have been required to already have a reserve for any probable losses (unless the litigation has just occurred). The likely outcome should already be reflected on their financial statements. That’s what the outside CPAs that they hire to audit their books would require - otherwise the CPA firm could face litigation.

MMM does carry a fair amount of debt. Almost $17 billion. The market cap for the company is $73.5 billion. The Trefis estimated valuation for MMM is $85 billion. P/E ratio is 18x.
 
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I don't get this. Would you ever say the market won't rally because there's too many bulls?

100%. Market sentiment has a huge impact on which way the market actually goes and its almost ALWAYS the inverse of what everyone thinks. Plus, bears are short so once we see any movement upwards there is always short covering to the max. Same thing happens whenever there are lots of bulls. They cover short when it goes lower. There's too many bears rn for this to srsly correct because the big boys will just short cover providing an explosion up. That's what happened from middle of July until the AH last week.
 
100%. Market sentiment has a huge impact on which way the market actually goes and its almost ALWAYS the inverse of what everyone thinks. Plus, bears are short so once we see any movement upwards there is always short covering to the max. Same thing happens whenever there are lots of bulls. They cover short when it goes lower. There's too many bears rn for this to srsly correct because the big boys will just short cover providing an explosion up. That's what happened from middle of July until the AH last week.
This would make sense if you were saying we're near/at the bottom. But you're saying there's a lot more downside.

What, other than new news, would make sentiment more negative than it already is?
 
Well, with losing control of CF I'm out of margin debt, at least, and CF is now in plummet mode below where I sold it. I sold a MU 56 Call for September 2 where I meant to sell a Put. You just have to laugh at yourself sometimes. Just noticed right now, thank goodness. Made $30 on it.
 
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If the market is 3-6 months forward looking, then what is it pricing in right now (at roughly 4,000) for the economy in Q1 2023? What interest rate and GDP?
 

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