All things STOCKS

#12,451
#12,451
VolAllen said:
Interestingly, Carnival still has a gap wayyyy up at $41 to $39 from the beginning of the Covid crash, but more realistically and shorter term, it has one at $10.40. Unfortunately it also gapped UP the other day and now has one down below in the 7.40’s, so I may honestly buy out of the contracts and sell my shares on Friday and see which direction things go. I’d hate to leave this $10k on the table if I could sell now and buy my shares right back at 7.40 in a couple if weeks…
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I would assume that CCL had to take on a lot of debt and/or dilute their equity to have enough cash to weather the COVID shut down. Much more than 2 doubles will take many years IMO. The next double seems like a no-brainer if the economy doesn’t crash.
 
#12,455
#12,455
And on the same Elon Musk trail here…..can anyone explain to me what’s up with Twitters options?! Because I feel like I just found gold…

Check 12/16 $55 Calls. An IV of 8% AND they’re only .03?!? This seems like a bargain, no?
 
#12,456
#12,456
VolAllen said:
And on the same Elon Musk trail here…..can anyone explain to me what’s up with Twitters options?! Because I feel like I just found gold…

Check 12/16 $55 Calls. An IV of 8% AND they’re only .03?!? This seems like a bargain, no?
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The purchase price is 54.20 and he's going to take it private. Shouldn't get above $54.20...
 
#12,458
#12,458
VolAllen said:
Seems strange to not be able to trade Twitter anymore lol. Why would he want it to be private vs owning something that could potentially go up in value?
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Probably where he dont wanna deal with the SEC crap. He can always take it public again in the future if he wants...

I think he knows he overpaid as well so if he kept the stock trading, it'd prolly fall pretty quickly back to 30s after deal is executed.

He ain't that rich by being stupid...
 
#12,459
#12,459
BigOrangeMojo said:
Probably where he dont wanna deal with the SEC crap. He can always take it public again in the future if he wants...

I think he knows he overpaid as well so if he kept the stock trading, it'd prolly fall pretty quickly back to 30s after deal is executed.

He ain't that rich by being stupid...
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Ok, but he paid 54.20 per share for the company. He now owns Twitter. Say it goes back down to $30…..so? You’ve already bought it. You can’t return it. Now, say it goes to $100. Well now 54.20 doesn’t seem so bad!
 
#12,460
#12,460
VolAllen said:
Ok, but he paid 54.20 per share for the company. He now owns Twitter. Say it goes back down to $30…..so? You’ve already bought it. You can’t return it. Now, say it goes to $100. Well now 54.20 doesn’t seem so bad!
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Right now, tech stock valuations are really depressed. Assuming economy turns around and he fixes the issues at TWTR, he can take public again in a few years if he wants. That may be at $100, $150.
 
#12,461
#12,461
IPOs have about slowed down to nothing. He overpaid a bit by not addressing the fake accounts BEFORE he was obligated to make the deal. He decided instead of wasting the time and money to litigate he’d just go through with it. The value of the publicity that he generated by mixing it up with Twitter offsets a substantial amount of the high price he’s paying. Now he’ll duke it out with Zuckerberg. I’d bet on Elon to win that battle.

Having private businesses is nothing unusual for Musk. SpaceX/Starlink, Neuralink, and the Boring Company are private. Zip2 and X.com/PayPal were private. Tesla and SolarCity were private. He sold many of those for 9 figure and he’s worth over $200 billion. He doesn’t need to be public to raise capital. He’d take his private companies public as an exit strategy if he doesn’t just sell out to another company. He could be looking for a buyer like MicroSoft or Google to unload a reconfigured Twitter - but he might prefer to keep it as an outlet to control his message.

Also, he’s been attacked by the SEC. He might not want the hassle of being publicly traded.

SAVE is a pending merger/buyout with JetBlue that has weekly options that could be profitable as the current share price of just under $22 creeps up to the buyout of $31 over the next 12-18 months. All cash, so the fluctuations in the share price of JBLU isn’t relevant. JetBlue has hired a very successful M&A law firm to guide them through the process and to fend off interference from the government. Plus JBLU is on the hook for substantial fees to Spirit AND Spirit shareholders if the acquisition falls apart.
 
#12,462
#12,462
Now that the $2.50/share upfront payment has been made by JetBlue to SAVE shareholders, the actual SAVE volatility could drop before the implied volatility resets.
 

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#12,463
#12,463
Morgan Stanley:

Has Fed Policy Had Its Intended Effect Yet?
A key question for investors considering recent earnings results and the future outlook is whether or not Fed policy has already slowed consumer demand and inflation has peaked.

Recent data including the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow figures suggest it hasn’t, instead painting a picture of a strong consumer and room for companies to keep prices higher. For example, while weakness is apparent in goods manufacturing, consumer spending seems to be holding up well in services, and GDP forecasts have edged higher in recent weeks. Also, many companies are still talking about being able to raise prices to bolster revenues, underscoring the persistence of inflation and undercutting the idea that the Fed has made significant progress in taming it.

However, we believe this interpretation of the data offers a confusing message about the outlook for companies’ future profitability. The current level of inflation cannot continue indefinitely, given the central bank’s resolve around lowering inflation and what we see as a temporary extreme in consumption patterns that has helped drive prices higher but will eventually normalize.
 
#12,464
#12,464
Morgan Stanley:

Implications for Investors
All told, 2023 earnings estimates have barely budged, and investors’ positive outlooks are still not reflecting the likely ultimate reset. Meanwhile, our conviction that a profits recession is coming has only strengthened in the last few weeks. We fear that this grinding rollercoaster ride in equity markets may simply take longer to reach a buyable bottom.

Investors should consider avoiding the temptation to chase bear-market rallies premised solely on macro factors. Remember that earnings achievability matters and focus on sustainable fundamentals. We see opportunities for stock selection in healthcare, financials, energy, industrials and defense.
 
#12,465
#12,465
Morgan Stanley:

1. Democrats Retain Both the House and the Senate
In the unlikely event that Democrats retain control of both legislative chambers, they would likely continue to pursue President Biden’s policy priorities from the last session. These include additional fiscal stimulus for expanded access to healthcare and housing aid, as well as increased support for lower-income families and children. These spending priorities could lead to revived tax proposals aimed at high earners, who narrowly avoided increases to individual income taxes, capital gains taxes and other wealth-related taxes earlier this year.

In addition, we would expect Democrats to intensify regulatory scrutiny of the financial and technology industries, likely increasing businesses’ compliance costs and weighing on their stocks in the near term. That said, our analysis of past regulatory trends shows such headwinds tend to dissipate within a couple years, with equities in affected sectors rallying back to outperform the broader market.

2. Republicans Win One or Both Houses of Congress
On the other hand, if Republicans win one or both chambers, investors may want to brace for more gridlock—whether between a GOP-controlled legislative branch and a Democratic White House or within a split Congress. Such divided-government scenarios could make it harder to implement major spending initiatives or policy changes over the next two years.

However, even in a more divided government, there could be room for bipartisan cooperation on a number of key policy priorities, with the potential to create new opportunities and risks for investors over the next two years or more. We suggest watching these areas, in particular:
  • Increased defense spending: As war in Europe continues, look for bipartisan agreement on potential hikes in federal military spending, as the U.S. seeks to catch up with foreign adversaries. From 2000 to 2020, China boosted annual defense spending by 513%, while U.S. spending rose just 64%, spurring the Biden administration to cite Chinese military growth as a new benchmark for future U.S. military spending. Watch the performance of U.S. aerospace and defense stocks, which have a strong positive correlation with U.S. defense outlays.
  • Robust cybersecurity investment: A dramatic ramp-up in cybersecurity threats from abroad, including China, Russia and North Korea, is heightening U.S. government vigilance. Morgan Stanley expects federal spending on cybersecurity to increase over time as cyber-related threats mount, creating a bullish environment for cybersecurity stock valuations.
  • Supply-chain “reshoring”: Concerns about inflation-fueling supply disruptions are adding momentum to a broader trend of returning, or “reshoring,” manufacturing to the United States. Federal efforts to strengthen domestic production, such as investments in the U.S. semiconductor industry, are expected to grow. In 2022 and 2023 alone, Morgan Stanley researchers expect capital investment in U.S. factories to increase 7.5%. U.S. semiconductor companies, in particular, could benefit from federal legislation that would incentivize more manufacturing at home.
 
#12,466
#12,466
Musk is challenging the Democratic machine and they are coming after him. They already announced an investigation of Tesla self-driving and there's some buzz they are gonna do something about Twitter. Funny how that works, huh?
 
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#12,467
#12,467
mrorange211 said:
Musk is challenging the Democratic machine and they are coming after him. They already announced an investigation of Tesla self-driving and there's some buzz they are gonna do something about Twitter. Funny how that works, huh?
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I believe I was promised on here that the stock market performs better when Dems are in charge 😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫
 
#12,468
#12,468
VolAllen said:
I believe I was promised on here that the stock market performs better when Dems are in charge 😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫
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banking/financial and pharmaceutical/biotech typically are good investments when the left has power. Gas companies are the table right now as a guest.
 
#12,469
#12,469
BigOrangeMojo said:
Right now, tech stock valuations are really depressed. Assuming economy turns around and he fixes the issues at TWTR, he can take public again in a few years if he wants. That may be at $100, $150.
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Did TikTok bring down Google (Youtube) and Meta down singlehanded?
 
#12,473
#12,473
BigOrangeMojo said:
Google is still a great company. Meta is headed the way of AOL unless someone convinces Zuck to back off the metaverse idea....
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I'm big on google right now, buying the lows knowing it'll rebound. I don't trust Zuckerberg now, would have loved to have gotten on the IPO of Meta. Good analogy of AOL in regards to META. I could see a him stepping down in the coming years to revitalize the company if this trend continues.
 
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#12,475
#12,475
JBLU also a nice and steady option for selling calls. Buy 2,500 shares today at 7.70, sell the $8 calls for about $450-500 per week premiums. Show me another $20,000 investment that brings $4-500 per week.
 
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