All things STOCKS

#15,252
#15,252
BigOrangeMojo said:
I like bottom fishing but hard pass here...
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Currently a falling knife. But it will be tradable once the exposure to litigation and the cash position becomes clear. I would expect a dividend cut or elimination is coming. Which makes holding a utility kind of useless. But I’d speculate that it moves too far in both directions.
 
#15,253
#15,253
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Currently a falling knife. But it will be tradable once the exposure to litigation and the cash position becomes clear. I would expect a dividend cut or elimination is coming. Which makes holding a utility kind of useless. But I’d speculate that it moves too far in both directions.
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Smaller fires bankrupted much larger utilities in CA. And Hawaii is very liberal/anti big business like CA.

The best case likely involves a multi-year dividend cut and increased debt load (at these much higher rates). At best, I see a doubling to ~$30 5 years from now. A 14% annual return doesn't justify the most likely outcome (i.e., restructuring)

Might be fun to trade but no way do I want this long term.
 
#15,254
#15,254
There’s PG&E fear and paranoia plaguing HE. Down by 2/3rds very quickly.

There aren’t many options available on HE. 27 and 62 days to expiration are the nearest.
 
#15,255
#15,255
BigOrangeMojo said:
Smaller fires bankrupted much larger utilities in CA. And Hawaii is very liberal/anti big business like CA.

The best case likely involves a multi-year dividend cut and increased debt load (at these much higher rates). At best, I see a doubling to ~$30 5 years from now. A 14% annual return doesn't justify the most likely outcome (i.e., restructuring)

Might be fun to trade but no way do I want this long term.
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“Speculation” and LT holds aren’t in the same universe. Speculation involves far more risk.
 
#15,263
#15,263
Velo Vol said:
Some people are saying the 10y could hit 5%+, but in the world today, 2023, how long could it stay at that level? That would have the mortgage rates at 8 or 9%, right?
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That’s only a shocking interest rate because of rates being near zero for almost a generation. In the late 70s mortgages were in the mid teens. But inflation was considerably higher. And when Carter left office unemployment was very high as well. High interest rates. High inflation. High unemployment. The trifecta.
 
#15,264
#15,264
Thunder Good-Oil said:
That’s only a shocking interest rate because of rates being near zero for almost a generation. In the late 70s mortgages were in the mid teens. But inflation was considerably higher. And when Carter left office unemployment was very high as well. High interest rates. High inflation. High unemployment. The trifecta.
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Yes, but since the Great Recession we're at the high end of rates. Hard for me to believe today's Fed will keep up QT, etc., at the first sign of a recession.
 
#15,265
#15,265
Velo Vol said:
Some people are saying the 10y could hit 5%+, but in the world today, 2023, how long could it stay at that level? That would have the mortgage rates at 8 or 9%, right?
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We got married in 1981. Mortgage rates were 18.5%. We bought a home a few days before we got married, and we very happy to get a wrap around mortgage at 10.5%. Wrap around mortgages were common as it made home sales possible.
So todays rates seem more normal than near zero rates of the last several years.
 
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#15,266
#15,266
Milehigh_Vol said:
Do you think that lower birth rate is the downward pressure of student loans and housing though? I know I did not have kids till I considered myself stable. Having a looming debt and unstable housing would cause me not to have children.
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Clearly not.

Without people, there's not really the driver for economic "growth" as we typically think of it in the rich world. In Africa, sure, there would be, but they have a birth rate of 6 anyway. Fortunately, in the USA we can get people any time we want.
 
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#15,267
#15,267
Firebirdparts said:
Clearly not.

Without people, there's not really the driver for economic "growth" as we typically think of it in the rich world. In Africa, sure, there would be, but they have a birth rate of 6 anyway. Fortunately, in the USA we can get people any time we want.
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What?

It takes 9 months to make a person. 18 years to make them useful. Are you saying that if we don't have children to let people in that will?

I am confused.
 
#15,268
#15,268
Go aeiou said:
We got married in 1981. Mortgage rates were 18.5%. We bought a home a few days before we got married, and we very happy to get a wrap around mortgage at 10.5%. Wrap around mortgages were common as it made home sales possible.
So todays rates seem more normal than near zero rates of the last several years.
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What has been the general trend of them ever since then?

1692648665091.png
 
#15,269
#15,269
Velo Vol said:
What has been the general trend of them ever since then?

View attachment 571239
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Yeah, bad timing, but we were lucky to get 10.5%
And, the marriage has lasted 42+ years.

Martgage rates: Mostly between 5-10%
Historical-30-Year-Mortgage-Rates-1971-2023.png
 
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#15,273
#15,273
Go aeiou said:
I don't see much change either way. Their price is based on future expectations.

Sorry, I guess $450 is pretty close to yesterdays close.
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I see it teetering $505-515 today if the call is promising. I don’t see the last earnings call and the skyrocket boost.
 
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