All things STOCKS

#12,506
#12,506
Velo Vol said:
These rapid market moves (and the fact that I'm not capitalizing on them) are making me mad. Sigh.
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All of the rallies so far have retreated. Those with FOMO and jump in now could face a longer wait to profitability than those that are patient. Averaging in is always a good idea though. You’ll never know when the bottom occurred until months later.

That said, I’m holding off on selling more covered calls for now. This one could continue up through the election a week and a half away. I sure won’t be selling many puts soon either.
 
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#12,507
#12,507
On the one hand, we almost always have a post-midterm rally (it's not mid-terms yet) and some technical indicators on breadth suggest we bottomed.

On the other hand, as far as I know, the Fed has not stopped tightening yet, and there are some ominous economic indicators.

 
#12,508
#12,508
Velo Vol said:
On the one hand, we almost always have a post-midterm rally (it's not mid-terms yet) and some technical indicators on breadth suggest we bottomed.

On the other hand, as far as I know, the Fed has not stopped tightening yet, and there are some ominous economic indicators.

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Everybody expects the Fed to raise rates, so when they do there shouldn’t be much happening with equities. However, part of this rally could be in anticipation of a 0.5% hike happening instead of the consensus 0.75%. So if it is 0.75% there could be another mini-crash coming.

Tax loss harvesting is about to commence, so all of these equities off 50% +/- might struggle to go higher for the next month plus.
 
#12,509
#12,509
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Everybody expects the Fed to raise rates, so when they do there shouldn’t be much happening with equities. However, part of this rally could be in anticipation of a 0.5% hike happening instead of the consensus 0.75%. So if it is 0.75% there could be another mini-crash coming.
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The central banks in Canada, Australia actually did this a couple days ago--softened policy versus expectations.

But I was watching financial twitter reasonably closely today and have seen no evidence (speeches or otherwise) that the US Fed is shifting.

I suspect much of today's movement was momentum driven. People buying simply because other people were buying.
 
#12,514
#12,514
VolAllen said:
Do we get a pivot from the Fed tomorrow or what, boys?
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I don't think Powell is going to explicitly say anything that deviates from the current trajectory.

However, the market may well read something into what he says (between the lines) and move a couple percent. I have no clue which direction, so I'm on the sidelines.
 
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#12,515
#12,515
Velo Vol said:
I don't think Powell is going to explicitly say anything that deviates from the current trajectory.

However, the market may well read something into what he says (between the lines) and move a couple percent. I have no clue which direction, so I'm on the sidelines.
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I’ve got a $5,000 bet on 11/4 $400 Spy calls lmao….we’ll see 🎰
 
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#12,517
#12,517
Velo Vol said:
It's possible we get there, but I really don't think Powell is going to say anything beyond a vague "we'll see what the data says" type statement.
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I think we’re going to get one of those “make things seem better before mid terms” pumps. Can’t imagine they want to close this year down 25% or whatever on the S&P.
 
#12,518
#12,518
I almost sold another covered call on MSTR today as the premiums were huge and the earnings were coming out at 5pm. I held off since I have another that I’d sold that’s been deep in the money (for the contract buyers - not for my short) and I didn’t want all the shares called away. I thought that the huge run up in the stock might have been foreshadowing an earnings blow out. That was the wrong bet. But BTC is holding over $20k. I’ll sell more of something next week. I’ve got profitable NFLX contracts expiring this week. BlackStone contracts still have 2 weeks to expiration.

The 11/4 MSTR $260 call is back out of the money right now after shares had been hanging around $280 for a while. After hours, the stock is down to $257/share with a not so great EA. I hope it stays OOTM through Friday. Then back to $280 or better after that (then I’ll sell CCs again). It will be interesting to watch that MSTR 221104 C 260 for the rest of the week. It might still be too expensive to buy to close with the strike only $3 above the share price, but if the shares stay under $260 that contract will crash in the next 3 sessions. $10.09 at today’s close. Contract range is $3.10 - $34. I sold last week at $8.69.

I had MMM called away at $121 last week on my shorted calls. The shares are holding strong around $125. Can’t complain though. They were assigned to me at $118 plus I collected premiums on the put earlier in October and again on the 10/28 call.

All good. I’m building up a cash reserve to sell more puts in that IRA. If the stock rally resumes I’ll sell more covered calls soon enough. Big wheel keep on turnin’.
 
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