All things STOCKS

#15,206
#15,206
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I was today years old when I seen it.

Donnie Tyndal for sure said it. Maybe Dooley and Kiffin as well. But ESPN hates us so it probably started over there. Maybe with Slobbering Lou Holtz.
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The pronunciation is a good way to tell someone is new.
 
#15,207
#15,207
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I was today years old when I seen it.

Donnie Tyndal for sure said it. Maybe Dooley and Kiffin as well. But ESPN hates us so it probably started over there. Maybe with Slobbering Lou Holtz.
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I tried to get an auto license plate with goaeiou on it about 20-25 years ago, but I was told it was already taken.
I just looked on the TN Dept of Transportation website, and goaeiou is available. At least that is my understanding.
I'll stick with my boring random plate.
 
#15,209
#15,209
Go aeiou said:
I tried to get an auto license plate with goaeiou on it about 20-25 years ago, but I was told it was already taken.
I just looked on the TN Dept of Transportation website, and goaeiou is available. At least that is my understanding.
I'll stick with my boring random plate.
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:(
 
#15,213
#15,213
Small caps (that don’t close down) perform very well coming out of recessions. But then again, maybe we’ve not had one.

S&P earnings need to take off to reignite this market. The 2024 growth is already priced in so there’s not much down the road to jump start the equity averages. Too much “normality” with companies selling for the high 20s multiples and the 30s, 40s, etc.

S&P 500 multiples:

IMG_6647.jpeg
 
#15,214
#15,214
Velo Vol said:
That was a typo. IWM.

At the time a number of people were talking about a rotation from the big stocks to smaller. So much for that idea.
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The new environment is massive amounts of data being fed into the automated traded platforms and markets are moving a lot on everything. The retail investors are just along for the ride. Although the few high frequency traders that have figured it out should be piling up some substantial gains.

A big question right now is will rates normalize with the ST falling or by the LT rising? The latter would be a challenge for the economy to have a healthy recovery in the next year or two. Also can inflation be around 3% with good employment numbers?

My trading now is mostly limited to finding better entry points for LT holds. Good companies that have taken hits. And the p/e multiples under 20x are luring me in. Especially the single digit P/Es.
 
#15,215
#15,215
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Small caps (that don’t close down) perform very well coming out of recessions. But then again, maybe we’ve not had one.
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The long-term IWM versus SPY chart shows that the former is near a historic bottom, suggesting it might do relatively better than the S&P500.

Of course that doesn't mean it will go up. It might just go down less. Or it could be that "this time things are different."
 
#15,216
#15,216
Everybody's got their own gurney to push, but what I see in chemical company earnings, globally, is demand is off. Everybody is still preparing for slow sales of consumer goods or else having them. China is obviously in a severe recession/depression, lots of unemployment, but I don't know that really affects us all that much. It should allow us to import deflation from them if we buy stuff from them.

North American car sales are well below pre-pandemic levels but not at depression levels.

Bond yields are still inverted and that means banks will continue to be strained.

Earnings will pop but it's not happening this year I don't guess.
 
#15,217
#15,217
Firebirdparts said:
Everybody's got their own gurney to push, but what I see in chemical company earnings, globally, is demand is off. Everybody is still preparing for slow sales of consumer goods or else having them. China is obviously in a severe recession/depression, lots of unemployment, but I don't know that really affects us all that much. It should allow us to import deflation from them if we buy stuff from them.

North American car sales are well below pre-pandemic levels but not at depression levels.

Bond yields are still inverted and that means banks will continue to be strained.

Earnings will pop but it's not happening this year I don't guess.
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Theory 1: The market was way ahead of itself and we're in a normal, healthy 5-10% correction.

Theory 2: A recession is coming along with another bear market.

Not sure where the line of demarcation is between the two.
 
#15,219
#15,219
The price of coal in lower in China, I can tell you that.

Commodities experience supply and demand separately and they'll act accordingly like they always do.
 
#15,221
#15,221
Firebirdparts said:
The price of coal in lower in China, I can tell you that.

Commodities experience supply and demand separately and they'll act accordingly like they always do.
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Maybe this will be very good for us. China is raw material poor so the demand that they create makes our manufacturing industries have a harder time competing. But then the cheap crap that they make made things more affordable for the US consumers. US manufacturing gets hammered on both ends of the equation. But China is only good at the middle of the road value adding processing. Their high end stuff isn’t very good (when considering that they are simply manufacturing components and assembling our high end tech stuff).

Keep the government stimulating the building up of manufacturing and infrastructure rehab here and Mexico (and to a limited degree in places like India and Vietnam). Eff the CCP.

BTW, Smith & Wesson is about to open their Blount County HQ.
 
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#15,224
#15,224
INTC and Israeli semiconductor Tower (TSEM) scuttled their deal for Intel to acquire Tower as a result of China's regulatory arm dragging it's feet to approve. Intel now must pay Tower a $353M "break up" fee. I'm sure it has something to do with international agreements within the semiconductor industry, but this isn't the first time Chinese regulators have held up a US merger with another company. Now that it is obviously a pattern by the Chinese, the US should work to remove them from having any regulatory authority at all wrt a US merger with a foreign owned company. I'm sure this is tit for tat, but I can't seem to find why China has the regulatory authority it does where their single NO vote outweighs the YES votes of Europe and the rest of the known world.
 
#15,225
#15,225
Vol737 said:
INTC and Israeli semiconductor Tower (TSEM) scuttled their deal for Intel to acquire Tower as a result of China's regulatory arm dragging it's feet to approve. Intel now must pay Tower a $353M "break up" fee. I'm sure it has something to do with international agreements within the semiconductor industry, but this isn't the first time Chinese regulators have held up a US merger with another company. Now that it is obviously a pattern by the Chinese, the US should work to remove them from having any regulatory authority at all wrt a US merger with a foreign owned company. I'm sure this is tit for tat, but I can't seem to find why China has the regulatory authority it does where their single NO vote outweighs the YES votes of Europe and the rest of the known world.
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Probably because if we tell them “tough **** “ then they’ll block our sales to their one billion consumers. But when you do the math, we are a net importer when trading with China. Something’s going on that isn’t in the best interests of the US as a whole. Good for Apple and AAPL shareholders. Not good for most things America.
 
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