All things STOCKS

#12,626
#12,626
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Without drilling down into the headlines it’s almost certainly China related. Either the CCP is being allowed to ramp up or spending on US manufacturing facilities is about to explode to replace the communists place in the supply chain. Intel is building a huge fab so they could be boosting AMAT as well.
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I think so. Most of this was common knowledge, but I guess there is some rumoring about further government actions.
 
#12,628
#12,628
Firebirdparts said:
It seems like that might be kind of right. I admit they don't stand out to me when I look at it (see chart). In the database used, the average is flat after the midterms. So that might be telling us there were lots of down years in year 3. I don't know why; gridlock is my favorite form of government. I can see that 1931 was a big one, and 1987, while memorable, is actually flat. So it really does look like there's an absence of big up years.

When you look at the very noticeable correlation of democrat vs republican presidents, that data can be overwhelmed by a few stock market runs. FDR/Truman get 20 years starting in 1932, and obviously that's huge. Meanwhile, Herbert Hoover gets a -75%.

And we've certainly seen some of that in my lifetime. The 84 to 2000 run-up was huge, and it accelerated starting in 94. Y2K peak was not political. The global financial crisis creates a significant minimum exactly at the time of Obama's inauguration and really, that's entirely political. The government chose to withdraw adult supervision from idiot bankers (under Bush whether we like it or not). So Bush gets a big burn from this. The run from that point to Christmas 2021 is huge, so huge that Covid is not even noticeable anymore when you look at the chart. Whether we like it or not.

On the other hand, Nixon gets 5 years in there with no return at all, and in those days everything was political; the government took a shocking amount of control over the economy, whether we like it or not. There was a divot created right at the time of his resignation, and I guess he actually caused that personally. I don't know.

If you want to predict, I think you should believe the fed holds all the cards right now. When somebody tells you they're going to cause a recession, and they have the power to do so, I say believe them. They need to sell off their balance sheet and that's what adults would do. Whether we like it or not.

sp-500-historical-annual-returns.png
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Not sure Powell is saying "I'm gonna cause a recession". He hopes to slow inflation which is part 0f his job. OTOH, I don't know if anyone has done that successfully before. It's a fluid world, things change quickly. He's not the only person effecting the economy.
 
#12,631
#12,631
Go aeiou said:
Or totally unrelated.
I suspect it'll be red, red, red. Also unrelated to the price of gold.
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POTUS is still going to be blue. Our best chance is for Senate to be red. And House to be red.

The polling isn't of any value. For example, in Georgia...they are scared to go in there and actually poll downtown Atlanta. I still think Walker loses to Ralph in that state.

If we wake up blue blue blue tomorrow, the market will certainly crash. Therefore, take your cash out of equities and either short or buy gold. Not a bad short term play honestly if you wanting to gamble
 
#12,632
#12,632
Jax_Vol said:
POTUS is still going to be blue. Our best chance is for Senate to be red. And House to be red.

The polling isn't of any value. For example, in Georgia...they are scared to go in there and actually poll downtown Atlanta. I still think Walker loses to Ralph in that state.

If we wake up blue blue blue tomorrow, the market will certainly crash. Therefore, take your cash out of equities and either short or buy gold. Not a bad short term play honestly if you wanting to gamble
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long tern investor so not a real gambler.

GA election. Hershel Walker didn't hand out candy for Halloween. He didn't even answer his door. He didn't know if it would be a kid wanting a pice of candy or a child support check.:)
 
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#12,633
#12,633
Go aeiou said:
long tern investor so not a real gambler.

GA election. Hershel Walker didn't hand out candy for Halloween. He didn't even answer his door. He didn't now if it would be a kid wanting a pice of candy or a child support check.:)
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Yes, I understand. I'm a 95% long term investor. None of my discussions are referring to the real money.

For entertainment / mental exercise, I'm certainly not day trading. But, I am news-based mo-mo trading a bit. Mostly currently sitting in cash. Don't trust these red based poll numbers at all.

BTW, I'm a rare purple in TN. Slight red lean, but voted for a second term of Obama.
 
#12,634
#12,634
So for what it's worth, I thought the mid-terms were bullish, and I was confused about the chart above. Here's what I thought was accepted:
1667933581204.png
I got further curious and so I took my crayons to this picture:
1667933623023.png

Looks big to me. I don't know. I guess we'll see. I apologize for using annual returns, but it's available and close enough.
 
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#12,635
#12,635
Jax_Vol said:
POTUS is still going to be blue. Our best chance is for Senate to be red. And House to be red.

If we wake up blue blue blue tomorrow, the market will certainly crash.
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I doubt it. If you see conspirators behind every tree, get some testosterone shots or something.
 
#12,636
#12,636
Firebirdparts said:
I doubt it. If you see conspirators behind every tree, get some testosterone shots or something.
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LOL! That is extremely true. I need to order some of that Low-T medicine off television.

Thought later...I didn't really mean 'crash' Should have said 'drop'.
 
#12,637
#12,637
Firebirdparts said:
So for what it's worth, I thought the mid-terms were bullish, and I was confused about the chart above. Here's what I thought was accepted:
View attachment 512058
I got further curious and so I took my crayons to this picture:
View attachment 512059

Looks big to me. I don't know. I guess we'll see. I apologize for using annual returns, but it's available and close enough.
Click to expand...


Yes! I like the crayon results much better. That is kinda what I might have guessed.

There are outliers, but year three is typically the calmest year.
 
#12,638
#12,638
Jax_Vol said:
Yes, I understand. I'm a 95% long term investor. None of my discussions are referring to the real money.

For entertainment / mental exercise, I'm certainly not day trading. But, I am news-based mo-mo trading a bit. Mostly currently sitting in cash. Don't trust these red based poll numbers at all.
BTW, I'm a rare purple in TN. Slight red lean, but voted for a second term of Obama.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the polls are pretty worthless these days. I think many people lie.
I tell people my life changes very little regardless of who gets elected, and that is every election.
Your percentage of LT stock to ST trading is similar to mine. I just enjoy trading ST(if I make money). I should probably just turn my money over to Vanguard now and pay them .3% annually to manage it.

I voted:
72 Nixon
76 Carter
80 Regan
84 Regan
88 Bush
92Clinton
96 Clinton
00 Bush
04 Bush
08 Obama
12 Obama
16 None
20 Biden
Well, that is 6 Ds and 6 Rs. 1 no vote. Can't get much more purple than that.
 
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#12,639
#12,639
Go aeiou said:
Yeah, the polls are pretty worthless these days. I think many people lie.
I tell people my life changes very little regardless of who get elected, and that is every election.
Your percentage of LT stock to ST trading is similar to mine. I just enjoy trading ST(if I make money). I should probably just turn my money over to Vanguard now and pay them .3% annually to manage it.

I voted:
72 Nixon
76 Carter
80 Regan
84 Regan
88 Bush
92Clinton
96 Clinton
00 Bush
04 Bush
08 Obama
12 Obama
16 None
20 Biden
Well, that is 6 Ds and 6 Rs. 1 no vote. Can't get much more purple than that.
Click to expand...

Same with me. Even with Biden entering picture, I did well with the play money in 2020 and 2021. 2022 has been terrible and huge waste of time. Need to let the pros have at it for the .3%.

I'm a few years younger than you but had:
Nixon
Carter
Carter
Reagan
Bush
Bush
Clinton
Bush
Bush
McClain
Obama
Trump
Trump

Looks like I am 9-4 red. You are indeed a true purple.
 
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#12,641
#12,641
Jax_Vol said:
Same with me. Even with Biden entering picture, I did well with the play money in 2020 and 2021. 2022 has been terrible and huge waste of time. Need to let the pros have at it for the .3%.

I'm a few years younger than you but had:
Nixon
Carter
Carter
Reagan
Bush
Bush
Clinton
Bush
Bush
McClain
Obama
Trump
Trump

Looks like I am 9-4 red. You are indeed a true purple.
Click to expand...

I missed one. I voted for McGovern in 72, not Nixon. i was concerned about the never ending war in VN, and McGovern opposed it.
I dropped my college deferment in the year I would most likely be drafted(19th birthday). I recall that my birthday was #125, and They got up to 109 in my county (Anderson) that year.:eek:
So I'm 7-5 blue.
 
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#12,642
#12,642
Go aeiou said:
I missed one. I voted for McGovern in 72, not Nixon. i was concerned about the never ending war in VN, and McGovern opposed it.
I dropped my college deferment in the year I would most likely be drafted(19th birthday). I recall that my birthday was #125, and They got up to 109 in my county (Anderson) that year.:eek:
So I'm 7-5 blue.
Click to expand...

Wow!!!! Glad they stopped just short of you. Yes, that would have received my vote for sure (if I was of age in 1972).
 
#12,643
#12,643
Go aeiou said:
Yeah, the polls are pretty worthless these days. I think many people lie.
I tell people my life changes very little regardless of who get elected, and that is every election.
Your percentage of LT stock to ST trading is similar to mine. I just enjoy trading ST(if I make money). I should probably just turn my money over to Vanguard now and pay them .3% annually to manage it.

I voted:
72 Nixon
76 Carter
80 Regan
84 Regan
88 Bush
92Clinton
96 Clinton
00 Bush
04 Bush
08 Obama
12 Obama
16 None
20 Biden
Well, that is 6 Ds and 6 Rs. 1 no vote. Can't get much more purple than that.
Click to expand...
Biden….baha
 
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#12,646
#12,646
Jax_Vol said:
To verify I'm reading that correctly...so year 3 of a POTUS term is historically a flat year? Year 4 is a boom year?
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No, the midterm year (in our case '22) is historically the worst one of the four year cycle. After the mid-terms (often divided government) the market rallies the most. But we're probably looking at a recession next year, so who knows?
 
#12,649
#12,649
Velo Vol said:
No, the midterm year (in our case '22) is historically the worst one of the four year cycle. After the mid-terms (often divided government) the market rallies the most. But we're probably looking at a recession next year, so who knows?
Click to expand...

Got it now! The crayon work helped me understand.

Yes, we will know somewhat more tomorrow. Quite a bit more by Monday.

Might be an outstanding year to have the market closed on Friday.
 
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