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#15,803
#15,803
I usually don’t care about stock splits - but the CNBC commentators like it a lot because it will bring in more buyers. You also only need $10k instead of $10k to sell covered calls and sell cash reserved puts.
 
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#15,813
#15,813
Majors said:
It’s almost as if it’s NVDA and then everyone else in the market.
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It’s been a Mag 7 bull market for a couple of years. MSFT has also done well lately with the AI theme. It’s about time for interest to rotate over to AAPL - they’ve probably lagged because they were too dependent on China manufacturing and consumers. Long term it’s good that they are adjusting to life with less China.

TSLA’s been dead money. Grand plans but apparently they’re not going to grow horizontally away from being a disruptive automobile company too easily.

GOOGL and Meta (FB) sell a lot more advertising in a robust economy.

AMZN seems best positioned for world dominance of the M7.
 
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#15,814
#15,814
Will be interesting to see how far the NVDA rocket can go. Lots of apparent financial experts on CNBC and YouTube are of the opinion it’s still got a lot of legs in it before it begins to cool.
 
#15,815
#15,815
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It’s been a Mag 7 bull market for a couple of years. MSFT has also done well lately with the AI theme. It’s about time for interest to rotate over to AAPL - they’ve probably lagged because they were too dependent on China manufacturing and consumers. Long term it’s good that they are adjusting to life with less China.

TSLA’s been dead money. Grand plans but apparently they’re not going to grow horizontally away from being a disruptive automobile company too easily.

GOOGL and Meta (FB) sell a lot more advertising in a robust economy.

AMZN seems best positioned for world dominance of the M7.
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I don't have any AMZN. Should I create a position and get in??
 
#15,816
#15,816
Granola said:
I don't have any AMZN. Should I create a position and get in??
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There are a lot of reasons why I really like AMZN and expect it to be a core position, long term hold for me. But it does sell for over 50x earnings (which are growing significantly) and about 3x sales. Earnings have also been slowed as they invested heavily in building out their distribution infrastructure.

Amazon Web Services is an elite part of their business. There could be a great deal of unlocked value present with AWS folded into their overall operation.

I like the way that they offer incentives to upgrade to Prime (subscription) memberships. Costco has a business model of basically selling near cost and their membership fees make up the bulk of their profits. AMZN is a bit different though as the video offerings and free shipping are expensive.

I also like that the cost and risk of most of their “inventory” is a burden on their partners rather than Amazon itself. I haven’t drilled down into their balance sheet, but I suspect that their inventory as a percent of sales is much lower than Walmart and the rest of the retail universe.

They don’t pay a dividend, so it’s a good stock to park in a taxable account as a long term hold.
 
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#15,817
#15,817
Good to see NVDA hold on to yesterday’s gains this morning.

They might underperform for a quarter or two. They have an Osborne Effect situation developing a bit. It shouldn’t be too severe, but they depend on just a handful of customers for nearly half their revenue. Those customers would prefer to hold off and go with the major chip upgrade coming later this year. But NVDA can also manage that with their leverage - cancel orders on the current chips and lose your spot at the front of the line for the next, better/faster upgraded versions.

AI will sustain their order backlog for quite a while.

Osborne effect - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
#15,818
#15,818
Granola said:
I don't have any AMZN. Should I create a position and get in??
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Thunder and I have disagreed on this one before.

In the long haul, I'm of the opinion that Microsoft Azure will win out over AWS.

With Bezos retired and focused on a new wife, I think AMZN is a mid-tier pick. I cover them thru growth mutual funds.
 
#15,819
#15,819
Bill Gates is retired and Paul Allen is dead.

There’s plenty of room for Azure AND AWS.

MSFT’s legacy revenue stream is PCs running Windows. AMZN’s legacy revenue of online retailing still has massive room to grow.

It isn’t one or the other. Neither one is going away. Amazon is innovative in more businesses and has been more aggressive at disrupting their cost centers. I’d pick AMZN for the long haul if I had to go with only one of the two.

Right now I’d rank the business models of the Mag 7 in order:

1) AMZN
2) AAPL
3) NVDA
4) MSFT
5) GOOGL
6) FB
7) TSLA

Thst’s not necessarily how I’d rank each stock as I haven’t done research on each name.

They’re all great companies. The riskiness of each varies considerably. NVDA is highly dependent on TSM AND Taiwan. AAPL is working to diversify away from China. They are also heavily reliant on iPhone product cycles. GOOGL search faces a potential problem with AI if the don’t play it well. FB, to me, seems like almost a pure play of selling advertising which is very (positively) correlated to a strong economy. Tesla is positioned very well if things fall into place as an energy company as well and if AV takes off (I like the demographics of the AV industry possibly taking off). if they are just a vehicle manufacturer they are way over priced. MSFT is a well diversified tech company. AMZN is a well diversified company with a lot of synergies across businesses.
 
#15,820
#15,820
I think that AMZN might be a little ahead in healthcare, although AAPL could do very well with devices and subscriptions. GOOGL, MSFT, and FB could create added value with real time diagnostics (like AAPL). NVDA will obviously benefit with AI/healthcare integration. I guess TSLA AV’s could shuttle old fellers to medical appointments (and ambulances cost what? $1,000-$10,000?).
 
#15,821
#15,821
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Bill Gates is retired and Paul Allen is dead.

There’s plenty of room for Azure AND AWS.

MSFT’s legacy revenue stream is PCs running Windows. AMZN’s legacy revenue of online retailing still has massive room to grow.

It isn’t one or the other. Neither one is going away. Amazon is innovative in more businesses and has been more aggressive at disrupting their cost centers. I’d pick AMZN for the long haul if I had to go with only one of the two.

Right now I’d rank the business models of the Mag 7 in order:

1) AMZN
2) AAPL
3) NVDA
4) MSFT
5) GOOGL
6) FB
7) TSLA

Thst’s not necessarily how I’d rank each stock as I haven’t done research on each name.

They’re all great companies. The riskiness of each varies considerably. NVDA is highly dependent on TSM AND Taiwan. AAPL is working to diversify away from China. They are also heavily reliant on iPhone product cycles. GOOGL search faces a potential problem with AI if the don’t play it well. FB, to me, seems like almost a pure play of selling advertising which is very (positively) correlated to a strong economy. Tesla is positioned very well if things fall into place as an energy company as well and if AV takes off (I like the demographics of the AV industry possibly taking off). if they are just a vehicle manufacturer they are way over priced. MSFT is a well diversified tech company. AMZN is a well diversified company with a lot of synergies across businesses.
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Yes, but the new guy at MSFT is a beast. But, I do see your point. They are certainly not as broad based as AMZN.

In terms of having a moat, I'll take MSFT and NVDA.

APPL has such loyal customers and also an outstanding CEO in Tim Cook.

I can't gauge the ad businesses. But, like GOOGL.

Then Amazon.

With Elon distracted, TSLA is going to swing wildly.

Think FB has mostly lost the younger crowd.
 
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#15,822
#15,822
Jax_Vol said:
Yes, but the new guy at MSFT is a beast. But, I do see your point. They are certainly not as broad based as AMZN.

In turns of having a moat, I'll take MSFT and NVDA.

APPL has such loyal customers and also an outstanding CEO in Tim Cook.

I can't gauge the ad businesses. But, like GOOGL.

Then Amazon.

With Elon distracted, TSLA is going to swing wildly.

Think FB has mostly lost the younger crowd.
Click to expand...

I’ve never liked Facebook/Meta. I guess Instagram broadens their base, but they are pretty much a one trick pony selling advertising. They do get to charge a significant premium by targeting their ads directly at potential buyers of the advertised product. But I’ll never trust them after they manipulated their news feed and being so partisan. And the Zuckerbucks.

NVDA could easily be disrupted by competition (AMD, even Intel), dependance on 2 other companies (Taiwan Semi and ASML), China, and even the AI hysteria slowing. But they do have strong revenue in graphics even without AI.

AAPL needs to add another product. I haven’t heard as much about their watches as I did 4 years ago. I think a wearable device coupled with a monthly subscription service is their greatest opportunity in the future. Buffett or somebody calls them a consumer company more so than a tech company. Maybe it was (gasp) Cramer.

TSLA has tremendous potential as a company. But the stock price might be a decade ahead of itself even after pulling back.

In the Peter Lynch school of thought, I just can’t ignore the 2 huge distribution centers that AMZN is building in Knoxville or the Amazon branded delivery trucks driving through the neighborhood every day. There are a lot more UPS and FedEx trucks, but how many of their deliveries are Amazon.com orders?
 
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#15,823
#15,823
Rule # 1: Never try to catch a falling knife

With that said, this Celsius Drink (CELH) down 20% due somewhat to one week of declining sales seems like a c-r-a-z-y overreaction. Do realize that a Morgan Stanley note of caution is a really big deal.

Any thoughts from the peanut gallery?

Thinking of grabbing a few shares here in the $75-76 range. Don't have the guts to wager much on it.
 
#15,825
#15,825
Jax_Vol said:
Rule # 1: Never try to catch a falling knife

With that said, this Celsius Drink (CELH) down 20% due somewhat to one week of declining sales seems like a c-r-a-z-y overreaction. Do realize that a Morgan Stanley note of caution is a really big deal.

Any thoughts from the peanut gallery?

Thinking of grabbing a few shares here in the $75-76 range. Don't have the guts to wager much on it.
Click to expand...

Schwab Equity Rating: F
Morningstar: 1-star

Making a profit, but priced at 105x P/E

Possibility of being taken over could set a lower limit (as long as it remains profitable). But the $22B market cap makes it less likely to happen.
 
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