All things STOCKS

#16,802
#16,802
Days like this are good opportunities to convert IRAs and old 401(k)s to Roth IRAs. BUT, holding off for 2 more weeks will defer the federal income tax hit to the 2025 tax year.
 
#16,809
#16,809
ARKW is down almost 40% from Feb 2021.

QQQ is up 60% in that timeframe. SPY up well over 50%

Even going back to 2018, ARKW has underperfomed both QQQ and SPY by a decent margin....

Pretty much the biggest bull market in history and its underperformed...

At least ARKW has outperformed money matket accounts since 2018. Cant say that for all of her funds
 
#16,812
#16,812
I don't know about you guys, but I had kind of a bad day yesterday. Years ago somebody said (in jest) the most you should pay for a car is the largest amount you've gained or lost on a single day. So yesterday was a new standard for that measure.
 
#16,813
#16,813
I was sitting on a large % of cash on hand for the last month or so, expecting some downturn as the market cooled down from the election. I used a good bit of that today buying up Ford at $ 9.75. I think it's a no brainer at it's current price. Hold for around 3-6 months, until hits at least $11. Technical trading analysis along with history of the stock suggests it's likely to fill the gap back up to $13.60 at some point as well, which would be roughly a 40% gain from this area. And certainly there is potential for higher than that as well.
 
#16,814
#16,814
Firebirdparts said:
I don't know about you guys, but I had kind of a bad day yesterday. Years ago somebody said (in jest) the most you should pay for a car is the largest amount you've gained or lost on a single day. So yesterday was a new standard for that measure.
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I hear ya bruddah. I wanted to have all my puts close out by year's end, but the dive caused me to roll down into the new year. Everything was in the green until about 2pm yesterday.


****ing Fed.
 
#16,815
#16,815
SpaceCoastVol said:
I hear ya bruddah. I wanted to have all my puts close out by year's end, but the dive caused me to roll down into the new year. Everything was in the green until about 2pm yesterday.


****ing Fed.
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Glass half full here. Even after yesterday, the Dow is still up almost 500 points since November 1. And here’s the Dow year to date.

IMG_7183.jpeg
 
#16,816
#16,816
BigOrangeMojo said:
ARKW is down almost 40% from Feb 2021.

QQQ is up 60% in that timeframe. SPY up well over 50%

Even going back to 2018, ARKW has underperfomed both QQQ and SPY by a decent margin....

Pretty much the biggest bull market in history and its underperformed...

At least ARKW has outperformed money matket accounts since 2018. Cant say that for all of her funds
Click to expand...

And it’s up over 50% in 2024. Therefore, it’s “on a tear”.

Start further back than using starting points after big run ups and there were some huge upward moves.

Take the Mag 7 out of the Qs and SPY and those returns aren’t nearly as impressive.

Check what happens to the ARKs if the economy gets on track.
 
#16,817
#16,817
Thunder Good-Oil said:
And it’s up over 50% in 2024. Therefore, it’s “on a tear”.

Start further back than using starting points after big run ups and there were some huge upward moves.

Take the Mag 7 out of the Qs and SPY and those returns aren’t nearly as impressive.

Check what happens to the ARKs if the economy gets on track.
Click to expand...

Ok, is 10 years OK? On annualized basis, ARKK has underperformed the QQQ by 6% per year....

9/10 of those were really good stock market years and still a huge underperformance.

I get it, she wears a skirt and is on TV but she's lousy at consistently beating the market. No amount of rationalization or excluding Mag 7 stocks will chg that....
 
#16,818
#16,818
If on Janaury 20, 2021, I decided "F it and FJB", Im going to invest 500K in hookers and blow and put 500K under my mattress, I would have more money now than if I put 1M in ARKK...
 
#16,819
#16,819
BigOrangeMojo said:
Ok, is 10 years OK? On annualized basis, ARKK has underperformed the QQQ by 6% per year....

9/10 of those were really good stock market years and still a huge underperformance.

I get it, she wears a skirt and is on TV but she's lousy at consistently beating the market. No amount of rationalization or excluding Mag 7 stocks will chg that....
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This one simply got overvalued. She was getting a lot of exposure after the huge returns the years before and the share price was bid up to an unreasonable level.
 

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#16,822
#16,822
DaddyChad said:
Usually when everyone starts talking about her as some kind of genius it’s time to hedge or go heavy into cash.
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She doesn’t have a long track record. She caught and outperformed a wave of an uptrend by picking high beta stocks and since the bull market returns outpaced the benchmarks she became a financial media personality. But the style and high volatility of her picks were hammered as COVID spread and her universe of often smaller, non-diversified (single or just a few revenue streams) tech holdings crashed. It looks like the larger, better capitalized stocks in her universe might have overwhelmed the lesser known picks. The no names have mostly moved out of the top holdings in the funds. Tesla especially was one of her major big winners. I think she has lightened that position over the last few years - probably to rebalance the funds.

As long as she sticks with the companies that she’s identified as sea change themed in a new economy, rather than attempting to time trades, I think that the ARK funds are suitable for some higher risk exposure in a portfolio. Her picks aren’t Buffett like, long term wealth building selections. Kind of the opposite. But again, there’s a short history. She hadn’t demonstrated how to capture permanent gains. She rode a wave out of the Great Recession base and took a hard dive as the economy turned and investment capital dried up. Currently it appears to me that a consolidation for another upward phase is forming.

ARK funds aren’t widow and orphan types of investments.
 
#16,824
#16,824
UTSuave’ said:
@Thunder Good-Oil what’s your perspective on XRP in 2025? How is it looking in your opinion on a bullish upward trend
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I don’t understand crypto enough to have an opinion on the smaller coins. Ripple might be top 5 or 10 in popularity, but so far I’m limiting my exposure to Bitcoin and its derivatives and ancillary exposure. I don’t know if there’s an exchange traded product with Ripple yet. The ETPs don’t trade 24/7 like the coins, but I prefer having a little bit of SEC oversight.

I’ve mostly been following BITX, MSTR, and HOOD. I plan to add some Bitcoin ETP shares if/when it pulls back and just it hold rather than trade it.

Some posters in the Bitcoin/crypto thread in Politics can add a lot more insight than I’m capable of.
 
#16,825
#16,825
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don’t understand crypto enough to have an opinion on the smaller coins. Ripple might be top 5 or 10 in popularity, but so far I’m limiting my exposure to Bitcoin and its derivatives and ancillary exposure. I don’t know if there’s an exchange traded product with Ripple yet. The ETPs don’t trade 24/7 like the coins, but I prefer having a little bit of SEC oversight.

I’ve mostly been following BITX, MSTR, and HOOD. I plan to add some Bitcoin ETP shares if/when it pulls back and just it hold rather than trade it.

Some posters in the Bitcoin/crypto thread in Politics can add a lot more insight than I’m capable of.
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Similar. Dont really understand what gives it value and how to value it. Those in the PF struggle to explain that as well.

Ill invest in things I understand and can determine a better value for....
 
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