All things STOCKS

#11,801
#11,801
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I guess the SMRs are still quite large. Just smaller than the full scale projects that were being mothballed all over in the 1980s and 1990s. Three Mile Island and Chernobyl kind of sped up the demise. Fukushima in 2011 probably derailed a return to nuclear.

Clinch River / Oak Ridge is a good place to reboot the industry. The NIMBY folks there would be an extreme minority. But outsiders will attack it.
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Granted this is just an editorial, but it seems germane to the conversation re: a resurgence of nuclear power (and obstacles to it).

Climate-Change Fight Dies (Again) in Zaporizhzhia
 
#11,803
#11,803
It’s hard to believe what has happened to so many iconic retailers. Sears. K-mart. Circuit City. JCP. Woolworth. Now this BBBY CFO jumps (or falls). Makes you wonder if Best Buy (BBY) will be a survivor in the long run. They’ve held up nicely despite Walmart and Amazon. I was doing well being long Guitar Center until private equity stole it from me in 2007. ODP is another. I haven’t set foot in one for about 2 years and it was dead. Staples was a little busier, but I haven’t been there since pre-COVID.

I used to love retail stocks. It was easy to be like Peter Lynch and check out the store parking lots. It’s amazing how Amazon has changed the world. Home Depot is still a huge bet for me. I hope that Amazon doesn’t figure out how to deliver lots of mulch, lumber, concrete mix, kitchens and baths, and appliances. However I did see advertising for Amazon selling small houses/she sheds today. I have a little Floor and Decor - they seem to have done well as a Home Depot parasite. But they’ve given a lot back since their 2021 surge. Still profitable though.

I guess Ulta has been a good stock. Still growing. Busy stores. Not far off of the 52 WH. P/E below 20x. Weekly options. Not a bad put to sell except the $400+ share price equates to $40,000+ of capital needing to be reserved.
 
#11,806
#11,806
I don't know what the real outcome will be, but at the rate the Fed is going, they're going to need 5 years just to make a dent in liquidity, and 20 years to get back to "normal". I'm sure they are thinking about going faster when they feel like they can. I expect politics at some point will take a hand in it, one way or the other. I have no forecast.
 
#11,808
#11,808
mrorange211 said:
8.35 at close.
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I was going to sell MSTR calls this morning. After the shares (and call options) popped at the open I thought I’d give it some time to go up some more. Then it reversed. Opened at $218. Rose to $220. Fell below $203 before closing at $204.25. I wanted to sell the 9/9 but this haircut probably makes it 9/16 as the nearest expiration that will do well.

I’m still looking to sell some puts. I want to write UPS, but they didn’t mirror FDX’s drop. AMZN is still a possibility. I added Fiserv and the biotechs to what I’m watching. MMM keeps getting more attractive. BBBY falling almost 20% is tempting, but that might just be an acceleration of what is happening with them. I’m not confident that it will recover.
 
#11,809
#11,809
I won't have guessed Twitter would be atop this list.

Then again, its earnings have underperformed for so long that I guess there's not as much downside P/E risk.

 
#11,810
#11,810
Firebirdparts said:
I don't know what the real outcome will be, but at the rate the Fed is going, they're going to need 5 years just to make a dent in liquidity, and 20 years to get back to "normal". I'm sure they are thinking about going faster when they feel like they can. I expect politics at some point will take a hand in it, one way or the other. I have no forecast.
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It can't be this simple, can it? Look at the correlation since June '21.

1662517195245.png
 
#11,814
#11,814
I should be selling calls on MSTR to complete the wheel strategy, but it could easily be up 25% a week. I’m waiting a bit to see if Bitcoin can push into the mid 20s first.
 
#11,815
#11,815
MSTR was up 7% on Wednesday. $218.61 close. After hours bid/ask: $215.00/$221.00

1 day
MSTR 220909 C 225 is 4.00/4.90

8 days
MSTR 220916 C 225 is 10.20/11.80
MSTR 220916 C 230 is 8.70/9.70

15 days
MSTR 220923 C 225 is 14.90/16.50
MSTR 220923 C 230 is 12.90/14.50
MSTR 220923 C 235 is 10.90/12.90

22 days
MSTR 220930 C 235 is 14.30/16.50. <<<—-

29 days
MSTR 221007 C 235 is 16.90/19.70

$235 - $218.61 = $16.39 (plus the ^^^ premium)

About $3,000/contract by “risking” giving up less than $22k of stock for 3 weeks. 13.6% in 22 days? Could also buy a protective put for about half of that.

This **** is cray cray.
 
#11,817
#11,817
Velo Vol said:
Hmm.

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conceited.gif
 
#11,818
#11,818
Thunder Good-Oil said:
MSTR was up 7% on Wednesday. $218.61 close. After hours bid/ask: $215.00/$221.00

1 day
MSTR 220909 C 225 is 4.00/4.90

8 days
MSTR 220916 C 225 is 10.20/11.80
MSTR 220916 C 230 is 8.70/9.70

15 days
MSTR 220923 C 225 is 14.90/16.50
MSTR 220923 C 230 is 12.90/14.50
MSTR 220923 C 235 is 10.90/12.90

22 days
MSTR 220930 C 235 is 14.30/16.50. <<<—-

29 days
MSTR 221007 C 235 is 16.90/19.70

$235 - $218.61 = $16.39 (plus the ^^^ premium)

About $3,000/contract by “risking” giving up less than $22k of stock for 3 weeks. 13.6% in 22 days? Could also buy a protective put for about half of that.

This **** is cray cray.
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Ended up selling MSTR 220916 C 252.5 for $5.50. MSTR is up $16 today ($234.50 close). Good chance shares are called away next week, but I don’t care. That’s about $3,400/contract capital gain since yesterday’s close. Plus the $550 premium. I’m not real comfortable holding MicroStrategy, but it’s a good leveraged bet on Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been hanging around just under $20k. MSTR could go up $75-$100/week. It also crashes really fast - but that results in big option premiums.

URI 220909 P 277.5 should expire OTM tomorrow ($304.93 URI close). That will free up investment capital. I really like the 1-2 week options ATM.

NFLX looks like another name with favorable time decay in the short term time frame. I need to grab a few shares to have a round lot to sell the options.
 
#11,819
#11,819
In the last month I’ve traded MSTR, NVDA, AMAT, ISRG, and URI contracts.

8x sold PUTS to open
- 2x expired (including 1x 9/9 far OTM)
- 3x bought to close (87%, 91%, 98%)
- 3x assigned

5x sold CALLS to open
- 2x expired
- 2x bought to close (54%, 75%)
- 0x assigned
- 1x open through 9/16

Plus one mistake - sold a PUT to open, but meant to buy. Bought it later that day. Then took a month off for being a dumb ass.

1 of the 3 assigned positions has an unrealized gain and is the long open call. Waiting for higher stock prices on the other 2 rather than writing profitable covered calls about a month out. I like keeping the expirations within 2 weeks, but the premiums can be too small to bother with.

It gets confusing. Thankfully you must chose whether to open or close each order to buy or sell contracts. I’ve attempted to enter a couple of buy orders to close that were rejected because the shorted contracts weren’t in my account.

I don’t like that 3 of 8 PUT positions have been assigned (at expiration), but they were placed with close expirations and therefore close to ITM/ATM to get decent premiums. Maybe I should push the expirations out a few more weeks, but I don’t like having the cash reserved for much longer than 1-2 weeks. I think I need to go 2-4 weeks out to the expirations or take really small premiums. However, 1% in less than 2 weeks isn’t horrible.

I’ve thought about grabbing a bunch of naked way, way OTMs but it would be a lot of work and has the possibility of blowing up. Probably a never mind.

I’m not going to mess with vertical spreads, straddles, or strangles for now. I’m not rolling contracts either.
 
#11,821
#11,821
Velo Vol said:
You say its price now mostly moves with Bitcoin? Why not until 2021?

View attachment 488021
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No, it’s moving like leveraged Bitcoin. Close to 2x (up and down). I think that with Bitcoin falling from what, $80k to under $20k (?), the stock has been under pressure. They’ve borrowed about a billion and iirc their Bitcoin position is around $2.5 billion. The software has a high margin but sales are only about a half billion. It is very much a Bitcoin play - and with their debt load it has the risk of bankruptcy if Bitcoin falls too much. So it will fall faster than the crypto and will accelerate as it gets deeper into the weeds. With the opposite, increases in Bitcoin moves it further from a possible bankruptcy. It could easily double or triple quickly. I don’t think that the software side has enough scale to service the debt if Bitcoin falls another 50-75% or more. I guess it is possible if they don’t take on a lot more margin.
 
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#11,822
#11,822
Bitcoin is up over $1,000 right now ($20,543). The MSTR 220916 C 252.5 that I sold ($5.50) today (Thursday) was $18 out of the money at the close ($234.50). If Bitcoin holds on it might be in the money before the Friday close (not what I want as the seller of the put contract). I hope that I get assigned and my shares are called away early. It doesn’t seem likely that the contracts will be able to close OTM at the 9/16 expiration. MSTR is crazy levels of volatile. But I’m long the stock, so it’s all good.
 
#11,823
#11,823
Cheddar Flow showed all options at 94% bearish Sept 2 and here we are over 4k headed to 4200 next week. Too many bears. We are not near capitulation yet.
 
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