All things STOCKS

#12,307
#12,307
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The bottom will fall out by close.
 
#12,311
#12,311
Buying opportunity canceled. Almost pulled the trigger, but thought to myself "Tomorrow is Friday". At least right now the train has left the station. Who knows, I might be able to catch a later train.
 
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#12,317
#12,317
I think it is just one of those unpredictable things where the selling just exhausted itself, leaving nobody but dip buyers and short coverers. We hit a moment where everybody who got scared and wanted to sell over the last few weeks had sold, so there's really nowhere to go but up. You get these inexplicable rallies out of nowhere lots of times in bear markets, particularly during periods where the market gets really stretched to the downside.
 
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#12,318
#12,318
05_never_again said:
I think it is just one of those unpredictable things where the selling just exhausted itself, leaving nobody but dip buyers and short coverers. We hit a moment where everybody who got scared and wanted to sell over the last few weeks had sold, so there's really nowhere to go but up. You get these inexplicable rallies out of nowhere lots of times in bear markets, particularly during periods where the market gets really stretched to the downside.
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IIRC, your leaning towards a lot more of a drop before it’s over. Anything changed your mind yet?
 
#12,319
#12,319
walkenvol said:
IIRC, your leaning towards a lot more of a drop before it’s over. Anything changed your mind yet?
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Not really - it seems like most longer-term bottoms get put in when there is a panic moment. Huge volume, VIX spike, sentiment is despondent, etc. This decline, however steep it might be, hasn't displayed any of that. It is remarkable how orderly and controlled it has been.
 
#12,320
#12,320
This is just a proposal - what if there's no reason for VIX to react to a series of expected rate hikes. The stocks have to be repriced based on the cost of money. It's just dull math, and there's very little uncertainty.
 
#12,321
#12,321
Firebirdparts said:
This is just a proposal - what if there's no reason for VIX to react to a series of expected rate hikes. The stocks have to be repriced based on the cost of money. It's just dull math, and there's very little uncertainty.
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Everybody knows that stocks (and all assets) have to be repriced due to a series of rate hikes. However, there is considerable debate/uncertainty about 1) exactly how high rates have to go and 2) what might "break" during this campaign of rate increases, and 3) what is that breaking point?

Also, in the case of equities, rates are just one variable of the repricing. The other is earnings. Rates are headed higher; that part is clear. To what extent to higher rates impact the economic environment and corporate earnings? A little? A lot? Exactly how high are rates going, and what amount of corporate earnings are you discounting at that rate? All uncertain.
 
#12,324
#12,324
05_never_again said:
Everybody knows that stocks (and all assets) have to be repriced due to a series of rate hikes. However, there is considerable debate/uncertainty about 1) exactly how high rates have to go and 2) what might "break" during this campaign of rate increases, and 3) what is that breaking point?
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Yep, there's a lot of uncertainty. Things post-Covid were already wacky, and now we have one of the fastest interest rate increases in modern times. The economy could break, the bond market could break, something overseas could break.
 
#12,325
#12,325
Velo Vol said:
Yep, there's a lot of uncertainty. Things post-Covid were already wacky, and now we have one of the fastest interest rate increases in modern times. The economy could break, the bond market could break, something overseas could break.
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It’s not really post-COVID. I think that that is one of the market concerns. It will be here for years and a new variant could surface at any time and disrupt the **** out of everything again. Plus - other pandemics could (and probably will) come around. Figuring out how to be productive with it always lurking is a challenge. We may never get back to the same level of pre-COVID productivity.
 
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