Basillo Point about wanting Bama to lose to LSU…

#26
#26
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
It's less likely than simply rooting for the team that doesn't help our resume to lose. Alabama losing also hurts our case against other teams that are behind us. Imagine if SMU wins out and loses a close game to Miami. Why should the committee take us at 10-2 with no quality wins over 11-2 SMU?

Alabama losing damages us as much as it helps because it allows other teams behind us to pass us if our resume gets weaker. Right now the only reason we're even 7th is because of that win over Alabama. If they're suddenly a 3-loss team then our resume is greatly damaged.
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Yes. Tennessee will get in over 2-loss SMU. Even if Alabama loses to LSU. No doubt. SMU has a pathetic schedule. Same for Indiana.

Tennessee won’t get in over 2-loss Alabama.
 
#27
#27
NighthawkVol said:
Because Alabama is competition for a playoff spot. And if it comes down to 10-2 Alabama vs. 10-2 Tennessee, they’ll take Alabama.

If Tennessee is one of only 3 SEC teams with 2 losses or less, we’re in. No matter how valuable our win over Bama looks.
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You're assuming when you say they'll take a 10-2 Alabama over us. Head to head results are one of the criteria the committee is obligated to honor along with conference championships. We've yet to see them rank a team with a similar record above another despite losing to them head to head. Just last year they rated Texas above Alabama for that very reason.

Also how do you know there will only be 3 SEC teams with 2 or less losses if Bama loses to LSU? A&M is still alive. They could win out. Same with LSU. That would mean Georgia, Texas, LSU, and A&M would have 2 or less losses. With our only quality win being devalued how do you wager we'll get in? Versus if Alabama beats LSU that eliminates a team we don't have an head to head victory while keeping alive the team we have the head to head win over bolstering our resume.
 
#28
#28
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
How does Vegas come up with lines before the season? How does the AP come up with preseason rankings? We use past events to predict future outcomes all the time. So when things are close you naturally give the benefit of the doubt to the team whose been there before and done it. Alabama has earned the right to get the benefit of the doubt when things are close based on their track record for the last 15 years.
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My point is it’s a year to year thing with college sports. There are roster changes and graduations. Nobody has earned anything before a season begins.
 
#29
#29
jaydhugs said:
You keep trying to apply logic to a situation where the deciding factor is not governed metrics and measurables—or logic. The whole thing, the college football apparatus, is about money. Bama might be a better bet for TV ratings. It might even be ILLOGICAL for the CFP—a money making, entertainment enterprise—to NOT choose a (hypothetical) 10-2 Bama over a (hypothetical) 10-2 Tennessee, if, say, there were one spot remaining.

I was simply pointing out of Basillo’s point, in summary form, but I’m sure you have already watched the video and dissected his argument, logically.
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It's unlikely to be just us and Bama for one spot. Right now Bama is in the playoff field with 2 losses. So if they win out and we lose to Georgia we would simply switch spots. The case would be for a team from behind taking one of us out. It wouldn't be a either or case between us and them because they're currently in the playoffs right now with 2 losses.
 
#31
#31
Besides, 2-loss Tenn and 2-loss LSU/Bama winner will both get in if UGA and Texas win out. LSU/Bama loser, OM, and A&M would all have 3 losses. The SEC will get 4 teams in.
 
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#32
#32
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
It's unlikely to be just us and Bama for one spot. Right now Bama is in the playoff field with 2 losses. So if they win out and we lose to Georgia we would simply switch spots. The case would be for a team from behind taking one of us out. It wouldn't be an either or case between us and them because they're currently in the playoffs right now with 2 losses.
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I would be hopeful for this situation, but I could definitely see an undefeated SMU moving up, in that case, to supplant us.
 
#33
#33
jaydhugs said:
Tony Basillo made an interesting point about wanting Bama to lose to LSU.
If you have cynical view regarding the preferential treatment Bama gets and the benefits of doubt they have received in the past, you want Bama to lose.

A 10-2 Bama with a win AT LSU, AT NIGHT likely has a more impressive resume than a (hypothetical) 10-2 Tennessee, even with the head to head. We have already seen how one playoff committee uses head-to-head match-ups to pick teams; see 2022. The Bama brand still has a national media draw—more so than Tennessee, even though we are moving into the forefront—they would get in over us.

Worth a watc.

Tony B Previews MSST
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We need Bama and OM to lose.
 
#34
#34
NighthawkVol said:
Exactly. What some don’t get is that our biggest competition for CFP spots is other SEC teams. The B1G sucks. The Big 12 and ACC are worse. There will only be 3-4 SEC teams in, depending on whether or not there are surprise champions in other conferences (for example, if SMU beat Miami in the ACCCG, the ACC then gets 2 instead of 1 and Miami takes an at-large).

So Tennessee needs to make sure it’s one of the 3 top SEC choices. Alabama is competition for that. So if we end up 10-2, we need Bama to lose to LSU, then LSU to lose to Vandy or Florida. We need Ole Miss to lose to Georgia and aTm to lose to Texas.

That leaves Georgia and Texas at 11-1 and playing for the SEC championship. Tennessee is 10-2. Every other SEC team has 3 or more losses. So we’re in. (Actually, Missouri might only have 2, but they’re not a concern because their schedule sucks).

Folks need to understand that we’re competing for a spot with these other SEC teams. Barring a surprise ACC or Big 12 champion, they’re not putting another team from those conferences over Tennessee, whether our best win, Alabama has 2 losses or 3.
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True. We're competing with other SEC teams. But there's already 4 SEC teams in the playoff field right now. Georgia, Texas, us, and Alabama. So why do we need to root against Alabama? Even if the logic is they'll jump us because the committee loves them. So what? We'll still be in the 12 team field as the fourth place SEC team.

What's the logic in rooting for LSU (a team currently outside the playoffs) to beat Alabama? They'll eliminate Alabama only to replace them as the fourth SEC team. The difference however would be unlike Alabama they wouldn't bolster our resume. So they would open the door for another SEC team like A&M to pass us if they go 10-2 OR a non-SEC team like SMU if our resume weakens as a result of Alabama being our only quality win.

No matter how you slice it there zero logic to rooting against Alabama this week. If you want Tennessee to make the playoffs you have to root for Alabama to win out.
 
#35
#35
NighthawkVol said:
We’ll lose in that scenario. 2022 is absolute proof of that. Not only did we have the head to head that season, but we also destroyed their other loss (LSU) by 30+. They still ranked Bama ahead of Tennessee in the CFP rankings. And Alabama didn’t even play the 2 teams we lost to.

We need LSU and Bama both to lose. Or just win out.
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We also lost by 30 to South Carolina. Embarrassing losses have a way of greatly damaging your resume. Alabama in 2022 lost on the road to us and LSU on walk off scores. A last second field goal against us and an overtime TD versus LSU.

Getting blown out by South Carolina is why Bama was rated above us.
 
#36
#36
NighthawkVol said:
Yes. Tennessee will get in over 2-loss SMU. Even if Alabama loses to LSU. No doubt. SMU has a pathetic schedule. Same for Indiana.

Tennessee won’t get in over 2-loss Alabama.
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Easy to say that now when we have a win over #11 Alabama on our resume. Also I just threw SMU out there cause they're currently the first team out. But the same could be true for A&M. If they beat Texas and go 10-2, why wouldn't they jump us at 10-2 with no longer having a quality win?

Alabama losing opens us up to having other teams from behind jumping us because our resume would weaken substantially.
 
#37
#37
NighthawkVol said:
We’ll lose in that scenario. 2022 is absolute proof of that. Not only did we have the head to head that season, but we also destroyed their other loss (LSU) by 30+. They still ranked Bama ahead of Tennessee in the CFP rankings. And Alabama didn’t even play the 2 teams we lost to.

We need LSU and Bama both to lose. Or just win out.
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And this year could look very similar to that 2022 situation. If we lose to Georgia but finish 10-2, we would have head to head over Bama as well as a win over their other loss. Another couple of possibilities to consider: if LSU, Georgia and A&M win out, LSU and A&M go to the SECCG over Georgia. winner gets the automatic bid. Does the loser get in with 3 losses? Then, Georgia is in with their one loss and you have Tennessee and Texas at 10-2. Who and how many get in? another scenario is if ole miss beats Georgia, Georgia beats us, Bama wins out, and A&M beats Texas. A&M would be in the CG. Good luck figuring out the tiebreaker for their opponent. Then, you have CG winner in, CG loser with three losses, and the other four sitting at 10-2. If we end up tied with both Georgia and Bama at 10-2, our head to head over Bama gets basically disregarded because all three teams beat each other. Both UGA and Bama would have a stronger resume.
 
#38
#38
Orange931 said:
My point is it’s a year to year thing with college sports. There are roster changes and graduations. Nobody has earned anything before a season begins.
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That sounds nice but it's not how human nature works. We give the credit based on past events. It's why Georgia or Ohio State don't get punished in the AP poll when they barely beat Kentucky and Nebraska but a team like us who doesn't have a track record of success gets punished when we beat Florida in OT. You might not like it but past performance affects how people view the present and how they predict future results.
 
#40
#40
So LSU beating our most impressive win secures TN a playoff spot over LSU? That doesn’t make a damn bit of sense. Whoever loses this game is out. Whoever wins has a leg up over TN due to SOS.
 
#41
#41
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
That sounds nice but it's not how human nature works. We give the credit based on past events. It's why Georgia or Ohio State don't get punished in the AP poll when they barely beat Kentucky and Nebraska but a team like us who doesn't have a track record of success gets punished when we beat Florida in OT. You might not like it but past performance affects how people view the present and how they predict future results.
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It’s how human nature should work, that’s just facts. What you’re explaining is delusion, that shouldn’t hold up in any argument.
 
#43
#43
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
We also lost by 30 to South Carolina. Embarrassing losses have a way of greatly damaging your resume. Alabama in 2022 lost on the road to us and LSU on walk off scores. A last second field goal against us and an overtime TD versus LSU.

Getting blown out by South Carolina is why Bama was rated above us.
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Getting blown out by South Carolina(and Hooker’s injury) gave the committee an excuse to rank Bama higher than us. It did not justify it.
 
#46
#46
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
They'll do what they did last year. Put Bama in and drag us along with them since we beat them. The only reason 1-loss Texas made the playoffs over undefeated FSU was because of their head to head win. The committee has proven they will honor head to head results. So yes Alabama will get the benefit of the doubt but so will we since we beat them.

No matter how yall try to spin it, there's zero logic to Alabama winning out being bad for us. It will only help our playoff case.
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That arky loss that you claimed would be our offensive breakout game hurt us. None of us can predict what's gonna happen in these games...might get lucky but nobody actually knows. Football is football.

Hesitantly, due to you disappearing, after boldly and over confidently claiming the 2015 season we were winning it all...I agree with you that we can have a great game against UGA and none of this will matter. Every player at every position, on the road, will need to be focused/confident/playing with swagger, then we won't need to worry about any of this because we win in Athens.

We COULD go 11-1 and be in Atlanta looking for a playoff bye. Our defense is good enough to give us that. We'll see
 
#47
#47
NetworkVol said:
That arky loss that you claimed would be our offensive breakout game hurt us. None of us can predict what's gonna happen in these games...might get lucky but nobody actually knows. Football is football.
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I never said the Arkansas game wouldn't hurt us in the rankings. I said it would galvanize our team and power us to a championship season. And if you are unaware we haven't lost since with wins over rivals Florida and Alabama. Two teams most on this board said we would lose to if we couldn't beat lowly Arkansas.

Losing early is better than losing late. I said it was better to get it out the way and have a focused team the rest of the way because they have no room for error moving forward.
 
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