All things STOCKS

#12,951
#12,951
Jax_Vol said:
WOW!! That would be crazy.

I tried to look around at the various shopping venues this weekend. Americans seemed to still be buying like crazy. Just looked like a typical Black Friday with shopping buggies loaded with high dollar items.
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Turkey Creek in Knoxville was just another weekend. I'm sure it had it's moments of volume but for the most part it was pretty tame.
 
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#12,952
#12,952
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I studied some option prices this morning and the premiums for near term expirations just aren’t that attractive to me to short. If I tended to be long options, I’d find a lot of opportunities today.

Why do you want to buy puts before 2023? I’m thinking that equities have a really good chance of advancing once 2022 is in the rear view mirror.
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Concur here. Equities in 2023 good for at least 10%
 
#12,954
#12,954
Velo Vol said:
Fed tightening and economic recession?

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By 2023 most of the rate hikes should be complete. And prices don’t lag economic realities. They typically are several months or even a year ahead of mirroring the economy. Also, near full employment and some inflation isn’t necessarily a bad formula for corporate profits. But the cost of energy combined with higher tax rates could damage bottom lines.
 
#12,955
#12,955
Thunder Good-Oil said:
By 2023 most of the rate hikes should be complete. And prices don’t lag economic realities. They typically are several months or even a year ahead of mirroring the economy. Also, near full employment and some inflation isn’t necessarily a bad formula for corporate profits. But the cost of energy combined with higher tax rates could damage bottom lines.
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Earnings outlooks revised down.

I don't have a crystal ball, but it's definitely a risk the next several months.
 
#12,959
#12,959
mrorange211 said:
we haven't seen bottom yet. not close.
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I think we'll revisit the low. I don't know when.

Someone said there is a minor seasonal selloff at the beginning of December because fund managers typically do something then. My guess is that greater volatility appears towards the end of the tightening cycle next year.
 
#12,960
#12,960
Velo Vol said:
I think we'll revisit the low. I don't know when.

Someone said there is a minor seasonal selloff at the beginning of December because fund managers typically do something then. My guess is that greater volatility appears towards the end of the tightening cycle next year.
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There are several reasons to buy or not buy in Dec. A little research will do a better job explaing than I can.
 
#12,962
#12,962
OK, what he says is that the first couple weeks funds may be selling off losers and to make distributions.

Then, the "Santa Claus" rally when they buy to rebalance their holdings and window-dress with better-performing stocks.

 
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#12,963
#12,963
Velo Vol said:
OK, what he says is that the first couple weeks funds may be selling off losers and to make distributions.

Then, the "Santa Claus" rally when they buy to rebalance their holdings and window-dress with better-performing stocks.

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Shouldn’t this year be somewhat different? Unless you were in energy, seems like everyone has an abundance of loser stocks. For 2022 tax purposes, I definitely won’t be paying any capital gains. Would like to be able to write off a couple of zillion dollars in capital losses!
 
#12,966
#12,966
Velo Vol said:
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Short term...J-Pow is talking this afternoon. Are we thinking that will sink us? Short short short...

The last several times he spoke, we have gone down.

If he indicates that the next hike will be .50 instead of .75, unsure of reaction?

My guess....we still go down this afternoon...sharply.
 
#12,967
#12,967
So maybe this is what is expected:

Powell is expected to reinforce the dual message central bank officials have been making for weeks: that the Fed is on track to ease up slightly on its pace of monetary policy tightening, likely slowing to a 50 basis point increase next month after four straight 75 basis point hikes.
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So depending on what he says, the market will react as you'd expect. The odds here being "ho hum" really. No reason to expect anything interesting.
 
#12,969
#12,969
I don't know how the market will react, but odds are he'll say again what he's been saying for the last six months.
 
#12,970
#12,970
Velo Vol said:
I don't know how the market will react, but odds are he'll say again what he's been saying for the last six months.
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In that case, we should swing into action right now. The last two, and perhaps three, times he spoke....the market dropped like rock afterwards. The speech was not priced in there. We need to short QQQ now!
 
#12,971
#12,971
Kewl Beans!!

The Federal Reserve is on track to slow its pace of monetary policy tightening as soon as December, Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday.

In a speech at the Brookings Institution, Powell said the Fed remains focused on reining in inflation and, despite recent progress, the central bank “has more ground to cover” and may ultimately need to raise interest rates higher than previously thought.

Powell suggested the Fed will be slowing the pace at which it reaches its terminal rate as it waits for the impact of interest rate increases—including four straight 75 basis point hikes this year—to filter through the economy.
 
#12,973
#12,973
Well boys…..my largest F*** up to date. Sold for +$550……worth $149,000 at close. I’m going to jump off a bridge now.

DBEEAC3E-8ADB-424E-9B01-08178891CB32.jpeg
 
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