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#2,076
#2,076
norrislakevol said:
CCL will survive. That's how I have been playing things. I bought 10K worth of the SPXL 3X Bull shares at $24 a share about two weeks ago. So as the recovery goes, so will the share price. Also bought oil after the crash. If it goes lower I'll buy more....it's not like we won't need oil. I am waiting to see what May June holds for CCL. They will report some really bad earnings at the end of June. That's when it may be time to scoop them up.
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I see CCL as a casino type bet. CCL has the best balance sheet in their industry but due to Princess, probably has the most COVID exposure. There is probably a 30-40% chance that CCL will have to declare BK but should they come out the other side, a very conservative price target is $25 (with their equity dilution).

Typically, this is a company that I love to buy since they are best-in-industry but much like airlines, I don't like the industry. I didn't go all-in like @VolAllen (I went 750 shares at $8.10 and have sold 350 since at $12.52).

Of course now, I am considering breaking one of my rules and buying an airline stock: What do you all think of DAL or LUV?
 
#2,077
#2,077
BigOrangeMojo said:
I see CCL as a casino type bet. CCL has the best balance sheet in their industry but due to Princess, probably has the most COVID exposure. There is probably a 30-40% chance that CCL will have to declare BK but should they come out the other side, a very conservative price target is $25 (with their equity dilution).

Typically, this is a company that I love to buy since they are best-in-industry but much like airlines, I don't like the industry. I didn't go all-in like @VolAllen (I went 750 shares at $8.10 and have sold 350 since at $12.52).

Of course now, I am considering breaking one of my rules and buying an airline stock: What do you all think of DAL or LUV?
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Good analysis on CCL.

As a turn around investor I would go with DAL. They are the better bargain and they will 100 percent survive. They are one that I am watching closely as well. I will likely buy them soon. The only question is how does everyone else react to the really bad earning report they put out in summer? A lot like CCL will in late June.
 
#2,079
#2,079
norrislakevol said:
Good analysis on CCL.

As a turn around investor I would go with DAL. They are the better bargain and they will 100 percent survive. They are one that I am watching closely as well. I will likely buy them soon. The only question is how does everyone else react to the really bad earning report they put out in summer? A lot like CCL will in late June.
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I spent most of yesterday looking at DAL and LUV. I think both are the best companies in an industry that I really dont like. I think LUV is the safer of the two ( not as much business dependent, slightly better BS, limited int'l exposure, has higher % of routes in states that will open up quicker). I think DAL probably has higher ceiling but their floor is much scarier. LUV's MAX exposure is a long term headwind but that's a moot point now. If we are worried about capacity constraints, then we are on the other side of this.
 
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#2,080
#2,080
BigOrangeMojo said:
I see CCL as a casino type bet. CCL has the best balance sheet in their industry but due to Princess, probably has the most COVID exposure. There is probably a 30-40% chance that CCL will have to declare BK but should they come out the other side, a very conservative price target is $25 (with their equity dilution).

Typically, this is a company that I love to buy since they are best-in-industry but much like airlines, I don't like the industry. I didn't go all-in like @VolAllen (I went 750 shares at $8.10 and have sold 350 since at $12.52).

Of course now, I am considering breaking one of my rules and buying an airline stock: What do you all think of DAL or LUV?
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For airlines I actually like SAVE the best.
 
#2,089
#2,089
Anyone have JNUG before the reverse split and kept it after? I bought in low $6, kept after split and sitting on it for a bit. Wary to keep it long, but have a jump off point when it predictably tanks.
 
#2,090
#2,090
Offset Eye said:
Anyone have JNUG before the reverse split and kept it after? I bought in low $6, kept after split and sitting on it for a bit. Wary to keep it long, but have a jump off point when it predictably tanks.
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I sold at 83.50, bought at 67.
 
#2,095
#2,095
I sold half of my positions in my restaurant stocks today. I still think they move higher over time, but I would feel guilty not locking in some profits at this point. Sold 10k shares of BLMN at 10.50 (bought at 6.15), and sold 1k shares of YUM at 88.08 (bought at 63.53). It's been a pretty nice six weeks.
 
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#2,097
#2,097
With Trump and McConnell sparring over infrastructure spending, what companies will benefit from a massive public works / infrastructure upgrade bill? I'll say Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), CAT, and the railroads. Off the top of my head I can't say which engineering firms would benefit the most or the other materials and equipment companies that are still publicly traded. I guess steel will benefit. Can't remember if US Concrete is still independent and public. There's also that Mexican based concrete company. Cemex IIRC. United Rental possibly benefits as well.
 
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#2,098
#2,098
Thunder Good-Oil said:
With Trump and McConnell sparring over infrastructure spending, what companies will benefit from a massive public works / infrastructure upgrade bill? I'll say Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), CAT, and the railroads. Off the top of my head I can't say which engineering firms would benefit the most or the other materials and equipment companies that are still publicly traded. I guess steel will benefit. Can't remember if US Concrete is still independent and public. There's also that Mexican based concrete company. Cemex IIRC. United Rental possibly benefits as well.
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Jacobs, AECOM, and Fluor come to mind.
 
#2,100
#2,100
TheColdVolTruth said:
Jacobs, AECOM, and Fluor come to mind.
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I think that materials and communications infrastructure would be the biggest beneficiaries. Also companies that aren't as global. Cemex (CX) only does 25% of their business in the US. I think that Martin (MLM) and Vulcan (VMC) would do bigly business. Trinity (TRN) also, although their rail car business could be off a bit as the general slow down means less wear and tear on existing equipment... but they also make guard rails. US Concrete (USCR) is a smallish company and could max out their production capacity for the duration of any program. Quanta Services (PWR) might be in a good spot. Terex (TEX) is an interesting name that's in the business of materials lifting equipment. TEX is still off over 50% and has a market cap of around $1B. I've always liked United Rental (URI) and they should see a HUGE spike in business too. Caterpillar's domestic business is just a fraction of their total revenue, but I think they'd be a big beneficiary. They're much larger than those other names... maybe a more conservative approach if Trump is able to put together a trillion or more dollars in a stimulus package for US infrastructure.
 
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