All things STOCKS

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Sold those Tsla shares at like 5am with one eye open +$300. Glad I did!

Then bought Spy, then shorted Spy for +$700 to start the day. Loaded 250 shares of Costco looking for a little pre ER run. Again, I’m out if it bounces a couple of bucks.

I keep flip flopping on TSLA. On one of the business networks this morning they pointed out that the EV subsidies made TSLA a bloated stock. Still, I’m thinking about selling the TSLA 2022 12 16 P $175 if it moves up near $6 though.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Jamie Dimon talking s*** about crypto this morning. I kind of want to sell some calls on MicroStrategy, but MSTR is trending near the 52 week low. I don’t like writing calls after large pullbacks. But I wouldn’t mind having some shares called either. The premiums are still huge so I’d still make a profit even if the calls end up ITM at expirations.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Oil still going down.

 

[mrorange211]

Oil still going down.

That's because a massive recession and deflation is coming.

 

[Jax_Vol]

That's because a massive recession and deflation is coming.

Are the shorties up 40-50% in CY 2022? Rough times for an optimistic personality.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Well, it is what it is, you know. Doomsayers have predicted 900 million of the last 24 disasters.

Happiness is mostly genetic.

 

[Velo Vol]

That's because a massive recession and deflation is coming.

Oh? At any rate, last Wednesday's Powell pump is gone.

 

[VolAllen]

Well…..Costco giving me a nice smack in the balls

 

[Jax_Vol]

Well, it is what it is, you know. Doomsayers have predicted 900 million of the last 24 disasters.

Happiness is mostly genetic.

Yup. I still think we're coming out of it. And, the market tends to get out ahead of the actual true recovery. We printed too much money, but it won't take long for the wealthy to collect all that away from the poor. And, then we will be off and running again...perhaps in about 10 weeks.

 

[mrorange211]

Yup. I still think we're coming out of it. And, the market tends to get out ahead of the actual true recovery. We printed too much money, but it won't take long for the wealthy to collect all that away from the poor. And, then we will be off and running again...perhaps in about 10 weeks.

Don't get me wrong, I hope you are right. I have my doubts.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Don't get me wrong, I hope you are right. I have my doubts.

Yeah, I do too.

Costco sold a huge volume of gas last quarter. That may save them.

Dangerous times to jump in pre-earnings. Dollar General busted me up last week.

 

[Firebirdparts]

I keep flip flopping on TSLA. On one of the business networks this morning they pointed out that the EV subsidies made TSLA a bloated stock. Still, I’m thinking about selling the TSLA 2022 12 16 P $175 if it moves up near $6 though.

It's none of my business, but to blame it on something basic makes it sound as if Tesla's market cap, when it was a trillion, wasn't totally idiotic. Like there was a reason for it other than insanity. So I think it's disingenuous.

I would never predict whether it'll go up or down. Idiotic doesn't tell you that. They have made it past the debt stage and they're going to continue to exist, so that's really good. On the other hand, the car business is cruel. It just is. Too much competition. It takes everybody to the woodshed sooner or later.

 

[Firebirdparts]

To the doomsaying, I did see a headline today that said Fed tightening is "just starting to be felt." I can't judge whether that's true, but I do see that the rate they're going is going to be a loooooooong process. It should be having an effect for a long time, assuming they can maintain some kind of adult supervision up there.

 

[Jax_Vol]

To the doomsaying, I did see a headline today that said Fed tightening is "just starting to be felt." I can't judge whether that's true, but I do see that the rate they're going is going to be a loooooooong process. It should be having an effect for a long time, assuming they can maintain some kind of adult supervision up there.

I think 2-3 of the 0.50 bumps should do the trick. Follow with a couple of springtime 0.25 bumps, and we will be off and running by Memorial Day.

 

[Firebirdparts]

That's a different thing, and yeah, in 6 months is should be over if any of that works like they think. I ponder it, though. What they really need is for lots and lots of people to go to work and work. That's what really creates plenty. Plenty of course stops the inflation. I'm not sure how slowing the economy is going to be digested by the public. Unemployment is 3% but then the number of people who have jobs is more like 60%. 37% don't count somehow, FWIW. here lately, it just hasn't quite been enough.

But anyway, the Federal reserve owns about 9 trillion worth of government bonds. they bought these with money created out of thin air. if they sell them, the money that people pay the fed ceases to exist. They use this process to control the amount of dollars that there are out there in circulation. I'm not sure what the right amount of balance sheet is. In 2008, "stimulate your way out of this problem" became the new normal for monetary policy. It was 1 trillion then. About half the 9 trillion got bought during covid, so that's another measure. This is what they're doing that's slow.

 

[Velo Vol]

Meanwhile

 

[mrorange211]

No one investing in the last 10 years has experienced what the FED is doing right now combined with the end of QE. We do not really know the implications of not having access to free money anymore, and that's what makes me pessimistic.

 

[Firebirdparts]

The good news is, they have targets and a direction. This is the only crystal ball you're ever going to have. That said, I admit that there's no way I'd pull everything out of the market because of any Nostradamus delusions, let alone shorting something.

 

[mrorange211]

The good news is, they have targets and a direction. This is the only crystal ball you're ever going to have. That said, I admit that there's no way I'd pull everything out of the market because of any Nostradamus delusions, let alone shorting something.

I haven't actively shorted anything since September. I have been and will remain in cash only.

 

[Firebirdparts]

I can't stop seeing the climb out on the other side. I've lost half my net worth twice. Didn't have any to lose in the 70's, but I was well aware of what was going on. So to me, I just can't get excited about "re-timing" the market. To me, this tightening is pretty dull.

 

[Velo Vol]

I haven't actively shorted anything since September. I have been and will remain in cash only.

How much do you get on cash at your place now? Fidelity 3.3ish% the last time I checked.

 

[Go aeiou]

I haven't actively shorted anything since September. I have been and will remain in cash only.

You mght take a look at 1-2 years CDs and Treasuries. I loaded up at 4-4.7%. Some will mature in the spring 2023.

 

[Velo Vol]

You mght take a look at 1-2 years CDs and Treasuries. I loaded up at 4-4.7%. Some will mature in the spring 2023.

Even using doing a 3 month ladder it's 4+%

 

[Go aeiou]

Even using doing a 3 month ladder it's 4+%

Yeah, I bought a while back. I just looked and plenty available at 4.5-5%.
Things change.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Yeah...age and health are a piece of the puzzle.

If you are under 65-70, and in good health, try to stop looking at your account for a couple of years.

I'm trying to keep the fall of 2008 and winter of 2009 in mind. For 6-8 months there, things looked bleak. But, never sold a share of mutual funds...kept on buying through payroll withdrawals. By Memorial Day 2009, all was well again.

Had a 70's age retired friend who went all cash near Christmas of 2008 (sold near the bottom). He missed getting back in before things shot up again. Ended up passing away ten years later without much of an estate (owned a nice farm and got by ok). Just messed up his stock portfolio because he became convinced that it was going down for a decade. Lesson Learned: Hold!!! As needed, don't look.