All things STOCKS

#16,555
#16,555
DaddyChad said:
Wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole.
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It’s bounced about 15% off of the 52 week low. But bottoms are typically made on time rather than price. Shares could remain in the 20s for a while. But who knows with today’s program trading patterns of the algorithms?

Nobody should buy shares of SMCI without understanding that going to zero is a real possibility.

The auditors JUST quit. I don’t know if they could have missed so much in the last FY coupled with management being able to do enough damage since to send shares to zero. There was enough value in the assets, the cash flow, the revenue stream, and bottom line that shares were recently worth 5x as much as they are today.

There’s a big gap between the inability to continue as a going concern and not properly following accounting rules.
 
#16,556
#16,556
Lost in the election clutter is that the FOMC decision on interest rates drops at 2pm and Powell speaks at 2:30pm.

It seems like we might be returning to the days when rates are determined by the debt markets and the Fed just follows. Bond and mortgage rates have been rising despite the general consensus that the Fed still has a series of cuts coming soon. I think that the premium on the longer maturities still isn’t there.

I don’t have much of a background following debt markets, money, and banking. There’s a great deal that I don’t understand.
 
#16,557
#16,557
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It’s bounced about 15% off of the 52 week low. But bottoms are typically made on time rather than price. Shares could remain in the 20s for a while. But who knows with today’s program trading patterns of the algorithms?

Nobody should buy shares of SMCI without understanding that going to zero is a real possibility.

The auditors JUST quit. I don’t know if they could have missed so much in the last FY coupled with management being able to do enough damage since to send shares to zero. There was enough value in the assets, the cash flow, the revenue stream, and bottom line that shares were recently worth 5x as much as they are today.

There’s a big gap between the inability to continue as a going concern and not properly following accounting rules.
Click to expand...

A little bit of clarification here.

EY was new auditors on the account. Deloitte had been SCMI's auditors for 20 years prior. You only get rid of a long that long if you have disagreements with them...

2 auditors in 18 months is huge red flag
 
#16,558
#16,558
BigOrangeMojo said:
A little bit of clarification here.

EY was new auditors on the account. Deloitte had been SCMI's auditors for 20 years prior. You only get rid of a long that long if you have disagreements with them...

2 auditors in 18 months is huge red flag
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Red flag. But the company valuation has already been reduced by 80%. Disagreements with outside auditors is a huge leap to fraud so bad that the company shuts down. Auditors are more than a bit more cautious this side of Enron and WorldCom taking down Arthur Andersen. At least I would hope so.

The big question is whether or not customers are leaving as a result. With the demand for AI infrastructure still in a big backlog, I’d think revenue can still be grown.

SMCI needs new management. But being in an early stage with the founders still in control it wouldn’t be easy to get rid of them.
 
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#16,559
#16,559
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Red flag. But the company valuation has already been reduced by 80%. Disagreements with outside auditors is a huge leap to fraud so bad that the company shuts down. Auditors are more than a bit more cautious this side of Enron and WorldCom taking down Arthur Andersen. At least I would hope so.

The big question is whether or not customers are leaving as a result. With the demand for AI infrastructure still in a big backlog, I’d think revenue can still be grown.

SMCI needs new management. But being in an early stage with the founders still in control it wouldn’t be easy to get rid of them.
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I dont see a going concern issue here from the financials. The biggest going concern will be from 2 avenues:

1. Whether or not other companies will stop doing business with them due to unethical actions?

2. Impact of shareholder lawsuits

Until supply = demand for AI products, companies will hold their nose and do business with SCMI. They might get price concessions but too much demand for amything AI related for companies to run away en masse.

SH lawsuits will be a cost. But they should be able to handle them.

I dont see a going concern issue as long as cash flow statement and balance sheet are reasonably accurate....
 
#16,561
#16,561
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It’s bounced about 15% off of the 52 week low. But bottoms are typically made on time rather than price. Shares could remain in the 20s for a while. But who knows with today’s program trading patterns of the algorithms?

Nobody should buy shares of SMCI without understanding that going to zero is a real possibility.

The auditors JUST quit. I don’t know if they could have missed so much in the last FY coupled with management being able to do enough damage since to send shares to zero. There was enough value in the assets, the cash flow, the revenue stream, and bottom line that shares were recently worth 5x as much as they are today.

There’s a big gap between the inability to continue as a going concern and not properly following accounting rules.
Click to expand...
I would encourage you to at the bare minimum to look over the short report Hindenburg research did. Also heard they’re struggling to get chips from NVIDIA moreso than they were in the past; I think a lot of that business is being routed to DELL
 
#16,562
#16,562
All I know is we’re going to the moon baby! 2025-2028 bout to be littt.

🚀 🌒🇺🇸

Trying to think of some good stocks that would benefit from the resurgence of the middle class. Been loading up on OPEN and am gonna keep doing so. SOFI is one I’ve been thinking about a lot to start building a position with.
 
#16,563
#16,563
Freedom said:
All I know is we’re going to the moon baby! 2025-2028 bout to be littt.

🚀 🌒🇺🇸

Trying to think of some good stocks that would benefit from the resurgence of the middle class. Been loading up on OPEN and am gonna keep doing so. SOFI is one I’ve been thinking about a lot to start building a position with.
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Maybe the Consumer Discretionary sector fits the middle class criteria. XLY is the ETF. It’s 40% Amazon and Tesla so it’s already had a big run up.
 
#16,565
#16,565
News Services

What news services do ya'll use for your information? Are they paid subscriptions or free? Are you a high volume trader/day trader, or more of a buy and hold guy/gal?

I'm about to retire and probably trade "full time" - it's a long story, but I really enjoy it and I am pretty good at it. But mostly I just look at momentum and stick my finger in the wind and choose based on gut. Some might say it's risky, but it has worked for me for almost 10 years of high volume options trading. But I guess that since I soon won't have a paycheck to fall back on, I should do more 'intelligent' investing.

Would some of ya'll mind chiming in on what you use for your news?

Thanks
 
#16,566
#16,566
SpaceCoastVol said:
News Services

What news services do ya'll use for your information? Are they paid subscriptions or free? Are you a high volume trader/day trader, or more of a buy and hold guy/gal?

I'm about to retire and probably trade "full time" - it's a long story, but I really enjoy it and I am pretty good at it. But mostly I just look at momentum and stick my finger in the wind and choose based on gut. Some might say it's risky, but it has worked for me for almost 10 years of high volume options trading. But I guess that since I soon won't have a paycheck to fall back on, I should do more 'intelligent' investing.

Would some of ya'll mind chiming in on what you use for your news?

Thanks
Click to expand...

I usually drill down through the NEWS links on my broker apps. If I needed immediate news I’d buy a subscription to a service. Maybe Bloomberg.
 
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#16,567
#16,567
SpaceCoastVol said:
News Services

What news services do ya'll use for your information? Are they paid subscriptions or free? Are you a high volume trader/day trader, or more of a buy and hold guy/gal?

I'm about to retire and probably trade "full time" - it's a long story, but I really enjoy it and I am pretty good at it. But mostly I just look at momentum and stick my finger in the wind and choose based on gut. Some might say it's risky, but it has worked for me for almost 10 years of high volume options trading. But I guess that since I soon won't have a paycheck to fall back on, I should do more 'intelligent' investing.

Would some of ya'll mind chiming in on what you use for your news?

Thanks
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I think trading on mo-mo is a decent way to do it. You have a system that works.

Don't have a good answer for your question. Many years ago, I briefly tried trading on news. If I can remember the feed I watched, will post. It was a NASDAQ deal (non-paid) that was supposed to be an original source for breaking stories.

Got roasted because others have automated that style approach. Two things I remember: 1. It was a lot of work and felt like a job. 2. Others seemed to have the news and react slightly quicker. And that was costly. Could say...get what you pay for I suppose.
 
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#16,569
#16,569
Thunder Good-Oil said:
With the computerized trading immediately moving the markets on any news that drops, the sweet spot might be to try to catch the quick bottom, riding a small bounce, and bailing out before the algorithms counter the anticipated bounces.
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Yes. I do remember that people usually overreact to news. But, I wasn't set up to get in and out fast enough.
 
#16,572
#16,572
Vol737 said:
As that thing was collapsing I remember thinking, try to catch that falling knife and one will find out they caught a running chainsaw.
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I mean IF you wanted to play the upside you could buy a LEAP option and limit your loss potential a bit or you could buy a small position if you know what you’re getting into. You can probably buy some Chinese stocks with as much upside potential and a little safer than this turd though; they don’t even have an auditor currently.
 
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#16,573
#16,573
DaddyChad said:
I mean IF you wanted to play the upside you could buy a LEAP option and limit your loss potential a bit or you could buy a small position if you know what you’re getting into. You can probably buy some Chinese stocks with as much upside potential and a little safer than this turd though; they don’t even have an auditor currently.
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No outside auditors, but they do have a CFO and CEO that don’t want to be Sarbanes-Oxleyed to prison. The worst outcome of not hiring an auditor soon would probably be getting delisted.

Management taking the company private ought to keep a stock price floor in place. But there would be an army of lawyers suing them into oblivion if management runs the company into the ground and buys it for pennies on the dollar.

Goody’s and Sears Holdings are a couple of poorly run companies coming to mind that insiders ended up owning after they were taken private.

I think that there’s money to be made selling puts but I’m not ready to participate in that. I’d rather not be assigned SMCI shares just yet. They could still fall by 50% in the near term.
 
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#16,574
#16,574
DaddyChad said:
I mean IF you wanted to play the upside you could buy a LEAP option and limit your loss potential a bit or you could buy a small position if you know what you’re getting into. You can probably buy some Chinese stocks with as much upside potential and a little safer than this turd though; they don’t even have an auditor currently.
Click to expand...
I got out of anything Chinese years ago. I do not trust them. I don’t play the options game, just never took time to learn it. I’m just a boring ole investor, but I’m certainly not disappointed in the returns.
 
#16,575
#16,575
Vol737 said:
I got out of anything Chinese years ago. I do not trust them. I don’t play the options game, just never took time to learn it. I’m just a boring ole investor, but I’m certainly not disappointed in the returns.
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Options are rarely worth dealing with. Selling puts is a handy skill to have. Other than that spreads, calls, straddles, strangles, etc most of the time burn your average retail investor. Covered calls and puts are about all the average person needs to know about.
 
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