Atlanta Braves II

[Vercingetorix]

Prado is a hitter whose whole value is wrapped up in his batting average. And batting average is by far the most random of the hitting skills. Almost everybody goes through years when the BA sucks. (Remember the year right smack in Chipper's prime when he hit under .250?) If you draw walks and hit with power, you're still bringing something to the table when the singles aren't falling. Prado doesn't.

 

[whocaresgobobcats]

Prado. Don't get me started. I'm going to get flamed, but I hope Atlanta trades him. He's a great guy and teammate, but he's a below average left fielder.

No point in selling low. He's under team control for 2 more year and won't cost much next year. I can deal with a below average LFer defensively if he puts up 2010/2009 numbers from the 2 hole.

His past has proven this year should be a fluke. His BABIP is about 50 points lower than his career numbers. I think he'll be alright,just a down year.

 

[whocaresgobobcats]

Prado is a hitter whose whole value is wrapped up in his batting average. And batting average is by far the most random of the hitting skills. Almost everybody goes through years when the BA sucks. (Remember the year right smack in Chipper's prime when he hit under .250?) If you draw walks and hit with power, you're still bringing something to the table when the singles aren't falling. Prado doesn't.

He's not a bad #2 guy though. 40 doubles, .350 OBP, and .800 OPS is solid.

 

[underscore]

If you watch a typical Bourn at-bat and then a subsequent Prado at-bat, it's instant facepalm.

Bourn works the count, looks relaxed, and puts a lot of pressure on the defense. Prado does all of this, but to himself. He appears to be very uncomfortable, has zero patience, and looks way stressed at the plate. He's so fidgety up there I become uncomfortable watching him -- luckily for me the at-bats typically do not last more than three pitches with him nowadays.

It's a shame. Last year he was the one we counted on and really enjoyed watching him play. Perhaps the move out of the infield screwed him up like it did the year Chipper went to LF.
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[Vercingetorix]

He's not a bad #2 guy though. 40 doubles, .350 OBP, and .800 OPS is solid.

None of which he's close to this year. He doesn't hit homers and doesn't draw walks, so all his value is based on base hits falling in. And this year has been a disaster.

I like Prado, but as I argued in this thread last year, if you're counting on a guy like him to be a big cog in your offense, you're asking for it.

 

[whocaresgobobcats]

None of which he's close to this year. He doesn't hit homers and doesn't draw walks, so all his value is based on base hits falling in. And this year has been a disaster.

I like Prado, but as I argued in this thread last year, if you're counting on a guy like him to be a big cog in your offense, you're asking for it.

This year appears to be a fluke, hopefully, based on past numbers.

I agree he shouldn't be one of their main offensive threats, but as a 2 hole hitter, he works.

 

[Vercingetorix]

If you watch a typical Bourn at-bat and then a subsequent Prado at-bat, it's instant facepalm.

Bourn works the count, looks relaxed, and puts a lot of pressure on the defense. Prado does all of this, but to himself. He appears to be very uncomfortable, has zero patience, and looks way stressed at the plate. He's so fidgety up there I become uncomfortable watching him -- luckily for me the at-bats typically do not last more than three pitches with him nowadays.

It's a shame. Last year he was the one we counted on and really enjoyed watching him play. Perhaps the move out of the infield screwed him up like it did the year Chipper went to LF.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

He's only seeing a tenth of a pitch lower than his career average this year. (3.73 pitches per PA this year; 3.84 career.) His walk percentage is almost the same (5.9% vs 6.1% last year.) He's just a guy who has to put the bat on the ball and have it fall into the field in order to have any value, and it hasn't worked out for him this year. He'll probably be "back" next year, but it'll be more of a case of him reverting to the mean rather than anything else.

 

[underscore]

He's only seeing a tenth of a pitch lower than his career average this year. (3.73 pitches per PA this year; 3.84 career.) His walk percentage is almost the same (5.9% vs 6.1% last year.) He's just a guy who has to put the bat on the ball and have it fall into the field in order to have any value, and it hasn't worked out for him this year. He'll probably be "back" next year, but it'll be more of a case of him reverting to the mean rather than anything else.

I'd like to see numbers on him this in crucial at-bats. Much like the QBR in football. He seems to be the rally killer this year along with Heyward. What is he hitting with runners in scoring position? And the same Q w/two outs?
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[whocaresgobobcats]

However, if Wren gets Alex Gordon, I'd be all for seeing what Prado get in a trade.

 

[whocaresgobobcats]

I'd like to see numbers on him this in crucial at-bats. Much like the QBR in football. He seems to be the rally killer this year along with Heyward. What is he hitting with runners in scoring position? And the same Q w/two outs?
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Split              G GS  PA AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
RISP                 84 125   114 32  4  0  1  42  1  0  8 11 .281 .320 .342  .662  39   7   0  0  3   1   4  .295    93    81
---                 125 357   334 90 18  2 10  10  0  0 22 33 .269 .317 .425  .742 142   0   1  0  0   0   4  .275   114   109
Men On              111 215   199 50  8  0  2  46  4  8 12 16 .251 .290 .322  .611  64  16   0  1  3   1   7  .261    78    67
1--                  72  90    85 18  4  0  1   4  3  8  4  5 .212 .247 .294  .541  25   9   0  1  0   0   3  .215    57    48
-2-                  43  44    41  8  0  0  0   4  1  0  3  6 .195 .250 .195  .445   8   0   0  0  0   1   1  .229    32    24
--3                  15  16    12  6  0  0  0   8  0  0  2  0 .500 .500 .500 1.000   6   0   0  0  2   0   0  .429   193   164
12-                  19  22    22  5  1  0  0   5  0  0  0  2 .227 .227 .273  .500   6   4   0  0  0   0   1  .250    45    44
1-3                  18  17    16  7  2  0  0   8  0  0  1  1 .438 .471 .563 1.033   9   2   0  0  0   0   0  .467   200   167
-23                  17  18    16  3  1  0  0   8  0  0  1  2 .188 .222 .250  .472   4   0   0  0  1   0   2  .200    37    21
123                   8   8     7  3  0  0  1   9  0  0  1  0 .429 .500 .857 1.357   6   1   0  0  0   0   0  .333   285   266
on 1st lt 2 out      69  85    80 20  4  0  2  15  1  7  4  5 .250 .286 .375  .661  30  16   0  1  0   0   4  .247    91    75
on 3rd lt 2 out      25  27    22  9  1  0  1  19  0  0  2  2 .409 .407 .591  .998  13   3   0  0  3   0   0  .364   186   135
on 3rd 2 out         25  32    29 10  2  0  0  14  0  0  3  1 .345 .406 .414  .820  12   0   0  0  0   0   2  .357   140   138

Split          G GS  PA AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
2 outs RISP      43  59    55  15  3  0  0  20  0  0  4  5 .273 .322 .327 .649  18   0   0  0  0   1   2  .300    90    88
Late  Close      72 110    97  22  4  0  4  18  2  0 11  6 .227 .303 .392 .695  38   2   0  1  1   0   0  .205   101   103
Tie Game        114 208   193  52  9  0  3  16  1  5 13 17 .269 .314 .363 .677  70   7   0  1  1   0   7  .282    97    87
Within 1 R      123 345   321  88 17  1  8  31  4  6 21 25 .274 .320 .408 .728 131  11   1  1  1   0  11  .277   110   102
Within 2 R      123 436   405 111 23  2  8  42  4  7 28 31 .274 .322 .400 .722 162  12   1  1  1   0  11  .281   109   102
Within 3 R      125 490   456 122 24  2  9  44  4  8 31 39 .268 .315 .388 .703 177  13   1  1  1   0  11  .276   103    96
Within 4 R      125 517   482 132 26  2 12  53  4  8 32 41 .274 .320 .411 .731 198  13   1  1  1   0  11  .279   111   104
Margin  4 R      30  55    51   8  0  0  0   3  0  0  2  8 .157 .182 .157 .339   8   3   0  0  2   1   0  .178     0    -6
Ahead            66 169   155  50 11  1  3  19  3  2 13 19 .323 .373 .465 .837  72   5   0  0  1   1   3  .351   142   130
Behind           75 195   185  38  6  1  6  21  0  1  8 13 .205 .241 .346 .587  64   4   1  0  1   0   1  .192    68    66

 

[Vercingetorix]

This year appears to be a fluke, hopefully, based on past numbers.

I agree he shouldn't be one of their main offensive threats, but as a 2 hole hitter, he works.

I don't like 2 hitters who don't draw walks. All I want from the top two guys in my order are to get on base and be driven in by my 3 and 4 hitters. Prado's got a good career OBP, but this season has really exposed how much of that has been due to the fickle gods of batting average. If the hits aren't falling then he gives you nothing.

The very first thing the Braves need to do after the offseason starts is sit down and figure out what the hell happened to their OBP this year. (They will probably have to explain to Fredi what it is.) They led the league in OBP last year, and this year they're near the bottom. Everybody on the team is walking less. They need to figure out why and fix it.

 

[Vercingetorix]

I'd like to see numbers on him this in crucial at-bats. Much like the QBR in football. He seems to be the rally killer this year along with Heyward. What is he hitting with runners in scoring position? And the same Q w/two outs?
Posted via VolNation Mobile

Hitting with RISP is a flukey stat. Nobody is significantly better or worse than his career average at it every year. Different guys are good at it every year. All it is is random noise and a small sample size.

 

[whocaresgobobcats]

I don't like 2 hitters who don't draw walks. All I want from the top two guys in my order are to get on base and be driven in by my 3 and 4 hitters. Prado's got a good career OBP, but this season has really exposed how much of that has been due to the fickle gods of batting average. If the hits aren't falling then he gives you nothing.

The very first thing the Braves need to do after the offseason starts is sit down and figure out what the hell happened to their OBP this year. (They will probably have to explain to Fredi what it is.) They led the league in OBP last year, and this year they're near the bottom. Everybody on the team is walking less. They need to figure out why and fix it.

Yea, I'm basing my thoughts on Prado on his careers number, hoping he will return to them.

I wonder if it was a change in philosophy with a new manager and hitting coach. Be more aggressive, make things happen, etc. Going from Yunel Escobar to Alex Gonzalez hasn't help either, neither has Heyward's overall suckness.

They can't hit LHP either, 78 OPS+, that's awful. They need patient, right handed hitters with power, lol (who doesn't).

 

[Vercingetorix]

Yea, I'm basing my thoughts on Prado on his careers number, hoping he will return to them.

I wonder if it was a change in philosophy with a new manager and hitting coach. Be more aggressive, make things happen, etc. Going from Yunel Escobar to Alex Gonzalez hasn't help either, neither has Heyward's overall suckness.

Even starting last year, the Braves have been screwing around with Heyward in a really unforgivable way. He drew walks to the tune of an OBP of almost .400 and they apparently complained that he wasn't being aggressive enough. So he started swinging at more (i.e., bad) pitches and started having problems that he hasn't yet been able to pull themselves out of. When you get a talent like Heyward, the last thing you need to do is start bellyaching to him about his pitch selection.

"Being aggressive" has been a Braves' hallmark for a lot of years, even though the best teams have now figured out that you need to emphasize patience at the plate. I think it's only worse now with Fredi, who famously doesn't know anything about his players' OBP.

 

[Regulator]

I would like to see Prado's numbers since the Bourn trade. I want to see his numbers with Bourn on base ahead of him vs Bourn not on base. It can't be understated how trying to hit behind a base stealer changes your approach at the plate, be it consciously our unconsciously. Prado has to learn how to be selectively patient/aggressive. I think maybe right now, he's laying off of pitches that he would typically put in play in an effort to let Bourn steal a base and winding up in 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 counts. It may be that he's not a good match for hitting behind Bourn.
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[Volnbeers]

I wouldn't worry bravos fans...if any team can **** up a gift-wrapped opportunity, its certainly the redbirds.

 

[GAVol]

I would like to see Prado's numbers since the Bourn trade. I want to see his numbers with Bourn on base ahead of him vs Bourn not on base. It can't be understated how trying to hit behind a base stealer changes your approach at the plate, be it consciously our unconsciously. Prado has to learn how to be selectively patient/aggressive. I think maybe right now, he's laying off of pitches that he would typically put in play in an effort to let Bourn steal a base and winding up in 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 counts. It may be that he's not a good match for hitting behind Bourn.
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Bottom line though is that LF is all about offense. They'd be a lot better off moving Prado back to the "super sub" role and getting a bat for LF.

 

[NYYVol]

Do most of you Brave fans believe that the team played over their heads most of the year and this is actually the level of team you have? Or is it just a case of nerves, new situations for folks that caused the proverbial wheel to fall off?
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[Volnbeers]

Do most of you Brave fans believe that the team played over their heads most of the year and this is actually the level of team you have? Or is it just a case of nerves, new situations for folks that caused the proverbial wheel to fall off?
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I think its more of a case of being sans Hanson and jurjjens.

 

[GAVol]

Do most of you Brave fans believe that the team played over their heads most of the year and this is actually the level of team you have? Or is it just a case of nerves, new situations for folks that caused the proverbial wheel to fall off?
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they are going to end up where I think they should . . . Around 90 wins. The the offense has been spotty all year. What happened though is the pitching was outstanding in the 1st half and then lackluster for much of the 2nd. Plus, losing the #2 and #3 starter didn't help.

 

[zjcvols]

Do most of you Brave fans believe that the team played over their heads most of the year and this is actually the level of team you have? Or is it just a case of nerves, new situations for folks that caused the proverbial wheel to fall off?
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No. This team has the talent. Most everyone picked them for the playoffs. And we were fine without our huge acquistion doing anything for three months.

Three problems

1. We lost our #2 and #3 pitchers. At the ASB, Jair Jurrjens was leading the league in ERA, and Tommy Hanson was in the top in almost every pitching category. It doesn't matter how good you are, that hurts. Take out Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for the Brewers. Do they make the playoffs? No. That's why I can't say this is an epic collapse. This was something they didn't see coming, especially JJ.

2. Martin Prado has sucked. He's just been bad. And he's our #2 hitter, and just stays there doing nothing.

3. Fredi Gonzalez does nothing. If this was Bobby Cox, this wouldn't be happening. Gonzalez doesn't inspire the team at all, and that is hurting the team.

 

[GBO18]

How come nobody is bringing up the lack of production from McCann? He has been just as pitiful as Prado the past two months.

 

[zjcvols]

How come nobody is bringing up the lack of production from McCann? He has been just as pitiful as Prado the past two months.

He's at least got a .330 OBP this month.

 

[GBO18]

McCann is hitting .200 since the all-star break. He is a big reason we are not scoring with RISP.

 

[whocaresgobobcats]

Obviously his first half numbers were unsustainable, but McCann has been awful the last couple of months. Him and Prado's slumps have really hurt the offense. Combine that with the loss of JJ and Hanson and Fredi's inability to adjust and you have a slumping team.