All things STOCKS

#13,027
#13,027
VolAllen said:
WeBull analysis has a short term bearish call on XOM and I’ve gotta say the numbers they’re calling for would be quite a fall.

View attachment 520753
Click to expand...

That is very interesting. So, I read a couple of articles. Had forgot that Russia is included in the OPEC meeting tomorrow.

I'm biased, but think OPEC is going to take care of OPEC.

They either stay the course, or reduce production to raise the falling prices.

From the news side of house, I don't see a XOM drop. But, the technical chart may be a better indicator on oil.
 
#13,028
#13,028
Oil Jumps as China Loosens Curbs and OPEC+ Keeps Output Steady
Yongchang Chin and Serene Cheong
Sun, December 4, 2022 at 6:24 PM



  • (Bloomberg) -- Oil surged after OPEC+ kept output steady, sanctions on Russian crude kicked in, and China made further progress toward reopening.
 
#13,029
#13,029
Jax_Vol said:
Oil Jumps as China Loosens Curbs and OPEC+ Keeps Output Steady
Yongchang Chin and Serene Cheong
Sun, December 4, 2022 at 6:24 PM



  • (Bloomberg) -- Oil surged after OPEC+ kept output steady, sanctions on Russian crude kicked in, and China made further progress toward reopening.
Click to expand...

Crude oil chart and XOM chart seem to be a bit disconnected. Is there something I’m missing there? XOM still basically sitting at all time highs while the price per barrel has fallen from over $120 back down to $80.
 
#13,030
#13,030
VolAllen said:
Crude oil chart and XOM chart seem to be a bit disconnected. Is there something I’m missing there? XOM still basically sitting at all time highs while the price per barrel has fallen from over $120 back down to $80.
Click to expand...

I don't follow Exxon, BP. or any of those big boys that started as Standard Oil. There is some serious hustling going on that business IMO. They can make the prices / production whatever they want.

Have tried and failed with a couple of the smaller / newer texas based companies. When I have a hunch on gas prices dropping, I play SCO which is an inverse play.

Currently have a bit of the Vanguard Energy Index VDE because I think it will ease up thru Christmas.

Watching Bud Adams fumble around w/Titans for a couple of decades kept me away from oil.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tbh
#13,031
#13,031
VolAllen said:
WeBull analysis has a short term bearish call on XOM and I’ve gotta say the numbers they’re calling for would be quite a fall.
Click to expand...
They're bound to come down sooner or later. BUT, they have been untethered to the price of oil for weeks now, so odds are that tomorrow won't be the flashpoint. Crude versus XLE the last six months.

1670212475779.png
 
Last edited:
#13,032
#13,032
Long term I’m more bothered by the Netherlands confiscating farms. It’s one thing if that’s happening in a communist ruled country or an unstable one like somewhere in Africa. That’s very Chinese-like by a “free” Northern European country. Who thinks surrendering your farm to the government under the guise of saving the environment is a good idea?

Watch out for the globalists’ agenda gaining more traction. Bill Gates is buying up farmland. The Dutch government is taking farms by force. George Soros and Mark Zuckerbucks have bought a lot of governance. BlackRock (I own a chunk of BLK and feel kind of dirty for it) is taking their enormous AUMs and pushing the ESG agenda on where they invest. Keeping an eye on what Elon is up to.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: tbh and VolAllen
#13,033
#13,033
Jax_Vol said:
I don't follow Exxon, BP. or any of those big boys that started as Standard Oil. There is some serious hustling going on that business IMO. They can make the prices / production whatever they want.

Have tried and failed with a couple of the smaller / newer texas based companies. When I have a hunch on gas prices dropping, I play SCO which is an inverse play.

Currently have a bit of the Vanguard Energy Index VDE because I think it will ease up thru Christmas.

Watching Bud Adams fumble around w/Titans for a couple of decades kept me away from oil.
Click to expand...

As far as energy goes, over the past year (since I started with my hobby/"retirement beer money" account) I've generally limited the majority of my exposure to midstream-oriented operations...KMI, ENB, and EPD. I just recently picked up a bit of PXD though. I'll have to check out VDE...I may start moving out of PXD and into that or FENY to diversify. Thanks for bringing VDE to my attention!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jax_Vol
#13,035
#13,035
tbh said:
As far as energy goes, over the past year (since I started with my hobby/"retirement beer money" account) I've generally limited the majority of my exposure to midstream-oriented operations...KMI, ENB, and EPD. I just recently picked up a bit of PXD though. I'll have to check out VDE...I may start moving out of PXD and into that or FENY to diversify. Thanks for bringing VDE to my attention!
Click to expand...

Sure thing! Now that I think about that, VDE is actually an ETF with decent volume. It is kinda a news based play for guys kind me who don't follow energy. Yet, I know oil / gas will probably go up over next 2-3 months. Good luck!
 
  • Like
Reactions: tbh
#13,036
#13,036
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Long term I’m more bothered by the Netherlands confiscating farms. It’s one thing if that’s happening in a communist ruled country or an unstable one somewhere like Africa. That’s very Chinese-like by a “free” Northern European country. Who thinks surrendering your farm to the government under the guise of saving the environment is a good idea?

Watch out for the globalists’ agenda gaining more traction. Bill Gates is buying up farmland. The Dutch government is taking farms by force. George Soros and Mark Zuckerbucks have bought a lot of governance. BlackRock (I own a chunk of BLK and feel kind of dirty for it) is taking their enormous AUMs and pushing the ESG agenda on where they invest. Keeping an eye on what Elon is up to.
Click to expand...

Going against a Soros funded expert witness in a tax case I am working on. Case is in a very red state...
 
#13,037
#13,037
Velo Vol said:
Unclear what long-term impact this will have.

Click to expand...


Yeah, I don't know either. Initial thought is who really cares. If we are supporting Ukraine, hope we buy minimal oil from Russia. Or anything else for that matter.

Russia needs to pack up their troops and go home. Until that happens, they can pound sand.
 
#13,038
#13,038
We are going to open way down, but after first couple of hours....I think it slowly eases upwards. Might even end slightly green.
 
#13,039
#13,039
Jax_Vol said:
Sure thing! Now that I think about that, VDE is actually an ETF with decent volume. It is kinda a news based play for guys kind me who don't follow energy. Yet, I know oil / gas will probably go up over next 2-3 months. Good luck!
Click to expand...

That sounds like it may be right up my alley in terms of a 'fire and forget' solution. Good luck to you as well, and thanks again!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jax_Vol
#13,042
#13,042
Velo Vol said:
How much do we make of last week's breakout?

Click to expand...

IMO the direction of the MA is more relevant than where the market is in relation to it. The direction of the MA is what really indicates trend (which is still lower). There are also all sorts of fakeouts around widely watched levels like that.

If the market chops around in here, puts in a higher low, gets that 200 DMA to flatten out and then pushes back above it, that would be a pretty bullish indication from a technical perspective. The 200 DMA would start to head higher at that point, and pullbacks to the rising 200 DMA could offer support. But at the moment it's still declining, and we still have that pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart.
 
#13,043
#13,043
05_never_again said:
If the market chops around in here, puts in a higher low, gets that 200 DMA to flatten out and then pushes back above it, that would be a pretty bullish indication from a technical perspective. The 200 DMA would start to head higher at that point, and pullbacks to the rising 200 DMA could offer support. But at the moment it's still declining, and we still have that pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart.
Click to expand...
For months the 200MA was the ceiling on the trading range, and now I guess it should not be viewed as it, even if the breakthrough only lasted a couple days?

1670262178547.png
 
#13,044
#13,044
Velo Vol said:
For months the 200MA was the ceiling on the trading range, and now I guess it should not be viewed as it, even if the breakthrough only lasted a couple days?

View attachment 520967
Click to expand...
I wouldn't take that level too literally, even though it did tag it almost perfectly and fail back in August. If we keep falling, I'd consider it to be an unsuccessful test of the declining 200 DMA, even though for a couple of sessions it traded above it. Traders play all sorts of games around widely-watched levels like that, trying to get bulls excited when it moves above it (or bears excited when it moves below it).
 
#13,045
#13,045
Velo Vol said:
How much do we make of last week's breakout?

Click to expand...


Coupled with other intel, I think it means 2023 will be a positive year for stocks. Maybe not for Jan-March.

But, I feel much more confident that we are within 10ish% of bottom. Couldn't make that statement in October.
 
#13,047
#13,047
Velo Vol said:
What's the point of buying a deep ITM option like this?

Click to expand...


The premium is slightly more than the difference between the strike and current which equates to a tiny discount by percentage.

If they have decided 100% to go long the shares then they get a small premium plus their cost of borrowing is cut in half for the next 2 months.

If the share price is cut in half (unlikely with GOOG or MSFT and a Q1-2023 expiration) then the net result actually becomes a gain.

Maybe they roll it for little cost and extend the time frame for a profitable drop in price.

I think that the lower borrowing cost could be the motivation here.

Maybe there is a tax advantage by increasing a loss by the amount of an offsetting LT gain. Maybe not - the cost basis might simply be adjusted. I’ve not thought much about options taxation since I’ve kept all of my trades inside of an IRA wrapper.
 
#13,048
#13,048
Jax_Vol said:
Coupled with other intel, I think it means 2023 will be a positive year for stocks. Maybe not for Jan-March.

But, I feel much more confident that we are within 10ish% of bottom. Couldn't make that statement in October.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how you can feel that way, but only time will tell.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top