All things STOCKS

#17,376
#17,376
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The mood right now is to punish markets on any negative news. I don’t expect an opposite, equal rebound as better news slowly drops. It should take several months to recover from the rapid pull back. Trump is too disruptive for those that are risk averse. His policies will need to start showing results to bring back investor confidence.

I don’t expect Mexico or Canada to let their pissing matches to drag on. They have too much to lose and don’t have a lot of leverage. Are there any countries that have fair and equivalent tariffs in place? When they’re already taking advantage of the US they don’t have good hands to play. They’re trying to use the liberal media fueling the Never Trumpers to help the lame arguments.
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This is kind of an outlier as far as a sell off but you saw NVDA do a deep sell off into the deepseek BS news then climb back up going into earnings. I’m betting you see a similar response here bc idk many that have the balls to short it going into earnings.
 
#17,378
#17,378
Thor Industries (THO) is getting hammered (-15%) with crap earnings/loss release. Airstream and Jayco. $5 billion market cap. 2.1% dividend.
 
#17,379
#17,379
DaddyChad said:
This is kind of an outlier as far as a sell off but you saw NVDA do a deep sell off into the deepseek BS news then climb back up going into earnings. I’m betting you see a similar response here bc idk many that have the balls to short it going into earnings.
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I don't short-term trade anymore, but NVDA (and the semis broadly) don't trade/act all that well right now. On the daily chart NVDA is making lower highs and lower lows, and it is currently below both the 50 and 200 DMAs which are starting to roll over (50 already has, and the 200 will soon unless it is able to snap back above it over the next few days). When stocks get below and stay below those longer-term MAs and those MAs start to roll over and decline, and the stock bounces back towards them, rallies tend to get stopped at or around them.

NVDA got pounded on the DeepSeek news, then rallied into earnings, then undercut the DeepSeek low after those earnings were released. That, combined with the overall price action/trend in the stock since last summer, kind of looks like distribution to me.

Unless the broader market can find new leadership quickly, it doesn't bode well for it either. At least on a short to intermediate-term basis.
 
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#17,380
#17,380
05_never_again said:
I don't short-term trade anymore, but NVDA (and the semis broadly) don't trade/act all that well right now. On the daily chart NVDA is making lower highs and lower lows, and it is currently below both the 50 and 200 DMAs which are starting to roll over (50 already has, and the 200 will soon unless it is able to snap back above it over the next few days). When stocks get below and stay below those longer-term MAs and those MAs start to roll over and decline, and the stock bounces back towards them, rallies tend to get stopped at or around them.

NVDA got pounded on the DeepSeek news, then rallied into earnings, then undercut the DeepSeek low after those earnings were released. That, combined with the overall price action/trend in the stock since last summer, kind of looks like distribution to me.

Unless the broader market can find new leadership quickly, it doesn't bode well for it either. At least on a short to intermediate-term basis.
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This is definitely playing out in the market today.
 
#17,381
#17,381
I think it’s important for the whole market how well the “smoke stack” companies perform. Current policy initiatives should stimulate the domestic manufacturing base including materials and energy. Of course early trading could have peeled off a lot of potential capital gains, but a huge push to ramp up should play out well for the overall economy. More profits. Larger payrolls. More tax revenue. Lower national debt.
 
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#17,382
#17,382
05_never_again said:
On the daily chart, the S&P technically is in a pretty vulnerable position here. The top of the morning rally tagged the 50 DMA, which has rolled over and is now declining. I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the 200 DMA soon.
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We bounced off of it yesterday, and got close to it again today. NDX is right there as we speak and slightly undercut it yesterday.
 
#17,383
#17,383
05_never_again said:
I don't short-term trade anymore, but NVDA (and the semis broadly) don't trade/act all that well right now. On the daily chart NVDA is making lower highs and lower lows, and it is currently below both the 50 and 200 DMAs which are starting to roll over (50 already has, and the 200 will soon unless it is able to snap back above it over the next few days). When stocks get below and stay below those longer-term MAs and those MAs start to roll over and decline, and the stock bounces back towards them, rallies tend to get stopped at or around them.

NVDA got pounded on the DeepSeek news, then rallied into earnings, then undercut the DeepSeek low after those earnings were released. That, combined with the overall price action/trend in the stock since last summer, kind of looks like distribution to me.

Unless the broader market can find new leadership quickly, it doesn't bode well for it either. At least on a short to intermediate-term basis.
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Maybe. Technical analysis doesn’t look great. Fundamentally you’re hearing companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft say that the bottleneck on AI is hardware and seeing their data center budgets go up. I could be wrong maybe their market dominance is eroding but I doubt it; I bet they knock it out of the park in the next earnings on Blackwell sales.

The other issue that could kick NVDA in the teeth is the deal with Singapore routing GPUs through Malaysia to China. NVDA did nothing wrong but a large percentage of sales were going to Singapore and most of that was getting routed illegally to China.
 
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#17,384
#17,384
DaddyChad said:
Maybe. Technical analysis doesn’t look great. Fundamentally you’re hearing companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft say that the bottleneck on AI is hardware and seeing their data center budgets go up. I could be wrong maybe their market dominance is eroding but I doubt it; I bet they knock it out of the park in the next earnings on Blackwell sales.

The other issue that could kick NVDA in the teeth is the deal with Singapore routing GPUs through Malaysia to China. NVDA did nothing wrong but a large percentage of sales were going to Singapore and most of that was getting routed illegally to China.
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It's really tough, IMO, to short-term trade based on fundamentals. The stuff about their GPUs ending up in China via Singapore has been speculated/known about for a long time, but it didn't prevent the stock from going up.

They've beaten extremely high street expectations with their last 4 earnings reports, yet the stock has gone ultimately nowhere since last summer. It is also trading basically exactly where it was after the DeepSeek scare (there was a big rally between then, yes, but it has given all that back), which could indicate that there is something legitimate to those worries. I personally am very skeptical of the claim, as I am with any data point coming out of China, but the market doesn't care what I think. The stock got hammered on the news and hasn't acted great since then.

Who knows - it could be consolidating gains before another leg higher, but I wouldn't expect it to be at or exceeding the old high in the near-term.
 
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#17,385
#17,385
Building cash for the foreseeable future. I think this volatility will last for a while. Got out of a few positions, will wait and see how the tech sector responds over this year. Otherwise, will just dollar cost avg down to my solid dividend plays, maintain my ETFs.
 
#17,386
#17,386
Vol737 said:
Building cash for the foreseeable future. I think this volatility will last for a while. Got out of a few positions, will wait and see how the tech sector responds over this year. Otherwise, will just dollar cost avg down to my solid dividend plays, maintain my ETFs.
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I hear ya. I'm considering rolling all my dividends into a few core holdings (SCHD and EPD) for a bit, keeling some cash aside for unique market opportunities/overreactions.
 
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#17,388
#17,388
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I think it’s important for the whole market how well the “smoke stack” companies perform. Current policy initiatives should stimulate the domestic manufacturing base including materials and energy. Of course early trading could have peeled off a lot of potential capital gains, but a huge push to ramp up should play out well for the overall economy. More profits. Larger payrolls. More tax revenue. Lower national debt.
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When thinking about "smoke stack" companies, do you have thoughts on the US oil reserve levels or the Baltic Dry Index pricing?
 
#17,391
#17,391
GoDucks349 said:
When thinking about "smoke stack" companies, do you have thoughts on the US oil reserve levels or the Baltic Dry Index pricing?
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No, I don’t pay attention to shipping at all and since there’s so much oil out there I don’t keep up with that either. If I was more of a short term trader I would pay attention.

I now just stick to basic options trades, mostly selling the puts to get a discount on the underlying shares. Otherwise, I look for companies that I’ll never sell after the very near term. I might take a quick profit. Some day I’ll use the losers and to offset and reset my basis higher on some gains. I also use margin in one account, but I’m winding that down.

I’ll use an investment manager at some point. It might be in 5 years or it could be in 25 or 30 depending on my ability to still know what I’m doing.
 
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#17,392
#17,392
Thunder Good-Oil said:
No, I don’t pay attention to shipping at all and since there’s so much oil out there I don’t keep up with that either. If I was more of a short term trader I would pay attention.

I now just stick to basic options trades, mostly selling the puts to get a discount on the underlying shares. Otherwise, I look for companies that I’ll never sell after the very near term. I might take a quick profit. Some day I’ll use the losers and to offset and reset my basis higher on some gains. I also use margin in one account, but I’m winding that down.

I’ll use an investment manager at some point. It might be in 5 years or it could be in 25 or 30 depending on my ability to still know what I’m doing.
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I doubt that you'll need an investment manager at all. I'll be 78 shortly and just don't see the benefit of an investment manager as long as I've got my brain.
 
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#17,393
#17,393
GoDucks349 said:
I doubt that you'll need an investment manager at all. I'll be 78 shortly and just don't see the benefit of an investment manager as long as I've got my brain.
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I’m talking about if and when my brain does go south. More than just a firm picking investments. A firm to oversee everything and I’d rather it to begin while I’m still aware of what they’re doing instead of having a court appoint a POA.
 
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#17,395
#17,395
The S&P500 is down about 8.5% if I read right. I don't think it matters, really, the numbers, but of course there could be some behavioral stuff when it hits 10% and then again at 20%. Valuations are so high that I keep looking at my portfolio and thinking about changing something, but it just seems like it's already risk-proof enough.
 
#17,396
#17,396
Firebirdparts said:
The S&P500 is down about 8.5% if I read right. I don't think it matters, really, the numbers, but of course there could be some behavioral stuff when it hits 10% and then again at 20%. Valuations are so high that I keep looking at my portfolio and thinking about changing something, but it just seems like it's already risk-proof enough.
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Missing those few huge up days that happen infrequently keeps me from jumping ship. Plus the odds are that most of the damage has already occurred.

It’s a long staircase when going up and an elevator ride down.
 
#17,397
#17,397
Firebirdparts said:
The S&P500 is down about 8.5% if I read right. I don't think it matters, really, the numbers, but of course there could be some behavioral stuff when it hits 10% and then again at 20%. Valuations are so high that I keep looking at my portfolio and thinking about changing something, but it just seems like it's already risk-proof enough.
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If your portfolio was too aggressive, the time to re-orient it was a few weeks ago (or earlier).

Waiting for 8% (or 10%, or 15%, or 25%) drawdowns then deciding to change stuff around is a good way to negatively impact future returns.
 
#17,398
#17,398
This selloff has been extremely orderly so far. I don't sense any panic at all (yet). There was a brief moment yesterday afternoon where it felt like people were throwing stocks away, but then we actually bounced into the close after that.

If you're looking for a tradeable bottom I'd like to see a really aggressive selloff to end the session (not necessarily today) and then a big gap down the following morning, followed by a rally that lasts all day.
 
#17,400
#17,400
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Market bottoms are made on time, not price.

www.investopedia.com

3 Ways to Tell If Your Stock Has Bottomed

No one can call stock bottoms with absolute certainty, but there are some common trends that appear when stocks are about to hit bottom.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
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It's sometimes both, at least in normal (i.e., not COVID) situations. The 2018 rate hike/growth scare bottom was a V-bottom. You didn't have much time at all at or near the lows to make purchases.

As a long-term investor (although it is also beneficial as a short-term trader), I just like to rip the band-aid off and get to the low as soon as possible. The more people are panicked, the better. After a bounce off the low, in all likelihood the market will need to trade back towards that low again, hence the time component, but let's just go ahead and trade to the low ASAP.
 
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