IMO, this analyst is wrong. He is low on his estimate for LLY. Tirzepatide is the secret sauce, and it works for more people than semaglutide.
With that disclaimer, both products will have a mega-impact in USA....aka, 'Land of the Thin People'.
Weight Loss Drug Market To Rocket To $130B By 2030 With Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk In Lead: Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs analysts re-rated Eli Lilly And Co(LLY) and Novo Nordisk A/S(NVO) , citing the potential for their weight-loss drugs.
The firm expects the global sales of weight-loss drugs to reach $130 billion by 2030, an increase from their prior $100 billion forecast.
Analyst Chris Shibutani maintained a Neutral rating on Eli Lilly(LLY) with a price target of $785, up from $740.
Shibutani forecasts revenues for the company’s AOM portfolio (including the currently commercialized tirzepatide products Monjouro and Zepbound) in 2024 to $5.3 billion (up from the prior $4.7 billion), 2027 to $27.6 billion (versus the previous $28.2 billion), and 2030 to $56.6 billion (versus the earlier $49.7 billion).
Based on BMI criteria, the analyst continues to see the potential for approximately 110 million people in the U.S. to be eligible for AOM.
According to Shibutani, the combined leading commercial players, Eli Lilly(LLY) and Novo Nordisk(NVO), will likely sustain their dominant share and market leadership.
The analyst expects the players to retain ~ 80% share of the global market through 2030, building on their vast scientific understanding, their ability to continue capitalizing on their first-to-market timing advantages, and their competitive moats.
Analyst James Quigley reiterated a Buy rating on Novo Nordisk(NVO) with a price target of $156.
Quigley noted Novo’s on-market assets and pipeline put the company in a position to maintain its leadership in obesity.