All things STOCKS

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Similar. Dont really understand what gives it value and how to value it. Those in the PF struggle to explain that as well.

Ill invest in things I understand and can determine a better value for....

The thing that somewhat intrigues me is that (Bitcoin specifically) seems like a pretty good hedge against the US dollar. So are precious metals, which also have functionality with industrial uses and jewelry. But BTC is no longer hidden from the government. The popularity of BTC with the limited number of coins are selling points. But it’s so weird that nobody knows the complete, actual history. I have more questions than answers. Is the 21,000,000 limit proven? How do we know that there isn’t somebody with an unlimited supply that is leaking more and more into circulation? 21 million is a really small number on a global scale.

I wouldn’t touch most coins. The Hawk Tuah girl just took one to market and (surprise) it’s turning out to be a scam.

 

[Go aeiou]

Similar. Dont really understand what gives it value and how to value it. Those in the PF struggle to explain that as well.

Ill invest in things I understand and can determine a better value for....

Yeah, I think when Bitcoin first came out a lot of people thought they were going to get by without reporting gains on thier trades. It was a secret currency tax people couldn't touch.
OTOH, it appears that IRS audit/enforcement has pretty much been gutted, . People have little fear of audits. If a computer doesn't catch you---

 

[05_never_again]

Usually when everyone starts talking about her as some kind of genius it’s time to hedge or go heavy into cash.

She doesn’t have a long track record. She caught and outperformed a wave of an uptrend by picking high beta stocks and since the bull market returns outpaced the benchmarks she became a financial media personality. But the style and high volatility of her picks were hammered as COVID spread and her universe of often smaller, non-diversified (single or just a few revenue streams) tech holdings crashed. It looks like the larger, better capitalized stocks in her universe might have overwhelmed the lesser known picks. The no names have mostly moved out of the top holdings in the funds. Tesla especially was one of her major big winners. I think she has lightened that position over the last few years - probably to rebalance the funds.

As long as she sticks with the companies that she’s identified as sea change themed in a new economy, rather than attempting to time trades, I think that the ARK funds are suitable for some higher risk exposure in a portfolio. Her picks aren’t Buffett like, long term wealth building selections. Kind of the opposite. But again, there’s a short history. She hadn’t demonstrated how to capture permanent gains. She rode a wave out of the Great Recession base and took a hard dive as the economy turned and investment capital dried up. Currently it appears to me that a consolidation for another upward phase is forming.

ARK funds aren’t widow and orphan types of investments.

Cathie should have stayed an analyst. She is a horrible portfolio and risk manager; she really doesn't do the latter at all.

 

[Firebirdparts]

I wouldn’t touch most coins. The Hawk Tuah girl just took one to market and (surprise) it’s turning out to be a scam.

I think it's more that it's just fundamentally a crypto coin. It's only worth what people will pay. I don't even know that it needs to be a scam.

Give me the good ol' days when people called a meme coin a meme coin from the get-go and you weren't supposed to get mad over it.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I think it's more that it's just fundamentally a crypto coin. It's only worth what people will pay. I don't even know that it needs to be a scam.

Give me the good ol' days when people called a meme coin a meme coin from the get-go and you weren't supposed to get mad over it.

I think it was a pump and dump. Insiders were selling a ton of it as it hit the market. And there was a 15% commission. Coffeezilla on X exposed it.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Cathie W is a lot better than Elaine Garzarelli. EG warned about the 1987 crash a month before it happened and became a media darling. She was horrible after that prediction. She threw **** against the wall and something stuck.

Wood’s ETFs are in the new tech niche. They don’t mirror the broad market and aren’t way overweighted with the Mag 7. The funds are loaded with names I’d never heard of. Many with really high p/e multiples as well. However the more well known names have crept up into her top 10 holdings.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

https://cathiesark.com/ark-funds-combined/complete-holdings

 

[UTSuave’]

Similar. Dont really understand what gives it value and how to value it. Those in the PF struggle to explain that as well.

Ill invest in things I understand and can determine a better value for....

I’m learning myself but what I will say…is XRP top brass donated 5 million to trumps campaign fund and trump has appointed a very crypto friendly Guy…Xrp is on the verge of securing cross border crypto currency exchanges…all over the world..they’re trying to secure at least 10% of swift transactions and with each transaction burns XRP..so with what’s in circulation as it stands there will be no more kinda like bitcoin and how it started out…it’s wild watching it honestly and i feel like if it weren’t for the sec lawsuit they would have been a lot farther down the road than what they are now.in my opinion it’s a long haul hold for all of 25’ and beyond possibly…definitely something worth the research if you’re curious about throwing some money somewhere hoping it accumulates..just let it sit.

 

[UTSuave’]

I don’t understand crypto enough to have an opinion on the smaller coins. Ripple might be top 5 or 10 in popularity, but so far I’m limiting my exposure to Bitcoin and its derivatives and ancillary exposure. I don’t know if there’s an exchange traded product with Ripple yet. The ETPs don’t trade 24/7 like the coins, but I prefer having a little bit of SEC oversight.

I’ve mostly been following BITX, MSTR, and HOOD. I plan to add some Bitcoin ETP shares if/when it pulls back and just it hold rather than trade it.

Some posters in the Bitcoin/crypto thread in Politics can add a lot more insight than I’m capable of.

I appreciate the honesty my friend…I’ll definitely check over there..thank you again

 

[Jax_Vol]

If anyone is familiar with home health care provider Amedisys, looks like UnitedHealth may be buying. The key word being "MAY"...

They have a heavy presence in middle Tennessee. AMED is the symbol.


Post Christmas gambling here!

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

If anyone is familiar with home health care provider Amedisys, looks like UnitedHealth may be buying. The key word being "MAY"...

They have a heavy presence in middle Tennessee. AMED is the symbol.

Post Christmas gambling here!

Hospice should be a good business to be in. Medicare limits hospital reimbursements, but I don’t think they have a cap on in-home hospice care (with the right advantage or supplemental insurance).

UNH buying them doesn’t excite me. An announcement would make tge stock pop, but UNH might ruin the business.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Biden and his DOJ needs to GTFO.

Investing.com -- UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) and Amedisys (NASDAQ:AMED) have decided to extend the deadline for their $3.3 billion merger agreement into the next year, according to a recent filing. This decision comes as the deal is under close examination by the U.S. Department of Justice.
Over a month ago, the DOJ, along with the states of Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, filed a lawsuit to stop the merger. They expressed concerns that the deal could decrease competition in the home health services market.
A new waiver agreement has been signed by the companies, pushing the merger deadline to 10 days after a final court decision is made in the lawsuit or until Dec. 31, 2025, whichever comes first. This was revealed in the filing.
In the premarket trading, Amedisys' shares saw a slight increase.
In June of last year, UnitedHealth announced its plans to acquire Amedisys, a home health and hospice caregiver. Analysts, however, foresaw regulatory scrutiny due to UnitedHealth's significant presence in the home health sector.
The DOJ has expressed that eliminating competition between UnitedHealth and Amedisys could negatively impact patients who rely on home health and hospice services, insurers who contract for these services, and nurses who provide them.
Previously, the companies had planned to close the deal by Dec. 27. The new waiver includes a regulatory break fee of $275 million, which could rise to $325 million, if they fail to divest some assets by May 1.
In February 2022, the justice department had also sued to stop UnitedHealth's acquisition of the tech unit, Change Healthcare (NASDAQ:CHNG). However, the deal was finalized later that same year.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Do Options Traders Know Something About Amedisys (AMED) Stock We Don't?​

December 24, 2024 — 08:32 am EST
Written by Zacks Equity Research for Zacks ->

Investors in Amedisys, Inc. AMED need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Jun 20, 2025 $45 Put had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.

What is Implied Volatility?​

Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.

What do the Analysts Think?​

Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Amedisys shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Amedisys is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) in the Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare industry that ranks in the Bottom 49% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 60 days, no analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while four analysts have revised their estimates downward. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from $1.10 per share to $1.07 in that period.

Given the way analysts feel about Amedisys right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Oftentimes, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.

 

[05_never_again]

Cathie W is a lot better than Elaine Garzarelli. EG warned about the 1987 crash a month before it happened and became a media darling. She was horrible after that prediction. She threw **** against the wall and something stuck.

Wood’s ETFs are in the new tech niche. They don’t mirror the broad market and aren’t way overweighted with the Mag 7. The funds are loaded with names I’d never heard of. Many with really high p/e multiples as well. However the more well known names have crept up into her top 10 holdings.

Cathie is a good analyst. I'll give her that. She basically was 100% correct about disruptive tech in principle. So were a lot of other people - it didn't take a tremendous amount of insight to make some of the predictions that she was making in the mid-2010s. Being an analyst is a completely different game from being a PM though, and she's a terrible PM. It's also hilarious to me that she was tight with Bill Hwang and he seeded the ARK Funds.

The thing about the financial talking head community is that you only have to be right in a big way once. Peter Schiff, Meredith Whitney, Kyle Bass, Michael Burry, etc. The list goes on and on. Burry is incredibly lucky that he didn't blow himself up.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Hospice should be a good business to be in. Medicare limits hospital reimbursements, but I don’t think they have a cap on in-home hospice care (with the right advantage or supplemental insurance).

UNH buying them doesn’t excite me. An announcement would make tge stock pop, but UNH might ruin the business.

Oh yeah...100% agree with that thought.

I did buy in but only for short-term.

Amedisys is something of a mom & pop business. Yes, any of big three healthcare groups tend to buy those and run them into the ground long term.

In my opinion; there may be a few exceptions to that narrative.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Cathie is a good analyst. I'll give her that. She basically was 100% correct about disruptive tech in principle. So were a lot of other people - it didn't take a tremendous amount of insight to make some of the predictions that she was making in the mid-2010s. Being an analyst is a completely different game from being a PM though, and she's a terrible PM. It's also hilarious to me that she was tight with Bill Hwang and he seeded the ARK Funds.

The thing about the financial talking head community is that you only have to be right in a big way once. Peter Schiff, Meredith Whitney, Kyle Bass, Michael Burry, etc. The list goes on and on. Burry is incredibly lucky that he didn't blow himself up.

ARK just hasn’t been around long enough to see how it could perform. Started out on fire. Those early, excellent returns got CW a lot of closure. Then publishing her purchases brought a lot of attention to the names. Which created more demand, which drove up those stocks, which drove up the fund share prices. Then the funds got WAYYY ahead of a proper valuation with the inflated underlying equities and they came WAYYY down from the pandemic peaks.

We’ll see. I think that the funds will outperform a lot of the averages if the economy picks up. But then they’ll probably fall much harder in the next big pullback. Rinse. Repeat.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I’d reckon that when ARK was flying high, the cash was pouring in. She couldn’t put it all in small and smaller mid-caps. Then moving into the large caps as a place to invest waters down the theme. She benefited by stumbling into TSLA. But it didn’t hold up.

I see she’s trimmed PLTR shares. IMO she should probably hold on instead of trading that one in the short term.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I’d reckon that when ARK was flying high, the cash was pouring in. She couldn’t put it all in small and smaller mid-caps. Then moving into the large caps as a place to invest waters down the theme. She benefited by stumbling into TSLA. But it didn’t hold up.

I see she’s trimmed PLTR shares. IMO she should probably hold on instead of trading that one in the short term.

PLTR is one of those companies best played by swing trading. When everyone is buying, sell it. When they are selling, buy it back,

Since it is a spook company, very trendy with whatever the Robinhood crowd is called these days.

Gotta agree with Cathie on that one.

I've picked up a couple of useful tips from her over last five years. Unfortunately, more bad than good so I got off her mailing list.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

PLTR is one of those companies best played by swing trading. When everyone is buying, sell it. When they are selling, buy it back,

Since it is a spook company, very trendy with whatever the Robinhood crowd is called these days.

Gotta agree with Cathie on that one.

I've picked up a couple of useful tips from her over last five years. Unfortunately, more bad than good so I got off her mailing list.

I think that PLTR’s business model fits well with DOGE. They’re also generating a lot of revenue per employee and I would assume that they’re efficient with fixed costs.

I don’t know if they’ll have the same results as they diversify revenue away from public to private companies.

They could also be targeted for a takeover if the share prices fall. IBM? LMT?

I started to sell near term cash reserved PLTR puts a month or two ago but backed off as the interest in owning shares was heating up. I might start nibbling again.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I think that PLTR’s business model fits well with DOGE. They’re also generating a lot of revenue per employee and I would assume that they’re efficient with fixed costs.

I don’t know if they’ll have the same results as they diversify revenue away from public to private companies.

They could also be targeted for a takeover if the share prices fall. IBM? LMT?

I started to sell near term cash reserved PLTR puts a month or two ago but backed off as the interest in owning shares was heating up. I might start nibbling again.

Exactly my point. Yes, it does seem to fit very well. IMO, too well.

Therefore, I think Cathie is smart for dumping.

As Vols, we want to go against the tide.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Ugly day today. I suppose fund managers are selling to lock in gains and it’s compounded by the low volume.

Not a bad day to put some cash to work, although equities probably won’t turn positive immediately after the calendar flips. National debt. Interest rates. Is Trump going to do something crazy? How much infighting comes out of securing the border? Are Dems going to consider putting American’s best interests ahead of wanting Trump to fail?

I wonder where BTC finds a short term bottom? $93.5k now. I’d think it gets above $100k again in days, weeks, or a couple of months and not a year or more.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Ugly day today. I suppose fund managers are selling to lock in gains and it’s compounded by the low volume.

Not a bad day to put some cash to work, although equities probably won’t turn positive immediately after the calendar flips. National debt. Interest rates. Is Trump going to do something crazy? How much infighting comes out of securing the border? Are Dems going to consider putting American’s best interests ahead of wanting Trump to fail?

I wonder where BTC finds a short term bottom? $93.5k now. I’d think it gets above $100k again in days, weeks, or a couple of months and not a year or more.

Yeah! Wish I had skipped AMED and jumped on one of the big tech companies.

What a rout!

 

[Go aeiou]

If anyone is familiar with home health care provider Amedisys, looks like UnitedHealth may be buying. The key word being "MAY"...

They have a heavy presence in middle Tennessee. AMED is the symbol.


Post Christmas gambling here!

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

SMCI is off another 5% today.

P/E is 17x.

The worst of the accounting mess might be behind them.

Current: $32
52-week high: $123
52-week low: $17

 

[Majors]

Hello RGTI…the biggest gain may be over but a nice add to someone wanting a nice buy that’s steady rising.