All things STOCKS

#15,001
#15,001
I’m thinking real hard about selling PLTR covered calls. About $21 and 2 months out.

$16.60/share underlying.
8/18 $17: $2.01/$2.04
8/18 $20: $1.11/$1.13
8/18 $21: $0.92/$0.96
 
#15,002
#15,002
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’m thinking real hard about selling PLTR covered calls. About $21 and 2 months out.

$16.60/share underlying.
8/18 $17: $2.01/$2.04
8/18 $20: $1.11/$1.13
8/18 $21: $0.92/$0.96
Click to expand...

You enjoy playing with fire imho. But, interesting company.


Anyone have a clue on what Powell will be chattering about this morning?
 
#15,005
#15,005
Jax_Vol said:
You enjoy playing with fire imho. But, interesting company.
Click to expand...

Going long the shares was risky. Selling covered calls is zero risk other than the opportunity cost of missing a run up in share price.

I had the right idea, but I almost always place options orders with a 20%-50% extra. So I missed selling the PLTR calls that day. Shares have fallen from above $17 to below $15 in a flash. It’s going to struggle to find a floor. It turned on a dime from a darling to a toxic stock. Which is why the premiums on those options are so good.
 
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#15,006
#15,006
I wanted to buy copper today (FCX). But of course it’s up several percentage points last I checked. I also had my eye on ATI but it has popped as well.

Now I’m looking at FDX and UPS. But I’m going to wait a couple of days before entering an order. Powell might have just started those two on a months long decline.

Being patient is a struggle. Often the wait is so long for an equity to move where I want it, I’ll lose interest before it gets there.
 
#15,007
#15,007
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I wanted to buy copper today (FCX). But of course it’s up several percentage points last I checked. I also had my eye on ATI but it has popped as well.

Now I’m looking at FDX and UPS. But I’m going to wait a couple of days before entering an order. Powell might have just started those two on a months long decline.

Being patient is a struggle. Often the wait is so long for an equity to move where I want it, I’ll lose interest before it gets there.
Click to expand...

I had UPS calls but got crushed today after the FedEx earnings dump. Made it all back and then some with AMD puts, though.
 
#15,008
#15,008
Tri-CitiesVol said:
I had UPS calls but got crushed today after the FedEx earnings dump. Made it all back and then some with AMD puts, though.
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My strategy when I want to go long a stock is to short the puts instead of buying the calls. Basically acts like a buy order with a limit that pays me if the shares go up and I miss my limit price. If shares fall then the premium gives me a slightly better price than just a traditional buy-limit order. But it does tie up a lot of investment capital relative to the potential returns from pocketing the option premium.
 
#15,011
#15,011
Jax_Vol said:
Yes, it was. I thought the Powell speech was ok. But, the market was still deflated.

Maybe better next week?
Click to expand...

My GUESS is that equities will be under downward pressure for another week or two. I would also anticipate a somewhat sideways move for a few months. Stocks wanted to go up as exhibited by the 4 or 5 weeks prior to this one, but that hawkish Fed narrative might have tempered the markets until more inflation and employment data indicates a favorable direction and timing of rates. That May/June rise in equity averages might have been in anticipation of the Fed indicating that they’re done. So since they didn’t those earlier gains most likely have to be given back.

I think that there are still a lot of names and a few sectors that can be bought. Healthcare has lagged but the demographics are great. I’ve been very interested in industrial names, infrastructure, and energy as a theme. At some point the divergence of political philosophy should erode and EVERYBODY will see the wisdom of investing in domestic supply chains and manufacturing and transportation. I think that there will be a lot of infrastructure build out over the next decade or two. Weather bridges, roads, tunnels, and rail or manufacturing facilities and equipment. I think that a lot of steel, asphalt, concrete, aluminum, copper, lithium, and other inputs are about to be deployed into the economy.
 
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#15,012
#15,012
Thunder Good-Oil said:
My GUESS is that equities will be under downward pressure for another week or two. I would also anticipate a somewhat sideways move for a few months. Stocks wanted to go up as exhibited by the 4 or 5 weeks prior to this one, but that hawkish Fed narrative might have tempered the markets until more inflation and employment data indicates a favorable direction and timing of rates. That May/June rise in equity averages might have been in anticipation of the Fed indicating that they’re done. So since they didn’t those earlier gains most likely have to be given back.

I think that there are still a lot of names and a few sectors that can be bought. Healthcare has lagged but the demographics are great. I’ve been very interested in industrial names, infrastructure, and energy as a theme. At some point the divergence of political philosophy should erode and EVERYBODY will see the wisdom of investing in domestic supply chains and manufacturing and transportation. I think that there will be a lot of infrastructure build out over the next decade or two. Weather bridges, roads, tunnels, and rail or manufacturing facilities and equipment. I think that a lot of steel, asphalt, concrete, aluminum, copper, lithium, and other inputs are about to be deployed into the economy.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I can not understand why healthcare has lagged. Thinking about throwing a chunk back into that since they are well off their highs for the year.

Wish I understood why they have been going down down down.
 
#15,013
#15,013
Jax_Vol said:
Yeah. I can not understand why healthcare has lagged. Thinking about throwing a chunk back into that since they are well off their highs for the year.

Wish I understood why they have been going down down down.
Click to expand...

Maybe the sector outperformed during the heights of COVID. Possibly the sector has diverged. Big Pharma was maybe outpacing being boosted by vaccines. But those stocks that were highly dependent on elective procedures had lagged (and are either primed to take off or got ahead of proper valuations in 2022). I think that I bought about a year ago and it’s up over 55% for me. Dental suppliers might be on a similar pattern. Big Pharma over represents the HC sector. There are a bunch of $100 billion market cap names in drugs.
 
#15,014
#15,014
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Maybe the sector outperformed during the heights of COVID. Possibly the sector has diverged. Big Pharma was maybe outpacing being boosted by vaccines. But those stocks that were highly dependent on elective procedures had lagged (and are either primed to take off or got ahead of proper valuations in 2022). I think that I bought about a year ago and it’s up over 55% for me. Dental suppliers might be on a similar pattern. Big Pharma over represents the HC sector. There are a bunch of $100 billion market cap names in drugs.
Click to expand...
Yes, the right Big Pharmacy are doing ok except Pfizer is an odd bird. I was really thinking more of the Humana, United Health, Elevance type medical insurance type companies are off. Then the therapy companies like Amedisys, Enhabit, Encompass, etc are all also dragging.

With older Americans and Democrats having control in two branches, would expect all those type companies to have better second half of years.

Of course, much money has flowed back into technology so that may be weighting down health.

Never considered dental…that is interesting thought.
 
#15,015
#15,015
Jax_Vol said:
Yes, the right Big Pharmacy are doing ok except Pfizer is an odd bird. I was really thinking more of the Humana, United Health, Elevance type medical insurance type companies are off. Then the therapy companies like Amedisys, Enhabit, Encompass, etc are all also dragging.

With older Americans and Democrats having control in two branches, would expect all those type companies to have better second half of years.

Of course, much money has flowed back into technology so that may be weighting down health.

Never considered dental…that is interesting thought.
Click to expand...

Insurance is kind of a different animal. They might have a year where they have a lot of claims, but that will quickly be offset with the higher premiums that they will be entitled to charge going forward. Insurance is boring and safer than most industries. At least the well capitalized companies - they might actually benefit from high claims one year because they’ll be charging the higher premiums in every future year.

I haven’t looked at the charts to see how dental names have moved, but:

HSIC (Henry Schein)
XRAY (Dentsply)
ALGN (Align Technologies)
SDC (Smile Direct Club)

I have another dental supply symbol that’s slipped my mind. Maybe it was a diversified medical supplier.

Becton, Dickinson (BD) might be well positioned.

You’d think that Stericycle (SRCL) would do well. But they’ve been poorly managed or maybe unable to compete with Waste Management (WM).
 
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#15,016
#15,016
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Insurance is kind of a different animal. They might have a year where they have a lot of claims, but that will quickly be offset with the higher premiums that they will be entitled to charge going forward. Insurance is boring and safer than most industries. At least the well capitalized companies - they might actually benefit from high claims one year because they’ll be charging the higher premiums in every future year.

I haven’t looked at the charts to see how dental names have moved, but:

HSIC (Henry Schein)
XRAY (Dentsply)
ALGN (Align Technologies)
SDC (Smile Direct Club)

I have another dental supply symbol that’s slipped my mind. Maybe it was a diversified medical supplier.

Becton, Dickinson (BD) might be well positioned.

You’d think that Stericycle (SRCL) would do well. But they’ve been poorly managed or maybe unable to compete with Waste Management (WM).
Click to expand...
I’ve been impressed with Waste Management.
 
#15,017
#15,017
I’m trying to double down on GEHC. I’m waiting on a decline of a little over 5%. Maybe I should do like Buffett and not be concerned with the current price.
 
#15,019
#15,019
Caught SOUN early after hearing about it on CNBC a few weeks ago and it’s been strong steady AI play at a low cost.
 
#15,020
#15,020
Unusual split holiday week coming up. The Christmas/New Years is a bit different since a lot of people shut it down for a week or two (plus the “Eves” extend the actual holidays.

Short day on Monday however. Probably pretty sleepy trading. I’ll try to sell some options, but I prefer selling outs and NOT after equities have been rising for several weeks. Maybe there will be a few names to be found. Something that hasn’t run up. CVS? FedEx?
 
#15,021
#15,021
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Unusual split holiday week coming up. The Christmas/New Years is a bit different since a lot of people shut it down for a week or two (plus the “Eves” extend the actual holidays.

Short day on Monday however. Probably pretty sleepy trading. I’ll try to sell some options, but I prefer selling outs and NOT after equities have been rising for several weeks. Maybe there will be a few names to be found. Something that hasn’t run up. CVS? FedEx?
Click to expand...

Haven't followed them recently, but I like FedEx, Price of fuel has helped them during last quarter. Think UPS is struggling a bit with their labor perhaps? If so, that might help FedEx outlook for the holidays. Always like supporting a Tennessee based company.

Yesterday went about as expected...a snoozefest with the high rollers sitting on a beach. Thinking / hoping, they might ease back into action a bit tomorrow and Thursday with a big uptick on Friday. Being the last day of the month for the index funds to fill quotas, last Friday was very strong and encouraging.
 
#15,025
#15,025
Go aeiou said:
Nutshell:
Seems they are waiting on previous increases to have an effect.
Too much increase can cause big problems.
So we wait.
Click to expand...

Not a bad approach IMO. A dovish stop would heat up the economy pretty quickly. Continuing to hike would create an extended bad economy.

I think that they key is to get the trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines to get working as investment capital in the domestic economy. Ramp up manufacturing and the supporting infrastructure.
 
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