All things STOCKS

#12,279
#12,279
Indeed it has. How fortunate we are, that calculations on the intrinsic value of these things is so easily done.
 
#12,283
#12,283
Boy, I do. It's done that twice during my investing life, for basically random reasons, and I was fully invested both times. I don't suppose there's a rule it has to stop there, but for my lifetime it's certainly turned out to be the benchmark.
 
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#12,284
#12,284
Firebirdparts said:
Boy, I do. It's done that twice during my investing life, for basically random reasons, and I was fully invested both times. I don't suppose there's a rule it has to stop there, but for my lifetime it's certainly turned out to be the benchmark.
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My next buy point is ~30%. Haven't sold anything and saving up $$ just in case. In it for long term so don't care either way.
 
#12,285
#12,285
Interesting time for Ford. Wait it out and see how far it falls and load up in 2023 for a run in 2024? Or is Ford going to be too far down to recover?
 
#12,286
#12,286
I would say Ford earnings are what matter, and they'll be talking about that over the next 2 weeks. Right now, Ford earns about $2 a share and the analysts who follow this think it's likely to stay at about that level in 2023. RBC has cast doubt on this whole view. But these are strange times, obviously, and growth is excluded from that picture whether or not there's a recession.

I'm not sure what restricting the available cars and keeping prices up does long-term. It's very different from what they've traditionally done. If they could stay stable, where they are, then the stock kinda needs to trade at $20. But I don't know that they can stay there long term. Short term, the market will react maniacally to things like the difference between $1.75 and $2.25, but that's stupid. The stock is trading at a PE of about 5, depending on what you believe about the E, and when the market opens, heck, it might be 4. Long term, the stock market is a weighing machine.

I did note about a year and a half ago when they publicly said something kinda positive about the effects of not building vehicles. I don't blame them. Selling more vehicles may not work all that well for them. But in any case, if I had to guess, I would guess their earnings are high NOW not in 2024. Just my guess.

The company is making a fortune now, printing money, so the whole "too far down to recover" is a long way off. They are deep in debt as we all know. Where they are today, they've been paying that off enthusiastically. But I don't know if they can stay where they are.
 
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#12,290
#12,290
mrorange211 said:
Everyone thinks the market just goes up forever. Yea, it does when you do QE for over a decade.
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I am honestly surprised at how orderly this decline has been given the aggressiveness of the rate increases. I thought that the pace of the decline once the market figured out QE and ZIRP was over would be much faster.

It's been a bad year for stocks, down 25%, but it doesn't even approach the drawdowns from other bear markets (yet) and it has taken 9.5 months to get here. I still would like to see a panicky, waterfall-type decline where the market falls 10-15% in a matter of days to put some longer-term cash to work.
 
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#12,292
#12,292
This thread is starting to sound like the bottom is in. Plus, there are multiple threads on bogleheads about how the idea that the market "generally goes up" is false. CNN Fear/Greed Index is at "Extreme Fear".

Act accordingly.
 
#12,293
#12,293
Velo Vol said:
I hope you did. Ouch.
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I used that bucket to sell LABU 6.50 puts.

I’m holding tight (short) with BX 221028 C 100, FDX 221021 C 167.5, and ISRG 221028 P 180. I tried to sell MSTR 255 calls yesterday but the market turned down just before it reached my limit to execute. I wanted the 10/21 expiration but I’ll go after 10/28 if the underlying goes up 5-10%.

Edit: actually the MSTR earnings are expected on 10/27 so I’m avoiding the 10/28 puts. But I could sell in the next day or 2 and buy to close by the 26th if it has a gain.
 
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#12,294
#12,294
Firebirdparts said:
This thread is starting to sound like the bottom is in. Plus, there are multiple threads on bogleheads about how the idea that the market "generally goes up" is false. CNN Fear/Greed Index is at "Extreme Fear".

Act accordingly.
Click to expand...

I remember the NASDAQ taking about a decade to reach new highs after the dot com bubble burst. Actually 15 years. 2000 high was 5,048.62. It wasn’t higher until 2015 (5,218.86).

Really there just needs to be more energy production to bring down inflation plus more jobs eliminated to get worker productivity moving up and payrolls normalized.
 
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#12,295
#12,295
Firebirdparts said:
I would say Ford earnings are what matter, and they'll be talking about that over the next 2 weeks. Right now, Ford earns about $2 a share and the analysts who follow this think it's likely to stay at about that level in 2023. RBC has cast doubt on this whole view. But these are strange times, obviously, and growth is excluded from that picture whether or not there's a recession.

I'm not sure what restricting the available cars and keeping prices up does long-term. It's very different from what they've traditionally done. If they could stay stable, where they are, then the stock kinda needs to trade at $20. But I don't know that they can stay there long term. Short term, the market will react maniacally to things like the difference between $1.75 and $2.25, but that's stupid. The stock is trading at a PE of about 5, depending on what you believe about the E, and when the market opens, heck, it might be 4. Long term, the stock market is a weighing machine.

I did note about a year and a half ago when they publicly said something kinda positive about the effects of not building vehicles. I don't blame them. Selling more vehicles may not work all that well for them. But in any case, if I had to guess, I would guess their earnings are high NOW not in 2024. Just my guess.

The company is making a fortune now, printing money, so the whole "too far down to recover" is a long way off. They are deep in debt as we all know. Where they are today, they've been paying that off enthusiastically. But I don't know if they can stay where they are.
Click to expand...
I'm like you in that the stock needs to be around the $20 range. That was my guess to load up now with the anticipation of it trending that way in the next 1-2 years.
 
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