All things STOCKS

#15,053
#15,053
Well, I hope everybody got a seafood tower out of today.

Carvana is a legitimately large business for what it is. The very scary chance of bankruptcy was priced in, and they didn't go bankrupt, so now it's not. Happens all the time to somebody somewhere. Just happened to Carvana that time. They didn't exactly need a turnaround, and they haven't had one. They made a very stupid merger purchase without adult supervision, and it didn't kill them. At least not yet.

I am not saying I would own Carvana stock. No.
 
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#15,054
#15,054
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I just don’t see the reason why there is still a 60% upside available if the deal goes through. Even if it falls apart, it seems like SAVE should be valued around where it is right now.
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I agree. I only have 100 shares so it's not going to matter, but yes, you are totally right.
 
#15,055
#15,055
Firebirdparts said:
I agree. I only have 100 shares so it's not going to matter, but yes, you are totally right.
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I rode it all the way down without selling, but I’m not about to add more. Just give me my dam $31 and I’m out. Maybe even at $29 and I’ll let arbitrageurs have a dollar or two. But with rates for margin and mortgages pushing 10%, the ride to $31 will probably be pretty slow all the way to the end. Another $5-$8 and I’ll feel pretty certain that the deal closing is imminent. The terms aren’t conducive to another bidder to jump in either.
 
#15,056
#15,056
Firebirdparts said:
Carvana is a legitimately large business for what it is. The very scary chance of bankruptcy was priced in, and they didn't go bankrupt, so now it's not. Happens all the time to somebody somewhere. Just happened to Carvana that time. They didn't exactly need a turnaround, and they haven't had one. They made a very stupid merger purchase without adult supervision, and it didn't kill them. At least not yet.
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Makes sense.

But this kind of rally at a time when used car prices are falling? Not so much.
 
#15,060
#15,060
I certainly wouldn't think it's now. That's usually the indication that is IS NOW. Fear/greed index is at extreme greed. Factory orders/industrial demand way way down.

But that said, there's never really a top.
 
#15,063
#15,063
Majors said:
NVDA is climbing again. What the chances it splits again around $600-700?
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I’m kicking myself for selling half of my NVDA shares a month or more ago. BUT … nobody ever always sells at the highs and always buys at the lows. Actually I sold covered calls and then those shares went away. Same thing happened with NFLX. But that self directed IRA is by far my best performing account YTD 2023.

I don’t plan to buy back what I sold, but buying calls is a possibility. I haven’t been long any calls for a very long time.
 
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#15,064
#15,064
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’m kicking myself for selling half of my NVDA shares a month or more ago. BUT … nobody ever always sells at the highs and always buys at the lows. Actually I sold covered calls and then those shares went away. Same thing happened with NFLX. But that self directed IRA is by far my best performing account YTD 2023.

I don’t plan to buy back what I sold, but buying calls is a possibility. I haven’t been long any calls for a very long time.
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I’m kicking myself for getting in not soon enough.
 
#15,065
#15,065
I thought the following article was interesting for those who invest in the pharmaceutical industry. It tracks the origin of all the new drugs approved from 2015-2021 for the top 20 pharma companies and whether they were originally discovered in-house or via acquisition/licensing of smaller biotech. Pharma companies live and die by their ability to generate new drugs so they need to be successful both in-house development and also in acquisition. An analogy to college football - the most successful teams are probably those that build via both high school recruiting and the transfer portal. For transparency, I like Novo and Pfizer and have stock in Novo.

Investigating the origins of recent pharmaceutical innovation
 
#15,066
#15,066
Looks like we're going broadly green here except for certain telecoms.

I am always tempted to buy on dumb news as we see on the telecoms today but i don't have any money so I won't be doing that.
 
#15,067
#15,067
Firebirdparts said:
Looks like we're going broadly green here except for certain telecoms.

I am always tempted to buy on dumb news as we see on the telecoms today but i don't have any money so I won't be doing that.
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ATT- my most disappointing long term investment. Bought twice as it declined. Lower now than it was in 1993.
 
#15,069
#15,069
I’ve always avoided selling put options if the stock has been running up. But **** fahr the NFLX premiums for this Friday are really looking attractive. Stock is $450 but the $425 put is $8.50. Earnings come out after the Wednesday close. The big players might know something.
 
#15,072
#15,072
Jax_Vol said:
Why has healthcare gotten the chit kicked out of itself this year?

I guess the index is actually running around 0% gain, but the ones I follow are down 20% or more. Like PFE is a good example.
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PFE is maybe just giving back its COVID gains. People aren’t getting vaccines and treatment as they were. And the 7x p/e seems overdone to me. Maybe it’s simply out of favor and under attack from program selling.

Big Pharma is always a target of politicians (Rs and Ds). Especially as the elections are coming into range. It’s not an ideal business model to charge considerably more to Americans versus the rest of the world. Insurance and government programs might not be letting the disparity continue.

ISRG has done well. Equities related to elective procedures could be emerging from multi-year pressure created by COVID.

I don’t know if it is everywhere, but emergency rooms are again packed as they were a couple of years ago. If you aren’t dying in Knoxville you’ll be sitting in the ER waiting rooms for hours. That’s possibly due to a nursing shortage as well or more so.
 
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