All things STOCKS

#2,153
#2,153
JFreak said:
Insanity out there. Be careful gents.
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It's been a test of patience and fear tolerance. For a while it looked like it wasn't going to find a bottom and then the recovery was almost as quick as the decline. But several companies are still far from recovered (primarily travel related and retail) while others have probably over shot to the upside (mainly some healthcare names). Too many unknowns like a 2nd wave of infections and progress developing a vaccine and treatments for a clear picture of equity valuations to be visible.
 
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#2,154
#2,154
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It's been a test of patience and fear tolerance. For a while it looked like it wasn't going to find a bottom and then the recovery was almost as quick as the decline. But several companies are still far from recovered (primarily travel related and retail) while others have probably over shot to the upside (mainly some healthcare names). Too many unknowns like a 2nd wave of infections and progress developing a vaccine and treatments for a clear picture of equity valuations to be visible.
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Do you consider Amazon, Wal-Mart, and Target retail or some sort of modified retail sector of its own due to a strong on-line presence? Just curious.
 
#2,155
#2,155
95 Vol Alum said:
Do you consider Amazon, Wal-Mart, and Target retail or some sort of modified retail sector of its own due to a strong on-line presence? Just curious.
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Those 3 are retail. One is mostly e-tail and the other 2 are big online players. Many of the companies that haven't yet recovered are retail. Many in retail will not survive.
 
#2,156
#2,156
ULTA, Signet, Simon, Kohl's, Ross, Party City, Macy's, Children's Place, Nordstrom, JCP, Hibbett, Foot Locker, Shoe Carnival, Ethan Allen, ELF Beauty, Duluth, Dick's, BBBY, Steinmart, L Brands, and clothing manufacturers are all well off their highs. Several likely don't survive.
 
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#2,168
#2,168
Thunder Good-Oil said:
ULTA, Signet, Simon, Kohl's, Ross, Party City, Macy's, Children's Place, Nordstrom, JCP, Hibbett, Foot Locker, Shoe Carnival, Ethan Allen, ELF Beauty, Duluth, Dick's, BBBY, Steinmart, L Brands, and clothing manufacturers are all well off their highs. Several likely don't survive.
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I think ULTA will be fine. I think companies like TJX and Ross might do fine. There's going to be a lot of super cheap apparel out there and those "treasure hunt" type places seem to have a decent niche in the retail world.

Yeah, several of those companies you mentioned won't survive
 
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#2,169
#2,169
BigOrangeMojo said:
I think ULTA will be fine. I think companies like TJX and Ross might do fine. There's going to be a lot of super cheap apparel out there and those "treasure hunt" type places seem to have a decent niche in the retail world.

Yeah, several of those companies you mentioned won't survive
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It's a list of stocks well off of their highs. I wasn't predicting which will likely thrive or crash, but SMRT has been under a lot of pressure. The CEO is from Knoxville and graduated from Doyle.

The chairman and descendant of the founder, Jay Stein, tried to push through a sleazy take over of everybody's shares but his own.

Party City is another name that's become a Penny stock recently.

ULTA, Kohl's, and Simon might have the best management off of that list.

I don't understand how Duluth is viable. Their prices are ridiculous, but lots of people don't care how much they pay for their underwear if it's comfortable.

Apparel and small or mid caps seem to be under the most pressure in retail. I went to Home Depot last Saturday for an emergency chainsaw and the parking lot was overflowing with customer cars. The dollar stores, staples, and discounters aren't hurting too much either.
 
#2,170
#2,170
Thunder Good-Oil said:
ULTA, Signet, Simon, Kohl's, Ross, Party City, Macy's, Children's Place, Nordstrom, JCP, Hibbett, Foot Locker, Shoe Carnival, Ethan Allen, ELF Beauty, Duluth, Dick's, BBBY, Steinmart, L Brands, and clothing manufacturers are all well off their highs. Several likely don't survive.
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REITs are going to get mauled. CBL is the local one here, they're already on a short leash and I don't see how they survive this.
 
#2,171
#2,171
DancingOutlaw said:
REITs are going to get mauled. CBL is the local one here, they're already on a short leash and I don't see how they survive this.
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The good ones will figure it out and will be okay. They'll have to deal with some store closures, but real estate evolves. When the Amazon effect was shuttering store fronts, 24 hour fitness centers moved in (Planet Fitness, Workout Anytime, etc). In Turkey Creek that electronics store closed and Total Wine took the space.

If social distancing becomes a permanent practice, stores are going to require more square footage. Especially restaurants. Even if governments don't mandate it, customers might not want to go back to more dense spaces.

Simon probably adapts to whatever trends emerge. They'll serve what people want. Perhaps something like healthcare providers migrate into retail space.

That said, those REITs that are highly leveraged can certainly run into trouble. Also, IMO COVID-19 was spread rapidly not from close proximity to other people. It took off because infected people contaminated surfaces which were unconsciously being picked up by other people that used to think nothing of rubbing their noses or eyes. So maybe social distancing has been overblown.
 
#2,172
#2,172
DancingOutlaw said:
REITs are going to get mauled. CBL is the local one here, they're already on a short leash and I don't see how they survive this.
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Depends on the REIT. MAA is one I've owned for a bit and bought a little last month. Agree retail ones will get slaughtered.
 
#2,173
#2,173
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It's a list of stocks well off of their highs. I wasn't predicting which will likely thrive or crash, but SMRT has been under a lot of pressure. The CEO is from Knoxville and graduated from Doyle.

The chairman and descendant of the founder, Jay Stein, tried to push through a sleazy take over of everybody's shares but his own.

Party City is another name that's become a Penny stock recently.

ULTA, Kohl's, and Simon might have the best management off of that list.

I don't understand how Duluth is viable. Their prices are ridiculous, but lots of people don't care how much they pay for their underwear if it's comfortable.

Apparel and small or mid caps seem to be under the most pressure in retail. I went to Home Depot last Saturday for an emergency chainsaw and the parking lot was overflowing with customer cars. The dollar stores, staples, and discounters aren't hurting too much either.
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I have 5 rules of investing. If you fail one, dont invest. You hit on Rule #2. Dont invest in companies without an Amazon moat.

Rule 1 - Dont invest in airline stocks. (You get all the downside with lots of leverage/risk but none of the upside).

Rule 2 - If a retailer doesnt have a moat against Amazon, don't invest

Rule 3 - If you dont like a company, dont invest in it

Rule 4 - If you dont understand a company, dont invest

Rule 5 - Buy the best in class in each industry/subindustry. This goes back to Kohls. They made good decisions up til a couple of years ago until they started doing dumb crap. Compare that to JCP, who has had bad mgmt forever. However, you cant invest in Kohls since that violates #2.
 
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#2,174
#2,174
BigOrangeMojo said:
I have 5 rules of investing. If you fail one, dont invest. You hit on Rule #2. Dont invest in companies without an Amazon moat.

Rule 1 - Dont invest in airline stocks. (You get all the downside with lots of leverage/risk but none of the upside).

Rule 2 - If a retailer doesnt have a moat against Amazon, don't invest

Rule 3 - If you dont like a company, dont invest in it

Rule 4 - If you dont understand a company, dont invest

Rule 5 - Buy the best in class in each industry/subindustry. This goes back to Kohls. They made good decisions up til a couple of years ago until they started doing dumb crap. Compare that to JCP, who has had bad mgmt forever. However, you cant invest in Kohls since that violates #2.
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Kohl's partnered with Amazon a couple of years ago as a physical location to pick up orders and drop off returns. I haven't checked out how it's progressed.
 
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