I went back and looked at the schedules for TCU, Baylor, and Ohio State
then matched that up against the CFP Rankings from October 28th (the first CFP poll). Ill spare you the laborious journey, and summarize as briefly as I can:
- Ohio State loses to Va Tech, 35-21, on September 6th.
- Baylor beats TCU, 61-58, on October 11th.
- Baylor loses at WVU, 41-27, on October 18th.
- On October 28th, the first CFP poll is released. All three teams have one loss. And its TCU #7, Baylor #12, OSU #14. Its clear that the committee has already given more weight to Baylors loss to WVU than TCUs loss to Baylor. That debate is over, in the eyes of the committee, right out of the gate. From this point forward, Baylor is behind TCU in the CFP poll.
- On November 11th, its TCU (4), Baylor (7), OSU (8). Baylor has an open date on November 15th; OSU plays at Minnesota, and wins, 31-24.
- On November 18th, the CFP swaps Baylor and OSU. Now its TCU (5), OSU (6), and Baylor (7).The TCU, OSU, Baylor order is maintained from this point forward.
- If Ohio State gets in, then it will be Alabama (1), Oregon (2), FSU (3), Ohio State (4), TCU (5), and Baylor (6). The logic will be that Ohio State separated themselves with a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in a conference championship game. With no official conference championship game, and with 10-1 co-champions, TCU and Baylor and the Big 12 4 = 12 lose out.
- If so, the CFP has abandoned a position they have held since October 28th: that Ohio States 14 point loss at home to an unranked Virginia Tech team keeps them behind two other one-loss teams with equal or better resumes.
- Which would be wrong, but would not surprise me in the least.
Go Vols.