TBrown
Wolf of Beale Street
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- Feb 4, 2009
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I want to believe
This is me also
I mean, at this point I'll believe it when I see it. What I think we have is a team with a really good defense, that's really good at running the ball, but which is going to have trouble passing downfield. And against most of the teams on our schedule that's probably going to be enough. But there are probably going to be a few defenses we'll play that can slow our run game down, and that's likely to mean low-scoring, one-possession type slogs, and I have zero confidence so far in this staff's ability to make the tactical in-game decisions to win that kind of game.
Everything opens up if you beat Florida. But A) it hasn't happened since John Kerry had a lead for the presidency and B) they will probably have the sort of defense that can get us into a rockfight. Which Jones probably loses. And then if you beat them you've got to turn around and play at Georgia the week after the program's biggest win since Cal in 2006, which is a recipe for disaster.
What will probably happen is that we go 10-2 or 9-3, probably win the east, probably lose the SECCG, then most of our best players leave and nobody quite knows what to think about Butch going forward.
I'm really excited about the season. I have SEC championship tickets semi-reserved. But It's really hard to believe everything will bounce our way for once.
I pretty much agree with everything you're saying here but I think I'm just slightly more bullish about our defense under Shoop. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit but I think we'll have the chance to win some games on that side of the ball alone and put away other games that might hang in the balance through turnovers and negative plays. Obviously injuries, bad bounces, etc can always come into play and change things but I think everything can add up to a 10 win season and an appearance in Atlanta, and I'd be more than happy with that outcome come December.
But in terms of 'We are a few points away from a better overall result...' the defense will provide some of those points.
I get conservative Butch blew two games with huge leads and dive up the middle and why can't we get a stop on fourth down blah blah
But we did flawlessly execute two huge trick plays against Florida last year and a 4th down conversion against UGA that changed the season entirely
Let's give the man a fair shake
Can we throw the ball down the field or not? So much hinges on this IMO and it seems like the one aspect that all the prognosticators of a 10-2 or 11-1 season are conveniently overlooking. What has changed since last season that will cause us to be so much better? Or are we just betting the house on the run game?
Perhaps not *too much* has to change to lead to a 10-2 season might be the argument. Better run game. Better defense. Slightly less miserable pass game.