All things STOCKS

[Go aeiou]

Nah. I love my boat. Teenagers flock to the boat, not the pool.

My last two boats were a 27' sail boat on Chicamauga. That lake is not big enough for a sail boat. The tacking was non stop.
Then a cabin cruiser on on Watts Bar.
We were past the age of teenagers in the family.
I used to kiddingly tell my teenagers, "No one likes teenagers except other teenagers."
When our daughter was 20 and dealt the incoming freshment at UT she called me, and said, "you were right, no one likes teenagers except other teenagers".
But to be sure, people seem to either love a boat or hate em. We just got little enjoyment from either of ours.
We also had a lake cottage that we enjoyed very much. We spent at least every other weekend there. No working like the boat required. We just hung around and enjoyed the calming view.

 

[Velo Vol]

 

[Jax_Vol]

In what power? POTUS? Congress? Also from what point in time? January 1st. With the elections in November then unfavorable results for markets can commence in early November. Does that drop get attributed to the incoming or outgoing party.

Also, don’t forget that the equity markets consider how the economy is expected to be performing 6-9 months or further out.

Also there are all sorts of non-political events randomly impacting equity markets at any time. COVID. 9/11. Dot com crash. ME oil strategies. Putin. Banking crisis (which was actually ignited at least in part by bad legislation).

Bad policies can certainly impact matters (taxes, escalating unwinnable wars, fed interest rates, stop issuing drilling permits and shutting down major (pipeline) projects, tariffs). It not as simple as one or the other is good or bad for markets. What would be ideal is bi-partisan cooperation at solving problems and doing what is best for the country. Like when Clinton and Newt used to work together. A couple of presidents ago that concept was abandoned.

From my memory, he is talking about when the POTS is a blue. You know that thunder....with your fake bluster.

For the remainder of this calendar year, do you foresee this election impacting the market either way?

 

[Orange.]

AMZN, BRK/B, ISRG, NFLX, NVDA, PYPL, TSLA, URI, CRM, DIS, JETS, ON, PANW, WDAY

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

From my memory, he is talking about when the POTS is a blue. You know that thunder....with your fake bluster.

For the remainder of this calendar year, do you foresee this election impacting the market either way?

Fake bluster?

 

[Jax_Vol]

Fake bluster?

come on. my dog has this chart memorized

Stock Market Performance Under A Democratic Or Republican President (financialsamurai.com)

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

come on. my dog has this chart memorized

Stock Market Performance Under A Democratic Or Republican President (financialsamurai.com)

That’s pretty simple minded to ignore all other variables. It’s really not even a scientific sample size considering the modern era of equity markets.

 

[Jax_Vol]

That’s pretty simple minded to ignore all other variables. It’s really not even a scientific sample size considering the modern era of equity markets.

I do concur. The other guy brought it up. The data is there. But, it is not that simple.

I just stepped in as a translator for what I think he was stating.

Anywho....wut you thinking about this week and next seven weeks?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I do concur. The other guy brought it up. The data is there. But, it is not that simple.

I just stepped in as a translator for what I think he was stating.

Anywho....wut you thinking about this week and next seven weeks?

I invest considering the long term and trade options based on very short term swings on specific securities. I might as well flip a coin for what I think happens for the rest of 2022. But I do expect to see tax loss harvesting having a negative effect during that time frame. But that could mean stocks go up 10% instead of 20% or fall 10% instead of 20%. I’m not ready to shovel more cash into equities. Small bites only.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I invest considering the long term and trade options based on very short term swings on specific securities. I might as well flip a coin for what I think happens for the rest of 2022. But I do expect to see tax loss harvesting having a negative effect during that time frame. But that could mean stocks go up 10% instead of 20% or fall 10% instead of 20%. I’m not ready to shovel more cash into equities. Small bites only.

Same here my man. Exact same here. Really wanted to shove today. But, settled for three small bites.

Even red / red, we still have Joe trying to robin hood things

 

[Go aeiou]

Fake bluster?

Sorry to get out of the discussion. Trying to catch up on Peaky Blinders.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Same here my man. Exact same here. Really wanted to shove today. But, settled for three small bites.

Even red / red, we still have Joe trying to robin hood things

I’m always looking to buy or sell MSTR and NFLX contracts. But I think that the actual volatility probably exceeds the IV this week. It’s tempting to sell 11/11/22 MSTR puts or calls. But I’d rather not have shares called away and I’d rather it pulls back to near the 220s before selling cash secured puts. But if it keeps pushing toward 300 I’ll have to write covered call contracts.

POTUS can certainly wreck things, but it’s stupid for any of them to go that route while remaining politically viable in voter’s perceptions. IMO Joe’s hostile EOs directed at the fossil fuel industry have greatly prolonged the current negative environment of both equity markets and the economy. And it has hurt families. It’s actually artificially created a supply issue that Big Oil is now exploiting.

Using COVID as an excuse to continue with the insane spending will affect many administrations to come. Nixon’s China policy still has repercussions to this day. The benefits of Reagan’s winning the Cold War had a bigger impact decades later than when he was in office. Obama’s Cash For Clunkers program prevents me from owning a nice decades old Chevy Blazer or GMC Jimmy.

But I’m not going to get into partisan politics any deeper in the All Things Stocks thread. I am going to drag my sick ass to the voting booth (actually it’s been a table lately) tomorrow.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I’ll be the guy in the voter line wearing this to see if anybody gets triggered by the color.

 

[VolAllen]

I’ll be the guy in the voter line wearing this to see if anybody gets triggered by the color.

I’ll be dusting off my red hat from 2016 as well.

 

[Velo Vol]

I might as well flip a coin for what I think happens for the rest of 2022.

On one hand there's a strong seasonal midterm pull upwards, on the other there's the Fed hammering against stock multiples.

It could go either way.

 

[mrorange211]

We saw a pop on election day in 18 but then a 7% declined over the next week. Not sure about 2020.

 

[Jax_Vol]

We saw a pop on election day in 18 but then a 7% declined over the next week. Not sure about 2020.

It 2018, we had a red POTUS. Did senate and/or congress change colors that year?

 

[Velo Vol]

It's a real thing

 

[Jax_Vol]

It's a real thing

View attachment 511953

To verify I'm reading that correctly...so year 3 of a POTUS term is historically a flat year? Year 4 is a boom year?

 

[Go aeiou]

It's a real thing

View attachment 511953

? Election is election day?
How long is the Post Elction period? 1 day, month?
Midterm is election day? Sideways
Preelection? same issues for me.
I'm just not catching on to this graph(s).

 

[Firebirdparts]

Looks like AMAT is running away. Not sure why now. 85 to 97 in 3 days and 10 minutes. This is the selling-covered-calls danger zone.

The good news, for me, is that I am overloaded on chip fab equipment suppliers anyway, and the fundamentals of AMAT are not great. if I wanted to hang on to it, I can roll it out and up about $1 per week for free.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

MSTR is down 40 to about $225. I had shares called away at $260 from a covered call I sold with the 11/4 expiration. It is very tempting to write puts again today.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Looks like AMAT is running away. Not sure why now. 85 to 97 in 3 days and 10 minutes. This is the selling-covered-calls danger zone.

The good news, for me, is that I am overloaded on chip fab equipment suppliers anyway, and the fundamentals of AMAT are not great. if I wanted to hang on to it, I can roll it out and up about $1 per week for free.

Without drilling down into the headlines it’s almost certainly China related. Either the CCP is being allowed to ramp up or spending on US manufacturing facilities is about to explode to replace the communists place in the supply chain. Intel is building a huge fab so they could be boosting AMAT as well.

 

[Jax_Vol]

GO VOTE PEOPLE!!!

 

[Firebirdparts]

To verify I'm reading that correctly...so year 3 of a POTUS term is historically a flat year? Year 4 is a boom year?

It seems like that might be kind of right. I admit they don't stand out to me when I look at it (see chart). In the database used, the average is flat after the midterms. So that might be telling us there were lots of down years in year 3. I don't know why; gridlock is my favorite form of government. I can see that 1931 was a big one, and 1987, while memorable, is actually flat. So it really does look like there's an absence of big up years.

When you look at the very noticeable correlation of democrat vs republican presidents, that data can be overwhelmed by a few stock market runs. FDR/Truman get 20 years starting in 1932, and obviously that's huge. Meanwhile, Herbert Hoover gets a -75%.

And we've certainly seen some of that in my lifetime. The 84 to 2000 run-up was huge, and it accelerated starting in 94. Y2K peak was not political. The global financial crisis creates a significant minimum exactly at the time of Obama's inauguration and really, that's entirely political. The government chose to withdraw adult supervision from idiot bankers (under Bush whether we like it or not). So Bush gets a big burn from this. The run from that point to Christmas 2021 is huge, so huge that Covid is not even noticeable anymore when you look at the chart. Whether we like it or not.

On the other hand, Nixon gets 5 years in there with no return at all, and in those days everything was political; the government took a shocking amount of control over the economy, whether we like it or not. There was a divot created right at the time of his resignation, and I guess he actually caused that personally. I don't know.

If you want to predict, I think you should believe the fed holds all the cards right now. When somebody tells you they're going to cause a recession, and they have the power to do so, I say believe them. They need to sell off their balance sheet and that's what adults would do. Whether we like it or not.