All things STOCKS

[TC 83]

I got FSD given to me free for a month from Tesla. The robo taxis are coming and if Tesla is the big beneficiary then they’re going to make tons of money. It’s scary good. Haven’t once felt compelled to takeover and it handled every finicky situation very well. I thought I’d never feel comfortable with but I was really surprised at how safe it did feel. Really handy when trying to scarf down breakfast on the way to work

 

[Velo Vol]

I’ve held a little ARKF, ARKG, ARKK, and ARKW since Q1/Q2 2022. Only ARKW has a gain. I’m holding (I’m patient to a fault). IMO those ETFs will double or triple in the next bull market. They hold a lot of small cap names and I think they’ll be rotated into as the Mag 7 money looks for other options.

I don't rule out this possibility, but they could double and I'd still be down.

Regardless, some of the predictions she makes in the media are completely unrealistic within her time frames.

She sold Nvidia and has made other unforced errors.

The robo taxis are coming and if Tesla is the big beneficiary then they’re going to make tons of money.

Soon?

 

[Go aeiou]

Are you comfortable doing so at this price?

Yep! Wish I'd bought more. These trades were on Monday, 4-22.

Account: 1289
Transaction type: Buy
Order type: Limit
Security: NVIDIA CORP (NVDA)
Quantity: 5 share(s)
Price:* $774.24

Account: 3009
Transaction type: Buy
Order type: Limit
Security: NVIDIA CORP (NVDA)
Quantity: 3 share(s)
Price:* $773.19

 

[Go aeiou]

Meet Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, the man behind the $2 trillion company powering today's artificial intelligence

Jensen Huang leads Nvidia – a tech company with a skyrocketing stock and the most advanced technology for artificial intelligence.

www.cbsnews.com

View attachment 637487

On a personal level, I sure wish the AI drug development capabilities would speed along more effective treatments for autoimmune conditions.

It's frustrating taking $$$$ drugs that don't help much, or help for a while, then lose their effectiveness.

Those drugs will probaby be $40k/year in US.

 

[Velo Vol]

Those drugs will probaby be $40k/year in US.

I'm currently trying Rinvoq, with a sticker price more than that. It's crazy.

 

[Velo Vol]

 

[Jax_Vol]

I don't rule out this possibility, but they could double and I'd still be down.

Regardless, some of the predictions she makes in the media are completely unrealistic within her time frames.

She sold Nvidia and has made other unforced errors.

Soon?

It's called 'Telsa Time' for a reason....lol! Pretty sure that Cathie is on Elon's under the table payroll.

Eli Lilly discusses earnings tomorrow morning. Would be surprised if they didn't slay in past three months with miracle weight loss meds. However, seeing the post above that McDonald's is down is concerning. Thinking that if Mickey D's is selling burgers then LLY is producing Mounjaro,

 

[Velo Vol]

Eli Lilly discusses earnings tomorrow morning. Would be surprised if they didn't slay in past three months with miracle weight loss meds. However, seeing the post above that McDonald's is down is concerning. Thinking that if Mickey D's is selling burgers then LLY is producing Mounjaro,

The drug is decreasing people's consumption.

There's a hedge idea. Weight loss drugs versus fast food.

 

[05_never_again]

Cathie Wood is the most overrated manager of all time....

She has one 18 month run of overperformamce (where every idiot made tons of $$$) wrapped around years of excessive underperformance....

She has more in common with a cult leader (or more charitably, the leader of a philosophical movement) than an investment manager. Her old boss at AB even said that she was a horrible risk manager. Good researcher, but horrible risk manager.

 

[Jax_Vol]

She has more in common with a cult leader (or more charitably, the leader of a philosophical movement) than an investment manager. Her old boss at AB even said that she was a horrible risk manager. Good researcher, but horrible risk manager.

Yeah, she was hot there for a year or two.

Now, seems like she has a hard time unloading the bad picks. Like an emotional attachment or such. She talks about looking at things for ten years out. That sounds peachy in principle but seems too far sided for my taste.

 

[05_never_again]

Yeah, she was hot there for a year or two.

Now, seems like she has a hard time unloading the bad picks. Like an emotional attachment or such. She talks about looking at things for ten years out. That sounds peachy in principle but seems too far sided for my taste.

It's because she's fine as an analyst or research person. I mean, she ended up being right about a lot of what she said about disruptors/innovators, but her problem is that she is a true believer. Too ideologically attached to the thesis, and she does not have portfolio management skills. The longer time goes on, I wonder if she conflated the two (i.e., if you're a good analyst, you can be a good PM). Trading and investing are no places for ideologues.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

ARKK is negative the past 5 years. The QQQ has more than doubled.

Cathie Wood is absolute trash as a manager...

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

A huge bull market, the AI explosion, cloud computing, the technological revolution from COVID

Amd ARKK is negative over the past 5 years....

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

ARK funds aren’t where to allocate a high percentage of net worth since they are highly levered to the economy. But they aren’t a bad place for individuals to be with their high risk capital after markets have pulled way back. About one of every 3 years ARK has a year of near triple digit returns..

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

ARK funds aren’t where to allocate a high percentage of net worth since they are highly levered to the economy. But they aren’t a bad place for individuals to be with their high risk capital after markets have pulled way back. About one of every 3 years ARK has a year of near triple digit returns..

I wouldnt dare put any long term cash in ARKK. 9/10 years of extreme underperformance when QQQ has doubled twice isn't my idea..

Short-term trading after pullbacks. Sure.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I wouldnt dare put any long term cash in ARKK. 9/10 years of extreme underperformance when QQQ has doubled twice isn't my idea..

Short-term trading after pullbacks. Sure.

I wouldn’t make comparisons of ARK funds to the QQQs. I doubt that 25% of the names are in both.

I don’t know if her philosophy is evolving, but it seems like she picks up a lot of companies with very high earnings multiples and looks for a handful of 5x, 10x, etc performers. Plus she’s a huge TSLA sheep (or at least was during the early 2020s run up).

I wouldn’t want to hold during bear markets or indications of coming bear markets. This might be a good time to dip in.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

ARKK top 10 holdings. About 60% of the fund. Several were way oversold - but still might have crazy P/Es.

TSLA TESLA INC $715,004,803.63 10.95%

COIN COINBASE GLOBAL INC -CLASS A $619,276,087.36 9.48%

ROKU ROKU INC $534,158,442.30 8.18%

SQ BLOCK INC $444,216,967.60 6.80%

PATH UIPATH INC - CLASSA $370,054,726.58 5.67%

CRSP CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG $300,603,885.12 4.60%

RBLX ROBLOX CORP -CLASS A $290,851,329.60 4.45%

HOOD ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC - A $276,440,820.48 4.23%

ZM ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS-A $256,460,954.00 3.93%

U UNITY SOFTWARE INC $221,329,263.97 3.39%

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

COIN, SQ, and HOOD. Not your grandmother’s financials. Gaming. Streaming. Robotics. DNA pharma. Video conferencing.

TSLA might be the most mainstream company in the list.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Per Fidelity mutual fund screener, there are well over 1,000 funds in the following sectors

Large Growth
Small Growth
Mid Cap Growth
Technology

Only 1 has lost money in the past 5 years...

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Per Fidelity mutual fund screener, there are well over 1,000 funds in the following sectors

Large Growth
Small Growth
Mid Cap Growth
Technology

Only 1 has lost money in the past 5 years...

That sounds suspect since ARKK was $48 five years ago and is $45 today. But that’s just share price - not returns after dividend and capital gain distributions. The components don’t look like dividend payers and the cap gains distributions depend on the fund manager’s trades.

In a year or two the 5 year performance will be really bad as the fund shares ran way up pre-COVID and early COVID and then gave it all back.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

That sounds suspect since ARKK was $48 five years ago and is $45 today. But that’s just share price - not returns after dividend and capital gain distributions. The components don’t look like dividend payers and the cap gains distributions depend on the fund manager’s trades.

In a year or two the 5 year performance will be really bad as the fund shares ran way up pre-COVID and early COVID and then gave it all back.

Total ARKK returns is -1.0% annualized for past 5 years. I think they've have paid fairly limited dividends/capital gain distributions.

In the past 5 years and since inception (almost 10), ARKK has been in the bottom 1%.

And it's not like Coinbase, Tesla, Roku, Zoom, Square, Roblox, Shopify are tiny, unknown companies. They are 50% of ARKK.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Total ARKK returns is -1.0% annualized for past 5 years. I think they've has little to no dividends/capital gain distributions.

In the past 5 years and since inception (almost 10), ARKK has been in the bottom 1%.

And it's not like Coinbase, Tesla, Roku, Zoom, Square, Roblox, Shopify are tiny, unknown companies. They are 50% of ARKK.

They’re all fairly new companies. COIN and HOOD are highly (positively) correlated to crypto. Wood has a quarter of her personal wealth in Bitcoin.

What does “Only 1 (of well over 1,000 funds) has lost money in the past 5 years” mean? Cumulative or negative in each of 5 years individually? I find it hard to believe that only one fund, that’s been basically flat, has lost money. Did the Fidelity screener exclude those that are negative?

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Average annual return. I added health care and aggressive allocation to tech, small growth, mid cap growth, large growth. 1,166 mutual funds screened and 1,164 made money in the last 5 years...

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

ARKW has many of the same names as top holdings except is also 10% Bitcoin. It’s had a good recent return.

Company Ticker CUSIP Shares Market Value ($) Weight (%)

ARK BITCOIN ETF HOLDCO (ARKW) MM0051EWE 2,480,644 $158,066,635.68 10.16%

COINBASE GLOBAL INC -CLASS A COIN 19260Q107 625,350 $147,782,712.00 9.50%

BLOCK INC SQ 852234103 1,691,917 $126,013,978.16 8.10%

ROKU INC ROKU 77543R102 2,225,022 $125,379,989.70 8.06%

TESLA INC TSLA 88160R101 732,459 $123,265,525.11 7.92%

ROBLOX CORP -CLASS A RBLX 771049103 2,042,337 $73,544,555.37 4.73%

ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC - A HOOD 770700102 3,693,416 $66,038,278.08 4.24%

UNITY SOFTWARE INC U 91332U101 2,484,711 $59,956,076.43 3.85%

UIPATH INC - CLASS A PATH 90364P105 2,729,988 $53,125,566.48 3.41%

DRAFTKINGS INC-CL A DKNG UW 26142V105 1,105,200 $47,667,276.00 3.06%

META PLATFORMS INC-CLASS A META 30303M102 106,311 $47,126,603.19 3.03%

PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC-A PLTR 69608A108 1,615,612 $36,383,582.24 2.34%

GENIUS SPORTS LTD GENI G3934V109 6,860,797 $35,607,536.43 2.29%

CLOUDFLARE INC - CLASS A NET 18915M107 380,053 $33,448,464.53 2.15%

ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS-A ZM 98980L101 513,643 $31,845,866.00 2.05%

TRADE DESK INC/THE -CLASS A TTD 88339J105 355,995 $30,163,456.35 1.94%

SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY SA SPOT L8681T102 102,482 $29,677,762.38 1.91%

SHOPIFY INC - CLASS A SHOP 82509L107 387,729 $27,656,709.57 1.78%

PAGERDUTY INC PD 69553P100 1,239,658 $25,822,076.14 1.66%

CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS INC - A CRWD 22788C105 80,204 $24,387,630.28 1.57%

PURE STORAGE INC - CLASS A PSTG 74624M102 425,841 $22,548,280.95 1.45%

PINTEREST INC- CLASS A PINS 72352L106 611,322 $20,760,495.12 1.33%

NEXTDOOR HOLDINGS INC KIND 65345M108 9,438,451 $19,065,671.02 1.23%

TELADOC HEALTH INC TDOC 87918A105 1,411,187 $18,359,542.87 1.18%

TOAST INC-CLASS A TOST 888787108 690,232 $16,503,447.12 1.06%

MERCADOLIBRE INC MELI 58733R102 11,253 $15,821,718.00 1.02%

 

[Jax_Vol]

It's called 'Telsa Time' for a reason....lol! Pretty sure that Cathie is on Elon's under the table payroll.

Eli Lilly discusses earnings tomorrow morning. Would be surprised if they didn't slay in past three months with miracle weight loss meds. However, seeing the post above that McDonald's is down is concerning. Thinking that if Mickey D's is selling burgers then LLY is producing Mounjaro,

Eli Lily up 7% in the pre-market. The miracle weight loss drug is selling quite well.

May not be McDonalds, but apparently someone is selling a bunch of fast food.