All things STOCKS

#15,076
#15,076
Wild ride today. The NFLX P 7/21 $425s that I sold a week or two ago were in the cross hairs today. NFLX was just under or barely over $425 every time I looked. Then it finally pushed well above $425 as today’s session was winding down. I wanted to sell the $422.5s for 8/4 or 8/11 today, but didn’t want to own too many shares if I was to be assigned after today’s close. Hopefully the huge NFLX premiums will still be there on Monday. But the premiums will still be there. Just maybe not the best strike.

I’m still short some August UPS puts. Their labor unrest creates great premiums. But also anxiety.

I’d like to short NVDA puts as well, but I think the shares might could pull way back in the coming weeks.
 
#15,079
#15,079
Velo Vol said:
Is it a good time to consider XHE?

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XHE isn’t a real big fund ($40 million) and is thinly traded. I’d instead look at the annual report and pick one or two names from their list of investments.

I’m not sure if they’re all in XHE, but the bigger equipment companies interest me. MDT. ISRG. SYK. BSX. Plus DXCM and GEHC which are under under $50B market cap. I especially like GEHC. MDT used to be a great stock but seems kind of stuck. Any of those names could get squashed by somebody like JNJ but could also pop if targeted for a takeover.

I like XLV for a long term hold in the HC sector. The demographics will be great for decades. However it is heavily weighted to big pharma.

I like CURE as a tradable fund, but unlike typical 3x leveraged funds I like to hold it for the long term. That isn’t an advisable strategy. They warn that it is a short term trading vehicle.

I think that the healthcare sector will do well for decades. Buying high quality names is the way to go IMO. I do avoid hospitals and pharma companies that don’t have a broad lineup of drugs under patent.
 
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#15,081
#15,081
I really like industrial type of companies for the next 10-20 years. We should never be held hostage by (or be dependent on) other countries for inputs into our economy. Everything related. Energy. Rails. Manufacturers. Materials. Construction and engineering. Logistics. Some valuations might be well ahead right now, but as Warren Buffett preaches - buy great businesses. The price paid is subordinate to what those companies do and how well they are managed.
 
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#15,083
#15,083
Velo Vol said:
That's what I meant. A big healthcare ETF. Not the equipment.

It seems relative to other sectors this might be a better time to buy, if we're looking ahead to an economic slowdown.
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This probably isn’t the best time to buy equities with a 6-9 month holding period. Anytime can work if short term trading. Next year being the POTUS election cycle along with the strong possibility of the Fed winding down rate hikes kind of sets up 2-5 years or more as a good time frame. The rest of this year might not be ideal for the averages (although stock picking outside of the magnificent 7 could work). MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOGL, META, TSLA, and AAPL have had an overwhelming impact on indexes/averages. Fund managers are about to lighten up on them and rebalance. The smaller tiers might be a better idea until all of that winds down. But again, as Warren says, buy great businesses.
 
#15,084
#15,084
Velo Vol said:
That's what I meant. A big healthcare ETF. Not the equipment.

It seems relative to other sectors this might be a better time to buy, if we're looking ahead to an economic slowdown.
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Some of the individual names are so diversified that they are much like funds. JNJ especially. JNJ is currently under pressure with the talc lawsuits, but that could create a buying opportunity. MMM is another. Litigation crushes share prices and it drags on for a long time even though estimated reserves are created and hit the financials (even if only as footnotes) very quickly.
 
#15,086
#15,086
I was really surprised that JPM, AMZN, and Buffett’s healthcare initiative fell apart 2 and a half years ago. It’s an industry in need of being reimagined but it’s the same old same old. When insurance companies, big pharma, the AMA, and the government have the cartel it won’t easily be improved.

Then there are the clinics and Walmarts/CVS/Walgreens stepping in to take away only the highly profitable pieces. Hospitals get stuck with having to make the other stuff work while the most profitable parts go to those other businesses.

Healthcare is one thing that I believe AAPL will successfully add to their mix. They are so large that healthcare alone won’t do a lot, but adding it to their entire universe makes it work even better. Wearables monitor your health while using their other products to stay connected makes them a vital part of people’s lives. All of that enhances the viability of monthly subscriptions to their services. I’ve been resisting getting the “not free” levels of iCloud, but I’m sure I’ll be signing up soon. MSFT/GOOGL will be an alternative version. I wonder if AMZN makes another push into healthcare?
 
#15,087
#15,087
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I was really surprised that JPM, AMZN, and Buffett’s healthcare initiative fell apart 2 and a half years ago. It’s an industry in need of being reimagined but it’s the same old same old. When insurance companies, big pharma, the AMA, and the government have the cartel it won’t easily be improved.

Then there are the clinics and Walmarts/CVS/Walgreens stepping in to take away only the highly profitable pieces. Hospitals get stuck with having to make the other stuff work while the most profitable parts go to those other businesses.

Healthcare is one thing that I believe AAPL will successfully add to their mix. They are so large that healthcare alone won’t do a lot, but adding it to their entire universe makes it work even better. Wearables monitor your health while using their other products to stay connected makes them a vital part of people’s lives. All of that enhances the viability of monthly subscriptions to their services. I’ve been resisting getting the “not free” levels of iCloud, but I’m sure I’ll be signing up soon. MSFT/GOOGL will be an alternative version. I wonder if AMZN makes another push into healthcare?
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AMZN way over extended as is. If not careful, that will be our next General Electric.
 
#15,088
#15,088
Jax_Vol said:
AMZN way over extended as is. If not careful, that will be our next General Electric.
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GE took about 20 years off but seem to be getting their **** together again. At least the sum of the parts. They’re really a different company now. No GE Capital or RCA/NBC. More focused in healthcare, aerospace/aviation, and power generation. They’ll benefit going forward with the push for Made in the USA. The GE of 20 years ago wouldn’t fly with today’s labor force. Firing 10% of their employees every year just to intimidate the rest would implode on them. Jack Welch was a POS that benefited from the finance division doing so well.

Amazon benefited a great deal by being complicit in evading state and local sales tax as they grew into a large business. That benefit has been wiped out but AWS keeps them highly relevant and the retail side benefits from being more of a middleman than an actual retailer. They don’t have the risk of carrying much inventory relative to their sales volume. AMZN is kind of a 50/50 logistics and tech company. But they get labeled as a retailer.
 
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#15,089
#15,089
Thunder Good-Oil said:
GE took about 20 years off but seem to be getting their **** together again. At least the sum of the parts. They’re really a different company now. No GE Capital or RCA/NBC. More focused in healthcare, aerospace/aviation, and power generation. They’ll benefit going forward with the push for Made in the USA. The GE of 20 years ago wouldn’t fly with today’s labor force. Firing 10% of their employees every year just to intimidate the rest would implode on them. Jack Welch was a POS that benefited from the finance division doing so well.

Amazon benefited a great deal by being complicit in evading state and local sales tax as they grew into a large business. That benefit has been wiped out but AWS keeps them highly relevant and the retail side benefits from being more of a middleman than an actual retailer. They don’t have the risk of carrying much inventory relative to their sales volume. AMZN is kind of a 50/50 logistics and tech company. But they get labeled as a retailer.
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Jack Welch is probably the most overrated business figure of the past 100 years. He also was a POS as a person.
 
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#15,090
#15,090
I actually read his book one time when I was a houseguest somewhere, and exactly my thought was "what an idiot". He had no idea how stupid he was. At the time, GE was manufacturing fake earnings all the time based on the adjustments and "special items" and it was evident. That was more daringly done before the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (Enron).
 
#15,091
#15,091
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Then there are the clinics and Walmarts/CVS/Walgreens stepping in to take away only the highly profitable pieces. Hospitals get stuck with having to make the other stuff work while the most profitable parts go to those other businesses.
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Not really even anecdotal, but I spend more time than I cared to in a CVS the last two months trying to get a prescription refill (methotrexate shortage) and I don't see anyone using the minute clinic.
 
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#15,092
#15,092
Firebirdparts said:
I actually read his book one time when I was a houseguest somewhere, and exactly my thought was "what an idiot". He had no idea how stupid he was. At the time, GE was manufacturing fake earnings all the time based on the adjustments and "special items" and it was evident. That was more daringly done before the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (Enron).
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He used a non-stop stream on M&A to throw everyone off the trail. Then, within last two weeks of quarter, he would have GE Capital pencil whip some numbers such that always met or exceeded expectations.

IMO, Jack Welch is a lower lifeform than Bernie Madoff
 
#15,099
#15,099
Mueller (MLI) posted a lower bottom line versus a year ago and fell 10%. Great company and a great stock. Buying opportunity for a single digit p/e stock.

There are going to be a lot of stocks taking hits as they post earnings with difficult comparisons versus Q2-2022.
 
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#15,100
#15,100
RTX is another high quality stock/company that took a 10% hit today. Still has a 23x p/e though.

Problems with possible contaminated engine parts at Pratt & Whitney. They aren’t panicking and doing immediate inspections. Unless there is an incident, kind of overdone IMO.

SIRI is falling like a rock. John Malone is eff’g with the capital structure (again) and that always seems to not end well for individual investors.
 
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